[Closed] Atlantic Hurricane Season

I plan to throw some cards on this season this weekend, but Odette stood out to me right away. It's always interesting to me to see how things pan out. 

@avon

I love predicting the bigger storms.  I did not do to well last year but it is fun.

@lovendures ditto, I like that we can actually see the outcome, even if it's wrong. 

Looks like Ana got named, but appears it'll stay out at sea. 

As a lot of you probably know, this is the 7th year in a row that a named storm has formed before the official start of Atlantic hurricane season. A Washington Post article said that this is the first time since 1950 that a pre-season storm formed northeast of Bermuda. Surprisingly, Ana is still at large. On the other side of the continent, the eastern Pacific had its earliest named storm on record this month. 

One of the early seasonal forecasts this spring from Accuweather predicted that the Azores High would be weaker this year. The reason why Louisiana kept getting hit by storms in 2020 was because the Azores high pressure zone was notably strong, so tropical systems kept getting shunted west. But this year, with a weaker high, Florida is looking more at risk. I don't know if that forecast still holds.

Ok I thought I'd throw my hat into the ring, with the caveat that I did not do the inner visioning I usually do when making focused predictions. This was more of a quick draw just to see what I immediately gathered.

That said, here's what I got:

Storms that look like they will be major and/or will cause major damage:

• Bill (this one might be trouble and/or unpredictable)
• Henri
• Ida
• Larry
• Mindy (trouble all around)
• Odette (looks very powerful and strong)
• Peter (this one especially seems to signify to me “a storm for the ages”)
• Teresa (might be financially damaging)
• Wanda (high potential for flooding here)

Uncertain storms:

• Elsa (this one seems like the track of this storm will be uncertain)
• Fred (fast but powerful)

Storms that appear will be minor/nothing to worry about:

• Ana
• Claudette
• Danny
• Grace
• Julian
• Kate
• Nicholas
• Rose (looks to be fast)
• Sam
• Victor

@sistermoon    It will be fun to see how your predictions pan out.   

On the general topic, I am hoping for a little pop-up tropical depression to come cool off the Southeast this week.  We're gonna need it. 

Posted by: @avon

I plan to throw some cards on this season this weekend, but Odette stood out to me right away. It's always interesting to me to see how things pan out. 

Odette stood out to me too! Definitely a name to keep in mind.

@sistermoon

That's a long list of storms that might cause major damage. Maybe the storms on that initial list will simply make landfall without necessarily causing lots of damage. Bill comes first, so we'll find out soon..

I keep thinking about the historic Great Hurricane of 1780, which tore through the Lesser Antilles. Even though the region was more sparsely populated than it is now, the 1780 Hurricane still stands as the deadliest Atlantic Hurricane on record. Based on the damage it caused, some modern day meteorologists estimate that its winds were in excess of 200 miles per hour. And this was all before anthropogenic global warming. So it's almost inevitable that we'll see something on that scale again sooner rather than later. 2015's Hurricane Patricia in the Eastern Pacific already sent a warning. 

@coyote

You're right -- I just went back and looked at my notes and see that Henri, Ida, and Larry are really on the cusp of uncertain/unpredictable. But yes, it does appear like quite a few will be major - although only Odette and Peter stood out as the real big baddies, if that makes sense. (Mindy also.)

It was hard for me to distinguish between a storm making landfall and having a substantial impact on residents (which might be considered 'minor' to meteorologists and weather watchers but perhaps not so minor to those weathering the storm) vs. being a MAJOR major storm by anyone's account. So I just lumped them all into 'major' without much nuance.

As for minor -- I saw those as either going out to sea or being a Cat 1/tropical storm with minimal impact for all involved.

I now realize how much leeway there is in terms of what constituted a 'big' storm in my eyes - sorry, I should have done a better job of clarifying that when I first posted :)

I do think it's interesting that so many have seen a focus on Odette already, though.

Thank you for prompting me to look at this again and clarify!

I'm going to put this out there -- keep in mind I am not a great predictor of the future:

I was looking at the National Hurricane Center map this morning.  (I always do that during hurricane season, because the storms fascinate me.)   I had a "flash" that Claudette-to-be (still just a disturbance west of the Yucatan) will have some "juice".   Not that it will  necessarily be a major storm, but it that it will make an impact on the US Gulf Coast. 

Say hello to Elsa, the first Atlantic Hurricane of the season. She is currently passing near St. Vincent and St. Lucia. Winds are at about 75mph.

This morning something came to me regarding Hurricane season which is odd.  Something about a shoe or a foot.  I wondered if there was a town or island that had a shoe name or looked like a shoe and then I found Hilton Head which looks like a shoe.  So, if there happens to be a storm headed to Hilton Head or another "shoe" place, please take note and consider a storm approaching that area as dangerous. 

@lovendures   Elsa's predicted to come visiting my town tomorrow morning.  Should be interesting. (Hurricanes are cool as long as your house stays in one piece.)

In June, a small group of us meditated on the future, including a special hurricane meditation.  I am posting the hurricane predictions here by name and if you want to see all the other predictions we made, please donate $15 or more :-) It's a much needed fund raiser for the forum. Many thanks to @deetoo and @gradualgoddess for donating a lot of their time putting the predictions together. 

@lovendures @baba @bluebelle @lizzie @thehappymedium

Hurricanes for 2021 Hurricane Season

• Henri stands out to me. (Baba)
• I see a monster hurricane moving across southern Florida. It goes across the tip from Fort Lauderdale to the Keys and covers both coasts. Very high winds doing major damage. Buildings looked like bits of paper confetti tossed in the air. Unsure of the name, maybe Odette. (Jeanne Mayell)
• Odette is tearing through, cutting a path of devastation. (Jeanne Mayell)
• Odette will be large and troublesome. (Baba)
• Odette is huge. Gulf coast, Texas. Massive damage. (Deetoo)
• I see back-to-back hurricanes that cover Florida from one coast to another. (Bluebelle)
• Odette is big and either lasts a long time or hits a large area. I sense Florida. (Lovendures)
• There are 3 named storms in the water around the time of Odette. I see a hurricane map with them there. (Lovendures)
• I sense back-to-back-to-back storms, perhaps in similar places. Definitely visible on the map. (Lovendures)
• Irma or Ida, much flooding. Bad, possibly in Texas. People still wearing masks during this hurricane. (Jeanne Mayell)
• Kate may land in the Gulf toward New Orleans. (Baba)
• Victor moves toward the Azores. (Baba)
• Hurricane Peter jumps out at me, as well as Odette and Rose. That whole block of names resonates with me. (Bluebelle)
• Hurricane Peter—I see red—it’s a massive hurricane. Odette plus Peter deliver a one-two punch. (Bluebelle)
• I see three hurricanes, Julian, Odette, and Rose, especially Odette. The strongest one seems to go across Florida late in the season and re-energizes again in the Gulf of Mexico. It seems to be one, two, or three hurricanes in one. (Lizzie)
• The ones that stand out to me are Elsa, Henri (I get the East Coast), Odette*, Sam, Victor and/or Wanda. Odette is a big one (on the Gulf Coast/Texas), Elsa less so but still notable. (GradualGoddess)
• Fred is angry, unpredictable. Not seeing major damage. (Deetoo)
• Ida is bad, flooding. (Deetoo)
• I see lots of hurricane flooding, families displaced. Texas, Carolinas? (Deetoo)
• Hurricane flooding and storms that sweep across Florida, Texas, and the New England Coast, as well as Bermuda. (Andrew Posey)
• Houston floods again—and I want to say Galveston. (Andrew Posey)
• Grace has some depth for a while. (Lovendures)
• Pay attention to Henri! It intensifies and stays high for a while. I think there will be a photo taken of the words “Oh Henri” on some plywood used to board up a building. (Lovendures)
• Ida pops in for a bit and then is finished. It is making the water a little choppy. I see a red arrow on the left side of Florida. (Lovendures)
• Julian—Islands targeted. (Lovendures)
• Kate is off the Atlantic at sea. (Lovendures)
• Larry might be in the Caribbean. (Lovendures)
• People are alert and awaiting Mindy’s arrival, wondering where she might land. She might be off the East Coast. (Lovendures)
• Nicholas has a presence. At some point I see an eye forming. (Lovendures)
• Peter heads west and turns north. On the heels of Odette but smaller. (Lovendures)
• People are watching Rose to see what she will do and where she will head. Newscasters are talking about Rose.(Lovendures)
• Sam makes the sea very choppy. I think “Sam I am.” Might be present with Rose. (Lovendures)
• Theresa is short-lived behind Sam. (Lovendures)

@ana Stay safe @ana.

Elsa came through north FL this morning and she was pretty mild.  Nothing in my inland region but a lot of rain and some moderately gusty winds.  The winds were more intense on the coast but there have been no reports of widespread damage.   Inland, many trees came down (as is usual)-- some knocked out power lines and a few fell on houses.  But the utilities companies have been able to keep up with the outages pretty well,  and I have not heard of anyone being injured at this time.   

Update- since I posted an hour ago I did hear of a person killed in Jacksonville by a tree falling on their car. ?      

@sistermoon 

It makes sense that Elsa was an uncertain storm for you. Even though it never exceeded category 1 status, it left a trail of minor damage through much of the Caribbean, the entire US east coast, and even Atlantic Canada. Our town in Connecticut received 7.2 inches of rain from Elsa in 24 hours. Sump pumps in people's basements failed because of the sheer volume of water (which fell on already-saturated ground). There was also major flooding in the New York City subway system: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/watch-nyc-subway-station-floods-as-sudden-heavy-downpours-wreak-havoc-on-tri-state-roads/3146172/

Say Hello to T.S. Fred, heading to Florida.

In the Pacific, Kevin and Linda are almost on top of each other, off the Western coast of Mexico.  Kevin is weakening and Linda is getting stronger.