@coyote was writing recently that global warming is exponential. Exponential growth means that most of the growth happens subtlety, unseen, then explodes suddenly, seemingly without warning, as when something goes viral. This article explains how exponential growth works for anyone who doesn't know, or wants to know a way to explain it to others.
We all saw exponential growth during the pandemic. One day there were just a few cases, and then suddenly without warning, there were thousands of new cases a day. The point is that by the time we start noticing something that is growing exponentially, it may be about to explode in size.
While thinking in terms of exponential growth is daunting, remember that while the climate events may be surging, so too is progressive action. Both the bad and the good move exponentially. I just want to help a critical mass of people to be aware of how exponential growth works, so they can spawn progressive action as early as possible.
Last weeks' two events: the Florida coastal high rise collapse and the heat dome in the northwest and in Russia feel to me like the beginning of global warming spike.
Exponential growth won't tell us exactly when the next heat dome will happen or how high the temperatures will rise. But it is a sign of spiking climate events.
Exponential growth is counter intuitive which is why many won't wake up until it is heavily upon them. I don't know why I knew back in 2010 that the climate predictions the IPCC* was making for the year 2100 were way too conservative, but I knew. I also knew at the beginning of this year that we were in another surge of climate events.
Don't listen to people who say the northwest temperature dome was an aberration. I read one article that made that claim. No, we are in a new normal.
Don't freak out either! Initially freaking out is understandable, but it's not helpful. I was pretty upset at first, so I cuddled my dog and called loved ones until my head came back to my body. I tried not to post doomsday scenarios here or elsewhere and I beg of you not to do that either. If you are sensitive, how can you not feel upset at times? But when I come to my senses, I see the positives that are happening as well. I see how these events are changing our civilization to a kinder more caring collective. I also know that human action, once it takes off, is also exponential. The difficult events are the reason we came here. So let's open our eyes to what is happening and let's rise together.
So does anyone have any ideas about exponential growth and climate change and how people can prepare short term and how we can help work towards longer term change?
As a very short term action, I'm going to get more air conditioners and start researching how well our basement would keep us cool during a heat spike. I'm also going to ask our town how they will prepare for such an event.
* International Panel on Climate Change
Excellent thought on asking your town how they will prepare. Power grids are really going to be put through their paces in the future aren't they?
@jeanne-mayell I'm going to start speaking up more, even if it is unwelcome. I want to find a way to be more compelling about the need for climate action without causing panic or starting a fight. I need a more positive but strong approach.
Lytton, a town in western Canada burned because of the high temps last week. The author sites Ms Miller as being brave because she had been thinking climate change is only affecting places like Miami but last weeks events showed otherwise. Worth reading the entire piece for sure.
“Ms. Miller’s brave admission is an invitation to us all. Consciously or not, our tendency to register unpleasant and frightening information intellectually, while holding it at bay emotionally, is one way we defend ourselves from the fear and discomfort caused by what is happening all around us, right now, in real time.”
I spent last week in Spokane. For three days the heat was brutal. In the sun you felt like you were burning alive. We spent most of the day in the hotel, only going out early morning or after the sun went down, and even then the heat was oppressive.
The bad news is too many people still don't take it seriously, and most big corporations don't give a damn as long as their money's good.
The good news is the more frequent climate events become, the more scared people will get, and that will be a huge motivating factor. There are also amazing advancements being made to fight climate change, water scarcity and food inequality. There are still many bright stars among us. Thank God for science.
@jeanne-mayell Yes, it is overwhelming. I cannot remember a time (except maybe before I was 6 or so) when I have not felt conscious and overwhelmed by what I knew humans were doing to their habitat via overpopulation, pollution, forest destruction and later on (like in the late 70's-- which is way earlier than most people had a clue), greenhouse gases. A lot of it had to do with where I grew up (rural central Florida- which was being systematically destroyed). A lot had to do with being educated and informed by some really smart teachers from day one.
And I know a lot about all this sh*t because of my heavy-duty education in earth science. Sh*t is real. But no one wants to believe it. No one even wants to face the concept that even maybe if the consequences aren't 100% inevitable, why not invoke risk management principles JUST IN CASE? I've always been made to feel like effing "Chicken Little". Still am, by many.
It eats at me every day, all the time, and it is getting worse as the news gets worse. My position gives me a small platform from which I can try to educate a few and I try to feel good about that but I know it is not enough. Until people wake the hell up and value the "good of the many" over their personal short-term wealth and status, things are unlikely to change. (This applies not only to climate change, but to pretty much all the ills of the world.)
Excuse the venting-- my brother's passing a few weeks ago took my normally high anxiety levels up to an even higher baseline and I can hardly even think about the world anymore.
Tree planting is a movement I'd like to see go viral this year. Look what they do in India! Indians plant 250 million saplings amid mass campaign.
Fall is a great time to plant trees. Trees not only eat carbon and clean the air, but they create shade and when the sun's rays get hot, trees and all plant life sweat out water which in turn keeps the air from getting too dry.
BTW, the next time you see sunflower sales -- our Whole Foods is promoting their sunflower plans right now -- ask them if these are pollinators or sterilized sunflowers. Do not buy sterilized sunflowers. Bees need pollinator plants to survive and we need bees to survive - spread the plants' sperm to other plants and help our planet thrive.
This morning's Boston Globe: Why some of these tall beauties are not the bees Knees
First, right now is a time for healing. You can better help heal the world when you take care of yourself and spend time nurturing yourself.
Second, the more we all recognize how strongly we are all connected, the more we can make inroads by getting people to change their practices in one country which in turn impacts another country positively. That in turn has an impact on another country. People are realizing just how connected we are and this is a big step.
Covid has helped show how connected we all are globally and how dependent we are on the good health of all countries. If India is dealing with a bad outbreak, it will cause waves around the world unless we address what is going on in India quickly. The same can be said in large degree with climate change. Toxic waist in Nebraska will find its way to the ocean and contribute to issues in every state along the pathway and even once in the sea.
Of course, you already know this and have been trying to wake other up for some time. I am sensing a big change in the making right now. There is a growing swell forming. Each drop of water in a glass helps the level rise.
Keep dropping that water Ana. Everyone, keep dropping the water.
First, right now is a time for healing. You can better help heal the world when you take care of yourself and spend time nurturing yourself.
I ordered a new pair of running shoes yesterday hoping to burn off some stress by getting back into running. The expense will be motivating.
Of course, you already know this and have been trying to wake other up for some time. I am sensing a big change in the making right now. There is a growing swell forming. Each drop of water in a glass helps the level rise.
Keep dropping that water Ana. Everyone, keep dropping the water.
You're right and I keep telling myself the same thing . I think I read the news too much.
@ana Dear Ana, Thank you for your post and for reminding us that you are still here and dealing with such a difficult loss. Sending you all love and care.
Thank you Jeanne. ❤️
Good article. This is another one that basically says the same thing: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/26/what-the-coronavirus-curve-teaches-us-about-climate-change-148318.
I would add that for anyone living on the coast, its a good idea to get out of the path of tropical cyclones, even if initial forecasts are tepid; at the very least, have a go bag ready. A lot of storms from now on will strengthen shockingly fast before they make landfall, and anyone within 30-50 feet of sea level (and especially along rivers) will be endangered by the storm surge. I read a book last week about the 2011 Great Tohoku Tsunami, and a lot of the victims either thought they were far enough away from the ocean that they didn't need to evacuate to higher ground, or they went to government evacuation centers that were barely above sea level and were therefore inundated by the wave. This is all a part of exponentiality and the real world throwing up conditions we never encountered before.
Don't be the slug who is happily chugging along but then finally looks up and sees a moving mountain of salt approaching.
This is my first post but this Forum has buoyed me for over a year now, so thank you all. (I mistakenly thought I registered as Rainbow but did so as Raincloud).
Longish story to frame my frustration.
In the early 1990s, Jim Hansen, the climate scientist, kindly responded to my daughter's query for information about climate change. He sent her scientific articles with kind, hand-written notes on them. The content floored me. He predicted that if global warming were not curtailed, there will be "a refugee problem on a scale the world has never seen." Intuitively, I felt that sea-level rise would be a huge risk and that it would happen relatively quickly.
I began to see the world through a climate science lens. Few computers were in use so I went to Columbia U. to collect many papers published by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, put together an old fashioned slide show and began to give presentations. I had no one to talk to about climate change for years. In 2005, I entered a Master's program in an environmental program but was disappointed to find myself the single, passionate climate-focused student. And, unbelievably, a professor teaching a climate science course, asked me during class to report the current atmospheric concentration of CO2 because he didn't know.
When Al Gore's, "The Inconvenient Truth" was released, I thought, "Whew, I can relax, now everyone will know." Silly me.
So, after years of working on many things climate, I can tell you that things are not going well. Many climate scientists are deeply alarmed but it goes against their academic culture to sound the alarm. No one expected it to occur at this pace and...it is accelerating as the recent heat dome illustrates. Conversely, efforts to mitigate climate change are proceeding very slowly.
This is the kicker, because of inertia in the system, if we stopped emitting all greenhouse gases right now, the earth will continue to warm for decades and there is no upper limit to the temperatures we could reach.
I constantly grapple with climate grief. At this point, while there will be some technology aids there is no magic bullet because we cannot stop some of the processes we have begun, particularly the melting of glaciers, polar ice caps and permafrost as well as massive damage to oceans. At one of the big, international climate meetings, I asked the scientists in the new Cryosphere (ice) pavillion, if it would be possible one day to hear a public service announcement to evacuate all coastlines because a huge Antarctic ice sheet had melted quickly. They looked at each other, then at me and said, "Yes." (not likely but possible)
The dilemma: Few people, including policy makers, truly understand the dangers ahead. On lobbying teams, I now take the role of communicating urgency to politicians. However, I think about quantum physics in terms of the potential of creating our futures and realities through our imaginations. Picturing a dystopian planet seems counterproductive.. but.. it is hard not to do.
What we need to do:
The single most important task is to communicate the need for action for climate change mitigation at every level of government. We need federal action for maximum effectiveness.
Economists strongly recommend a federal price on carbon, preferably, a fee and dividend or carbon tax that protects lower income citizens. Let your representatives know that you support a price on carbon.
Many emissions are controlled at the local level. Promote tighter building codes, public transportation, energy efficiency, renewable energy, green urban areas, etc.
As a corollary, protect voting rights and fair elections.
I found Jeanne on the internet because of her climate changes posts. Her visions of the future are in step with the science; I hope we can create a better future.
Welcome to the forum @raincloud.
What an incredible first post. I am so happy you found Jeanne's site and decided to post.
Our community is very concerned about the environment and climate change and as you have discovered Jeanne has tried t raise the alarm for some time as well. Your background and insight will be very helpful to our forum, those who contribute and those who lurk from afar.
I love the question you asked the Cryosphere pavillion scientists.
Is the "Price on Carbon" the same thing as a "carbon tax" or are there differences? Is there a good link that describes this in simple terms, showing the positive impact it is hoped to have so we can speak of it from a place of knowledge?
PS- Rainclouds bring forth rainbows so your name is a foreshadowing of hope. I believe there is a way to change your user name but am unsure how to do so.
@raincloud Thank you for posting and welcome, a very hearty welcome.
So I'm glad you joined us and can remind us what you know. I have two grown offspring who both want children of their own and anyone with young children also has that burden to carry. I don't want to leave this world without protecting them. I fantasize about having many acres of rich farmland in Vermont on Lake Champlain or some other water source. And enough money to afford greenhouses and solar to fuel it or some windmills. I also want to build a large basement quarters stocked with water and food. And a way, probably by boat, to escape to the Southern Hemisphere during summers.
In the meantime, I just keep educating people that human caused global warming is real and we have to stop burning fossil fuel. That's it for now. I've seen visions of aerosols being sprayed into the atmosphere in the early 2030's. I am concerned about that and how it will affect the weather. But I also think they may need to do it unless they can do the many other important projects, e.g., -- carbon tax, planting trees, ban fossil fuel use.
@lovendures Thank you for your warm response.
First, the idea of a price on carbon, is to include the cost of pollution damages in the price of products that create the damage, gasoline, for example.
A carbon tax is one of two versions of a price on carbon. The other is "cap and trade," where companies or entities that emit carbon dioxide agree to cap their emissions at a certain level, but can trade permits or emission allowances so that those who can reduce their emissions more easily, can do so at a lower cost. There are advantages and disadvantages to both approaches. I agree with those who recommend a hybrid approach that would include an economy wide tax on carbon emissions (higher prices for fossil fuel energy) but a cap and trade among a limited number industries and utilities that are so fossil fuel intensive that they struggle to find equivalent, alternative sources of energy.
Most economists believe that a carbon tax is more efficient. A bipartisan group including former secretaries of state both Rep and Dem, strongly advocate for one. Washington Post op ed by Paulson and Bowles -(Paulson was Sec. of Treasury under George W. Bush and former chief ex of Goldman Sachs)
Although cap and trade schemes can work, they are harder to implement and easier to game; we need speed and simplicity now, which favors a carbon tax. I like the general proposal by the Citizen's Climate Lobby which is a "fee and dividend" (avoiding the "tax" prejudice) arrangement so that lower income and even most middle income folks receive a dividend to compensate them for higher prices. They have a simple, clear explanation on their website: https://citizensclimatelobby.org/price-on-carbon/
For academic, objective and thorough discussions: https://www.wri.org/research/putting-price-carbon
The links have been added to @raincloud's post for anyone who wants more information about the carbon tax, the cap and trade proposals, and for more detailed research discussions.
@jeanne-mayell and others, at the moment we have nice weather, no heat whatsoever. It is the first cooler summer since years.
I work at a socialfarm where we grow plants organically. The land is like a spunge!
I like the way you describe the energy both growing, expanding. At the same time we have a globally diverse crisis there are diverse solutions being born.
Our brains can't comprihend the complexity of it all. Our senses can do.
I am concerned, yes, and yet feel myself growing stronger and getting clearer on my life's purposes.
The Earth, the Spirits, are calling upon us. Our ancestors are ringing in our ears. You might hear ancient hyms.
I see a fire and around the fire pit they are humming - in trance, there is no time-boundary. They know I can hear them.
We are being assisted big time. Hold on!
Aho
Tjomme