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Predictions for the Decades Ahead

(@dannyboy)
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I wouldn't doubt this is a Tesla thing but - I'm not certain EVs have been around long enough for us to know the true cost of repairs long term.  (And note part of this cost was proprietary software -- we have GOT to figure out how to standardize/allow generic replacement or car manufacturers will take us all to the cleaners)

https://gizmodo.com/finnish-man-passes-on-paying-22-600-to-replace-his-tes-1848268874  

Though - do not get me wrong, as these things come off the lines there's a lot of us ready to go this route.  And it's not like their non EV competition is much better (I was a GM owner my entire life but I drive a TON for work and I had a Saturn Vue blow its transmission at 100K miles, which was then replaced with a Chevy Traverse which blew its transmission at 100K miles and was followed up by a GMC Acadia that... you guessed it ... blew its transmission (and most of the electrical system - all told close to $8K in damages on that last one.  Talk about wanting to blow up a car) at ... wait for it... 100K miles.  I will never buy another GM vehicle again.)

As any vehicle ages the cost to repair tends to get greater. 

My "mid life crisis" mobile is going to be one of the first EV Dodge Challengers - I ended up with one as a rental when I nearly totaled my Jeep Cherokee in 2019 and I'd never had more fun in my life.  2024 is just around the corner :-)   Fun, affordable, and all electric in 2024!


   
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(@jeanne-mayell)
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@raincloud I thank you for bringing this up. I am grateful to have you posting here because I know you bring a robust understanding of this whole sustainability issue.

I want to ask you about it. Are we facing a tricky cart and horse problem here with electrifying our transportation and our home heating and cooling? On the one hand, we need for people to start buying electric cars  and heating and cooling their homes with heat pumps to reduce fossil fuel burning. On the other hand, if the demand for this sustainable energy goes viral then we may have the problems you raise in storing and having enough!   Could it be that they need to see the high demand for electric power first  to get their butts moving to meet it?

In my town some of the republicans who are against sustainable energy altogether keep harping on that issue as a reason why we shouldn’t offer incentives for people to heat and cool with heat pumps. But the demand for electricity is so tiny right now that we are just trying to get it going to redevelop carbon emissions.  

My thought is we will solve these problems once the demand takes off. 


   
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(@jeanne-mayell)
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@dannyboy I have friends with 5 year old Chevy volts. Now I was never a fan of American cars because they have a reputation of breaking so easily but my volt friends say they have never had a repair.

And it makes sense because gas cars have many more

moving parts to break. about 900 moving parts while electric cars have about 90 moving parts,  which is why mechanics expect they won’t be needed as much one EV’s take off. 
From the Wall Street journal: “Electric vehicles are simpler mechanically than gas-powered ones. Their drivetrains employ fewer than 20 moving parts, compared with hundreds for the gas-powered version. And auto makers can use essentially the same layout of battery cells and motors to power a range of vehicles.”

Sorry I can’t find the link for that article on my iPhone. While  searching for it, I noticed articles announcing that Detroit carmakers appear to be phasing out gas powered cars. 


   
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(@dannyboy)
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@jeanne-mayell GM has burned their bridges with me - my wife’s Jeep Cherokee has well over 130K on it and hasn’t had a single issue.  And I’m at 40 with my Cherokee - though I nearly totaled it and the whole thing got rebuilt (including engine) at 18K.  Otherwise though I’ve been happy with the dependability, and I’ve coaxed 31 MPG out of it on a semi regular basis which was a nice change from the Traverse and Acadia.

I will not go back to GM ever - but I am impressed with the roadmap Jeep/Dodge/Chrysler has for all EV!  Definitely excited for the future of driving :-) 

I’ll let you all know how my EV midlife crisis mobile adventure turns out when I get there!


   
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(@raincloud)
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Posted by: @jeanne-mayell

@raincloud

Could it be that they need to see the high demand for electric power first  to get their butts moving to meet it?

In my town some of the republicans who are against sustainable energy altogether keep harping on that issue as a reason why we shouldn’t offer incentives for people to heat and cool with heat pumps.

My thought is we will solve these problems once the demand takes off. 

Energy is a big topic and a dry one for some.  Should wenmove this conversation to the Climate Change thread?

I agree with your last statement; as the demand rises for electricity, yes, the energy storage issue will have to be solved. As energy efficient appliances came on the market, the demand for electricity from utilities in the US leveled or declined so that right now in many states, there is room for increased demand. However, a growing concern is meeting the demand for energy during peak load times in the summer when air conditioners are cranking especially as higher summer temperatures become normal. The good news is that solar panels work best in the summer, so solar arrays can help offset that demand from utilities provided that a modern grid can fully integrate and distribute the power the solar arrays generate.

According to an economist (a wonderful guy) who worked in the Obama administration, Biden has a pretty good grasp of energy issues; Biden called him into his office every week to inquire about the levelized cost of energy. The new infrastructure bill should address some of the electric grid infrastructure problems but it won't be inexpensive. In addition to storage, we need high powered transmission lines to cross the country to take wind and solar energy from where it is generated to where it is needed but there will be some environmental and domain challenges in so doing.

The same economist referenced above, calculated that the least economically efficient energy subsidy is for electric vehicles. New technologies need incentives to help launch them and increase consumer uptake, however, and I am a big fan of heat pumps. If you look at the data offered by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, Republican voters often agree with promoting green energy and energy efficiency to both avoid waste and to reduce dependence on foreign sources of energy. However, Republican politicians(some Dems, too) often fail to keep incentives in place long enough to allow businesses to become established. The wind industry has been incredibly hampered by fluctuating federal tax incentives and we would be much further along with consistent energy policies.

The US seems to be on the cusp of a big energy transition. A price on carbon in the form of a tax or fee would offer a huge boost in aiding this switch away from fossil fuels.

For the readers here, individual action is important but collective action is more effective. Please let your governmental representatives on all levels know that you support action on green energy and climate change. They do note those online polls and signatures on petitions as well as letters and phone calls.

 


   
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 PamP
(@pamp)
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@jackofhearts This is exactly why I'm looking at EVs. There's not many charging stations where I am (yet) but they are popping up in Boise. Friends that have EVs just rave about them. With rapid chargers, it takes a short time to charge, and there's a company in Europe (ABB) that plans on expanding the rapid charging units here in the US. Depending on the car, it's possible to fully charge in 15 minutes. That sounds good to me. 


   
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