Currently I am not sure what to think or believe any more, Ukraine seems to trigger something:-(
But after Trump has gone I was thinking that now will come a time that one by one all dictators will fall(in a way Trump acted as he was a dictator). Russia , Brazil, China, Middle-East, Poland, Hungary etc
Regarding your questions:
- Does anyone have any predictions for the future of Hong Kong and Tibet? Will China back away?
- Not on a short term, In general, until the end of this century the China as we know now might disappear in smaller ( still large in population) countries like Mongolia, Tibet And Quandong ( plus Hongkong and Macau)
- Will China's economic growth continue and will it overtake the United States?
- I think there will be a very bad recession, also due to China´s support of Russia, in our company we let now all metalwork produce in South-Korea and not China . And the war is a wakeup all that we need to keep production in our own countries as well. With the oil prices it will not be that cheap any more to produce in China.
- And with a declining economy , people will be suffering , and eventually protest
- Will the relationship with the West and China be repaired in the future?
- In 10 to 15 years, first we might see an iron curtain in China again, when people start protesting the a revolution
- But by then I hope that Russia is a democracy, part of NATO ( I really believe this) and we will have a better way that the world lives together. But maybe that is only a dream ...
- Will China return to its spiritual roots?
- The now 15 - 30 years old will rediscover the old values ( also seen in South-Korea and Japan) , not the wrong old way ( Like one ruler, strict hierarchies), but the spiritual roots.
These are of course just my thoughts on China, woudl be very interesting what other thinks
@tbs thank you for taking the time to answer my questions.
I think it is indeed sad that the world has to suffer more pain before it begins to find a new way forward that is more inclusive, democratic and free. I feel sad for the people who are going to suffer (or are suffering) because of dictators who are hell bent on seeing through their expansion of power and dominance, over democracy and freedom.
But I do live in hope, that those old power structures such as China and Russia that have all the attributes of the old former Empires of the past, will emerge into something better as we enter this new paradigm shift. Even the UK wil emerge as something different in coming years.
I would really like to see a revamp of the United Nations similar to what occured after WW2. We need to create a new framework and come up with better solutions for how we can globally work together better to preserve freedom and peace, but also tackle injustices such as food shortages, medical aid, climate change etc. We also need a better golobal initiative to tax oil and gas companies so that we can invest this back into cleaner energy infrastructure, rather than taxing people even more and allowing these companies to price gauge and exploit them as well (which is happening right now).
I have gotten a bit off-topic, but I guess it is hard not see China and Russia not as one, especially when they both share and create similar aspirations and implications on the world and their people.
@luminous Through quick scans, I have been getting that China will back off from Taiwan and Hong Kong. I saw that the Cultural Revolution will be reversed and the ancient culture of benevolence, virtue, and Confucianism will come back. The relationship between China and the US will be repaired. In fact, I do see President Xi falling from office as early as this year.
@enkasongwriter thank you for doing that. I don't know if anyone here is from Hong Kong or Taiwan, but I hope that bit of information will hopefully ease some of their concerns.
Important to remember that Xi is not Putin - i.e., he's not a psychopath and not cynical. He really does what he believes in.
What I believe/feel is that China will make a big show of their military exercises for a couple of weeks and then will back off.
A vision I had a long time ago involved a young Iranian woman getting into a bed, in her full chador, with Kim Jong-Un. Another vision I had around the same time was Washington DC in ruins, with many military people from another country, all Asian, in charge of things.
I think combined these visions speak to how the autocracies are, for the first time in history, uniting in different ways to bring down the US and West and dominate globally. So even though right now Russia, China, and Iran are being very secrety cooperative, Russia and China both do not want Iran to gain the upper hand, neither does the US.
So I think China will not really attack Taiwan, and I agree with what @enkasongwriter said a few months back.
Thanks for sharing @laura-f
I have a friend in Taiwan, I have asked them quite a lot about China and Taiwan. I said to them "aren't you scared that you would lose all the benefits of your current modern healthcare and democracy?" - but she seemed to think it didn't matter if China took Taiwan, and that it would take many years to change. I didn't voice my concern anymore to her, because she takes a very Pro China view, and seems to be unaware and unconcerned of the ramifications, but obviously I can't help but feel concerned.
It is a shame to see what is happening, I thought at one stage before Xi Jinping came along in 2013, that his predecessor, Hu Jintao, had actually made efforts to make China more Westernised. When Xi Jinping came in, the whole nationalism movement took over more with a very aggressive Pro China political strategy - I think this is also when many internationals living in China started to notice they were no longer welcome and unable to study and live there like before under Hu Jintao.
I hope one day China returns to a less aggressive nationalist stance, and we can all work together in the world to tackle global issues such as climate change, food shortages, and renewable energy technologies.
@luminous I had a thought that maybe your Taiwanese friend is being circumspect in their email messages in case of monitoring. You just never know.
Hi @maggieci
I think it is more because some of her family is from mainland China and they are more sympathetic to China's view on Taiwan.
I have been kind of distant with her the last week or so because I found it difficult to agree with some of those things she was talking about. I didn't want to say anymore to her so we haven't spoken. I just did not want to create any arguments, especially since it isn't my life or culture (who am I to have an opinion on something I know very little about?).
To give another perspective on the poltical problems with China (and this is only ancedotal), a family from Hong Kong recently moved in next door to my sister. They moved to the UK to escape the growing political situation in Hong Kong with China. This was made possible due to the UK allowing a special Visa grant for people in Hong Kong wanting to leave Hong Kong. I don't know the full details but it makes it easier for them to apply for citizenship here.
I think there is a lot more brewing in the background than we realise in the West. I have heard there also might yet be more economic turbulence for China concerning the property investment bubble.
@luminous Thank you for asking this question. I am from Taiwan so the reading does help ease the anxiety. There are two major political parties, one pro China and the other pro independence. The pro independence party has won the last several elections, which tells you what the majority think. Taiwanese people have this resilient, irrepressible streak in their spirit so it will take bloodshed for China to take it over by force. The small island has thrived despites China's attempt to isolate the country. I hope the people will be all right.
Thank you for sharing @drolma
That makes sense. I guess my friend is more in favour of the pro China movement.
I love a lot of East Asian culture. I love reading and watching videos about ancient Japan, China, Singapore and Taiwan. I am fascinated by it all and it was through that I met my friend from Taiwan online.
This might sound weird, but I think I have had a spiritual connection to East Asia for quite a while. I am not sure exactly what it means, but I have had a number of personal vivd dreams over the years that have made that connection stronger. How much of that is real or just random I don't know...
@drolma Considering that China has used its economic might instead of warring with its neighbors it seems highly unlikely that they would ever need to use real force on Taiwan. Isn’t about 75% of all the trade/GDP of Taiwan directly tied to China? Apparently the Taiwan government claims that China is abusing them if China even suggests that they will stop trading since Taiwan is so “independent”and doesn’t need them. This very much reminds me of the Cubans in Florida who will never get over the $$$ and land they lost in the Castro revolution. It is now 3 generations away. Taiwan has much the same attitude because that is where refugees from Mao escaped to after that revolution. Never underestimate generational anger and hate.
@danielle Actually the people escaped China and their descendents like myself are more likely to be pro-China because of our upbringing and the facts we still have relatives on mainland. The "native" Taiwanese came after the Manchurians invaded China. They were quite a resistance force back then. When the Nationalists took over Taiwan from Japan after WWII, they jailed and executed many Taiwanese elites, who and whose descendents became the leaders of the pro-dependence camp. I don't know about hatred, but we surely do not trust China, after all they have threatened Taiwan with invasion since the Nationalists arrived. Taiwanese enjoy the freedom of criticizing their government and establishments. Remember the fist fights so common in the Taiwanese parlimentary meetings? That's the spirit I was referring to.
@drolma (of course you know all this) after looking up stuff in Wiki it seems even more complex…4 centuries of Han migration to Taiwan, almost total displacement of the indigenous population (who are the apparent progenitors of much of Malaysia). The Han who came after Mao are just a fraction of the totality. The basic difficulty is that Taiwan is so close to the mainland. If they could have had more distance (like Japan) this may not have become such an issue.
This is sort of relevant to the discussion abput China:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62482141
US invests $280bn in high tech to compete with China
I was wondering if this will cause damage to China's economy since many tech products like Apple are manufactured in China or perhaps the US is anticipating disruption to the semi-conductor supply and other hardware chains in Taiwan by China?
Which brings me to my next question, is China going to go through more sanctions and will more of the world turn away and shun China? The reason I ask is becauss it looks they are building relationships all around the world and doing deals with lots of different countries that the US used to do deals with like for example some of the countries in Africa. China appears to be lending them money and helping them build infrastructure, which is what the US had formerly agreed to do but for some reason or another lost out to China on.
If I am being honest, I think this business of China is going to continue for some time. I think there is a lot of deals going on all around the world behind the scenes with China. I think there might even be a few big surprises on that revealed later this year from countries that the US thought was one of their strongest allies or least likely to deal directly with China. It is also possible that China may have even infilitrated Washington in some way based on the vision of @laura-f - or it may mean the US (specifically those in Washington) are unable to keep as much control over Taiwan as they want to and may also lose global support on their position over Taiwan.
But on another subject, we should also keep an eye on India - it looks like there could be more border skirmishes with China there in the future and India looks set to grow economically really fast over the coming years.
China appears to be lending them money and helping them build infrastructure, which is what the US had formerly agreed to do but for some reason or another lost out to China on.
This is the New Silk Road policy that China has been using for decades. They loan money to 2nd & 3rd world countries to build modern infrastructure - a deep water port, for example - under the guise of helping these poor nations modernize themselves. Part of the terms of the loan is that while China will hire locals for unskilled and semi-skilled labor - which helps the local gov'ts brag about how many jobs they've "created" - all of the skilled labor, architects, engineers, and administration for the project is strictly limited to Chinese nationals. That way, the port is designed and built to Chinese specifications, not what the host country might actually need or want, but they can still brag about having a modern port. Oh, and the rest of the world praises China for its "international relations and goodwill".
Another part of the loan terms is that the collateral for the loans is the port itself. China knows that the countries they are doing these loans and projects for have governments that are known to be either 1) at least marginally if not completely corrupt, and that any money loaned to these countries will be quickly squandered and/or embezzled, or 2) too poor or unstable economically to ever repay the loans even under generous terms. When the time comes for payments to be made, lo and behold, the country suddenly doesn't have the money to pay, so under the terms of the loan, the port - as collateral - reverts to full Chinese ownership and control. It's all perfectly legal and well documented in the loan contract, so there's nothing the host country can do about it. China now has a deep water port in another country that they wouldn't have been able to negotiate for otherwise without raising international suspicion or objections, and they've done it with their own money (which they would have had to do anyway), and the cherry on top is that host nation is now beholden to them. This is exactly how China has built almost all of it's New Silk Road.
Thanks for the detailed explanation @tgraf66 - I forgot about the New Silk Road policy.
I am also concerned as a Westerner that we in the West are in decline. That may seem selfish, but I look at how fractured things are becoming in the UK and US and also in the European Union, and I see we are not as strong in unity as we once were.
Over the course of the next decade, which nation will be the leader of the Free World? I ask because our democracies seem less free and many times seem more corrupted and fractured, and as mentioned by @laura-f, it appears autocracies are having the upper hand in different places around the world.
China, China, China!
Keep watching. I had this feeling earlier this year.
Also, it seems many of the things people have spoken about in this thread are starting to unfold.