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2024 Election Issues and Campaigns

(@jeanne-mayell)
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Starting this topic now since someone asked about the Robert Kennedy Jr campaign. 


   
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(@mothersson2002)
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Just wondering if there are any predictions in regards to Robert Kennedy Jr's campaign in the 2024 election.


   
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(@tgraf66)
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My completely non-intuitive prediction is that he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of getting past the primary, if he even gets that far.


   
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(@raincloud)
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@tgraf66 

I agree. I met and spoke with Robert Kennedy Jr once, albeit, briefly roughly 35 years ago,  Based on his stiff, dour presence, my impression was, only an impression, that he was depressed. Paradoxically, he did good work with the Riverkeeper organization but then went off the rails with an anti-science, anti-vaccine obsession.

He comes from a complex family with emotional millstones. I hope he finds peace but someplace other than in the White House.


   
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(@jeanne-mayell)
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Agree with @traff66 that he hasn't any chance. He will be a minor blip in the campaigns. Agree with @raincloud's assessment about his psychological state, although many successful politicians are psychologically off balance for sure. But Kennedy is running as a democrat using a family name of some mighty solid (even though imperfect) politicians. And he doesn't share their solidity.

Also people are tired of inexperience in the White House. Trump cured a lot of people of that.   Kennedy has no  experience in running a city or state, and has never been publicly elected to anything.  At least Abraham Lincoln and Obama served in the Congress before running for president. 

Even Marianne Williams had more appeal, I felt, although no political experience. But at least she had symbolic appeal in that she could add a love message that had been sorely missing from politics. Many were glad she ran, even though I knew she didn't have a chance.

 


   
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(@jeanne-mayell)
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I just read the U.S. federal case against Trump. Before I read it, I thought he'd manage to beat DeSantis in the primaries. Now I'm not so sure. His only hope is if large numbers of people don't read it.

His own lawyers testified that he knew he was deliberately hiding sensitive documents that jeopardized U.S. security. How could anyone in any universe vote for someone who did that? 


   
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(@tgraf66)
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@jeanne-mayell The same way that 50 US Senators voted not to impeach him *twice* in spite of the evidence against him at the time.


   
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(@polarberry)
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@jeanne-mayell 

We were getting ice cream the other day, and there was this maggot in line, with the stupid hat and the Twitler 2024 t-shirt, the USA tattoo...it took everything I had to not say, you realize you support a deranged f*cking traitor? But, you know, these people are crazy and there is nothing you can say to them to sway them or even begin to evoke an intelligent thought process in their pea brains. These are people who think Hillary Clinton is holding children in cages in a pizza parlor, that Bill Gates is a lizard, that George Soros is the anti-Christ, that the COVID vaccine has a computer chip and Porky Pig's DNA in it....they are HOPELESS. It would be hysterically funny if it wasn't so frightening.


   
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(@april)
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@polarberry @jeanne-mayell 

Someone asked on Twitter the other day for a MAGA to explain why they would still vote for him after the indictment fell.

 

It was summed up in one sentence. “Because he pisses you off.”

It is not about who is best for this country, who will make the world better. They will vote for him because he pisses of liberals. And that is their only goal. They will cut their nose off to spite their face and not think twice.


   
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(@polarberry)
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@april 

Yep. And because he's the perfect flag-bearer for their hate, they couldn't care less about anything else.


   
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(@allyn)
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@jeanne-mayell 

I think you hit the nail on the head.  "If people READ it!"

As if Trump supporters would ever read anything that has even the remote possibility of being negative against the Ex Criminal In Chief.

I think next year will once again come down to Biden v. Trump.  Sad, I know, but it is what it is.  Personally, I like Biden.  Yes, I know he is boring as heck, and his age is an issue.  But so what?  I prefer the benevolent grandfather who keeps things at an even keel instead of a idiotic tyrant loving sexist (and convicted sexual predator of Ms. Carroll) who will dismantle the judicial system and spend the next four years trying to get back at all of his enemies instead of taking care of the country.

One third of the country is hard core Trumpists and there is no hope for them.  One third is very Anti-Trump (myself included).  That leaves the last third, the independents.

I NEED to hope that these voters, who will ultimately decide the fate of our country, will fear another round of Trump and/or suffer from Trump exhaustion that they will vote for Biden, if only because they fear Trump more than Biden.  One can only hope.

If Biden stays healthy, I think we will be ok.  Inflation is ever so slowly going down.  Ukraine is making progress against Russia (or at least are holding the line.)  The once-looming threat of a recession made by Republicans has never materialized.  I suspect things in this nation will stay the same and/or will actually get better by the time the primaries begin.  I sincerely doubt Trump will be convicted of anything be the time the election is held, even with the "rocket docket."  (Forget the fact that there is a Trump loving judge at the helm or the multiple issues for security for secret service.  My experience in the criminal justice system means that continuances will be granted to preserve the rights of defendants, which favors Trump's usual "continue as long as possible" strategy.)  We may even get lucky and Trump may quit a few months before the election due to "health issues." 

I actually see this as a distinct possibility, as Republicans keep banging the "Biden is too old" drum for so long.  Karma is a female, and it wouldn't surprise me if Trump suddenly suffered a health-related issue that took him out of the race.  Also, Trump may pull a "bad health" card if he thinks it is a graceful way out of losing (again) and may be beneficial for him if he is convicted (a sort of "don't put me in prison because I am too sick" ploy.)

Am I concerned that Biden would then lose to another Republican?  Nope.  Because Trump is utterly incapable of passing the torch to any other candidate.  Sure, he can endorse someone, but whoever it is will be the Trumpiest candidate possible, which will just turn off independent voters.  Also, I think we know a Trump endorsement is hardly a ringing endorsement anymore.

I think we need to send as much light to Biden to keep him healthy as he enters this fight for the country's future next year.  He fought Trump and won when so many others lost to this bully.  He deserves our support even if he doesn't excite or inspire us.  Sometimes the boring and dependable are like vegetables.  They may not be what we crave, but they are certainly what we need!


   
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(@mickiemac)
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Posted by: @allyn

I think we need to send as much light to Biden to keep him healthy as he enters this fight for the country's future next year.  He fought Trump and won when so many others lost to this bully.  He deserves our support even if he doesn't excite or inspire us.  Sometimes the boring and dependable are like vegetables.  They may not be what we crave, but they are certainly what we need!

Your last paragraph (and especially the last two sentences) are priceless!  Thanks for your most informative and worthwhile comment as always.

 


   
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(@kathleen-m)
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@jeanne-mayell


   
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(@kathleen-m)
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Interesting about DeSantis' recent polling numbers being twice lower compared to that of Trump's in Feb/23. He doesn't have much charisma and the only thing he talks about is anti-woke fanaticism. But, will Trump really be the nominee by 2024? Previous predictions were that Trump wouldn't be a contender at all, but has something changed in our most current outlook?

 


   
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(@ghandigirl)
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I don't think he will.  And I get annoyed when people do. Too much attention empowers him. I think turning our focus to Biden, and supporting his health and resolve is the best advice. 

Also I find Biden interesting. I call him Uncle Joe.  He feels like family to me. He's not a vegetable though, he is an ice cream cone. :)


   
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(@tgraf66)
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Again, this a completely non-intuitive take on this. I do think TFG will be the candidate, but he will be removed from the race in the last few months. My reasoning is as follows.

There are many talking heads who seem to think the trial will not begin before the end of 2023 and will not be completed before the election. I can't argue with the beginning date since I tend to agree there will be delays due to pre-trial motions/appeals and other normal legal maneuvering. If Cannon is removed it will be during or shortly after this period, likely as a result of her trying to give TFG too much time/leeway. That part may take as long as six to 8 months.  However, once it begins, it will happen quickly. @cindy's post here contains this little nugget:

Will his trial be delayed because the special counsel has to file for removal of the judge? Nope. Some legal minds that I've been reading say this has already been thought of before charges were filed. CIPA (Classified Information Procedures Act) requires swift action when protected information is at the heart of an issue. In a nutshell, Jack Smith can override delays that Canon may try to interject because of the sensitivity of the materials.

In other words, once all the pre-trial stuff is out of the way, there can be no delays in the trial. I expect it will be over by early to mid-June of 2024. Assuming he is convicted (very likely, barring a miracle), he would not be eligible to hold office even if elected per Amendment 14, Section 3, and he would be forced to leave the race. There is no way the R's can get a candidate ready to take his place in the 5 months remaining before the election.

There are those who will contend that if he were elected, he would have to be impeached/removed, but they seem to be forgetting that while Article 2 of the Constitution does say that, an amendment changes and supersedes the original text. If he is convicted and declared ineligible (which would probably be decided by SCOTUS), he couldn't assume the office and therefore would not need to be impeached.

 

 


   
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(@kathleen-m)
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@ghandigirl 

Thanks for your insight. I feel like I know Biden. My husband went to HS with Jill Biden, and she's a fine person. After this roller coaster election is over, let's hope we have a period where we can trust the people in office to do their job and move us forward as a country.


   
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(@kathleen-m)
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@tgraf66 

Interesting and thanks for the input that Jack Smith can override any delays. I haven't read Amendment 14, Section 3, but have heard it discussed by legal eagles, and they say that it's unlikely that the Amendment can be invoked without prolonged entanglement. According to the analysts, the Amendment has never been tested, so even if it's invoked, the issue would likely not be settled in enough time to prevent Trump from being a candidate or even winning the election. And, without a law that specifically prevents it, anyone can become a candidate or President regardless of a felony conviction. Glad to hear your thoughts -- I'd be glad to be wrong about this :)


   
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(@tgraf66)
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Posted by: @kathleen-m

@tgraf66 

Interesting and thanks for the input that Jack Smith can override any delays. I haven't read Amendment 14, Section 3, but have heard it discussed by legal eagles, and they say that it's unlikely that the Amendment can be invoked without prolonged entanglement. According to the analysts, the Amendment has never been tested, so even if it's invoked, the issue would likely not be settled in enough time to prevent Trump from being a candidate or even winning the election. And, without a law that specifically prevents it, anyone can become a candidate or President regardless of a felony conviction. Glad to hear your thoughts -- I'd be glad to be wrong about this :)

Here's the relevant text from the 14th Amendment.

Section 3.
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

You may have heard that the 14th would be difficult to implement with regard to Section 4, which pertained to the debt ceiling. Section 3 is a completely different kettle of fish. It's likely that a Federal District Court might get it first, but it would ultimately end up in front of SCOTUS, and given the pressure of an impending election, SCOTUS would be under the gun to get it decided quickly, so no, it would not necessarily mean a "prolonged entanglement". In addition, SCOTUS can't declare it unconstitutional because it's in the Constitution, and even a compromised SCOTUS couldn't miss the abundantly clear wording.

The 14th Section 3 has actually been tested successfully at the state level in New Mexico last year, so it would not be completely unprecedented, though I will concede the office of POTUS would be a much more high profile test. On the other hand, why bother having it if we're too scared to test it?

 


   
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(@kathleen-m)
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@tgraf66 

Let's hope that Jack Smith can get a timely insurrection conviction. I'd feel more encouraged about this if the last sentence of the 14 Amendment, Section 3 didn't state: "But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability". I can easily see our current Congress voting to remove the "disability" if pursued. 


   
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