Donald Trump's upcoming meeting with Putin

I'm thinking that Putin will use the summit to remind Trump that he has not kept up his end of the bargain, putting Trump under even more pressure. And since Trump handles pressure so well, who knows what will happen.

Putin might also remind Trump that Russia has a ream of compromising information on him. A few months ago I saw a piece about an NSA whistle blower who claimed that one part of the Steele dossier that he had the most faith in was the sex tape allegation. He claimed that there were a number of Trump sex tapes in the hands of foreign governments that the NSA knew about. The man is just too naive to realize that he is being setup. 

It will be interesting to see what Putin does after he reaches the conclusion that Trump isn't valuable any longer.

I get the feeling that there will be much flattery from P. mixed with some subtle hints of consequences if T. does not come through with what is expected of him and what the Russians feel they paid for. This would, of course, all be done with a smile. From T.’s  side, I get the desire to please P. and ensure that he continues to profit well from the arrangement. I sense some apprehension from T.’s side.

Ultimately, when T. has served his purpose for them and becomes publicly toxic, my guess is that they will release embarrassing/damaging information that they have on him. 

I'm not so much focused on the meeting with Putin as I am on the NATO meeting in Brussels that will occur right before it.  I believe that Trump's actions during that two day meeting will set the course for world events going forward.  

If Trump behaves as badly during the NATO meeting as he did during the G7 meeting, European allies will have no choice but to start seriously planning how to go forward without the U.S.   There has already been some reports that that is being discussed among European leaders (the head of the EU Council actually sent out a letter saying this specifically, according to UK press reports).

Trump may behave a bit better in public at NATO because Mattis will be there to reel him in, but my intuition says that behind closed doors, Trump's behavior will not reassure our European allies and they will start more seriously discussing how to solve "the Trump problem".   Scheduling the meeting with Putin for immediately after NATO was not about travel convenience; it was about Trump upstaging NATO and that in itself sends a message to other NATO countries that if they don't want to play by Trump's rules, he still has his buddy Putin on his side.  

I think that when we look back in the future, the NATO meeting may mark the beginning of a big change of course in the world's direction -- and America's place in the world -- more than Trump's meeting with Putin.   

Paul, Baba, you two are right, Putin doesn’t view Trump highly. Likely, more scandal revelations will be exposed and that Putin will care about internal conflicts. Just like Zoron said, there will be surprises in the midterms. I Spence the house will flip.

RosieHeart, given the state of America, the fact that Trump is actively trading intelligence with Putin, et bloody cetera, it is for the best if Europe regards us as no longer in the NATO fold, and works together without us. That's their best chance for securing their borders against Putin's meddling in their own countries.

IMHO they should stop sharing intelligence with the US. And treat us like the pariah state we have become. All they have to do to avoid repercussions from the US is tell tRump how wonderful he is....

It's gonna be several years before we are a worthy ally again. 

Posted by: RunestoneOne

RosieHeart, given the state of America, the fact that Trump is actively trading intelligence with Putin, et bloody cetera, it is for the best if Europe regards us as no longer in the NATO fold, and works together without us. That's their best chance for securing their borders against Putin's meddling in their own countries.

IMHO they should stop sharing intelligence with the US. And treat us like the pariah state we have become. All they have to do to avoid repercussions from the US is tell tRump how wonderful he is....

It's gonna be several years before we are a worthy ally again. 

Thank you for this, RunestoneOne.  I suppose I have been secretly hoping that our European allies will somehow find a way to save us from the mess we're in.    But, you're right: we've already moved from a leadership role to a secondary role in our allies' minds; I cannot blame them for wanting to protect themselves.  We would do the same if the situation was reversed.   

There is also this news today - Trump is saying privately that he plans to leave the World Trade Organization.   http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-leave-world-trade-organization-wto-2018-6      

I don't think Trump has been blackmailed by Russia, simply because I don't think it's possible to blackmail Trump. He's too volatile to stay blackmailed, no matter what Putin has on him (and I'm sure he does).

Putin's main goal here is trying to stop the US involvement in Syria. He has a proposal for how to deal with the conflict in Southern Syria that the Israelis are willing to accept. He'd also like to disengage the US from Ukraine, but he know he isn't going to advance much on that front. Trump will initially go with Putin's ideas but then he'll go all over the place with confusing statements, and put things back to square one.

Trump will propose some sort of weapons deal that will be so ill-thought that it will be a total non-starter.

So, overall, the meeting won't achieve much. But Putin will get the opportunity to do a domestic propaganda turnaround with this visit, and convince the Russian people that Trump is no longer somebody who wants to do deals with Russia, which will give him an opening to start demonizing him.