When I was commenting, on my own post, about the Sanders-Warren Presidential run, I said, in reply that there would be a shift to "A somewhat disunited states eventually". That sort of popped out, on autoscript, when I was writing up the response to your last comments. This happens sometimes, and I always do a check on these "Autoscripts" later. So:
Early days, but somewhat interesting. The phrase " Somewhat disunited states" is fairly accurate. Centrifugal political, economic and social forces are going to do this. Some of it has actually already happened. On the surface, the USA is culturally and socially united as never before, due to the Web, modern comms, travel, etc. BUT: Kinda things are stirring, at a deep level. The main polarisation is already going on. it is between "Hate states" and what might be called "Lberal-progressive" states. It is a gathering storm. It will get much worse. People will leave, (as they are now doing already) and move to a state "Where they feel more comfortable". This shift of populations is going on, and accelerating . its partly driven by the culture wars, politics, etc, and economic.
But the result, 20 years down the track, is very large regional blocks, and social and political forces, that are increasing the already existing "Regions" of the USA even more. Significantly, the South, (old south) is going to resurge. It will also, (with some exceptions) become a sort of "Hate-States Block". Not good. There will also be a lot of discussion, in the next decade, amongst Black political radicals, of a Black separatist state or social division. (Mostly discussion, but events might give it some drive, in the future). Other social forces, within the regional blocks, will also become powerful. I am speaking, here, of the US Black population. There will be an increasing sense of dis empowerment, social segregation, and isolation, and this will be class and economically based. But the black professional claand socially sses will be unhappy, about ths situation. So, increasing isolation and frustration of the American black underclass.
This will also be mirrored by a significant increase in poor whites, who will become radicalised by the situation. The radicalisation will be split, between Left and Right, but mostly Right.
Likewise, a growing sense of frustration and disempowerment, amongst middle class whites, who will get increasingly angry at how things are going, for both them, and the country. Mostly, they will move into left/right blocks.
If you stand back, and look at all this closely, all the ingredients are there for a "Pre-Rwevolutionary situation". I think that the 2024 and 2028 elections are going to be absolutely key, in America. They decide the future, for the next 50 years afterwards. That serious.
What I get, is that by 2030, there is a sort of "Radical restructuring" of America going on, at all levels. Its a straight left/right struggle, but racially and socially polarised.
I do absolutely see a reformist American government, in the late twenties, (possibly earlier) but it has huge internal enemies. It is under siege. Its a replay of the radical sixties, but much much more violent.
Add to the mix the huge "Climate tsunami" now heading our way, globally, in the next 15 years, (Yes, that close) and the future is going to be damn interesting, for those fated to live in it.
I am posting this, but holding certain elements back, as I want to see if they are picked up on here by the "Inmates" lol. Discuss, crew! Addendum: This is posted as the start of a long term thread., THE FATE OF AMERICA. I think this will be a very important thread for the site. Please try to look, in comments, on things I have missed, or not said yet, and also your own deep feelings and scanning on the issues.
It's funny you mentioned people moving to states they feel more comfortable...My family & I are in the process of doing just this. Currently we live in PA - Philly suburb. Our state has become purple & even things as simple as a $100 per household to restore & expand crumbling school infrastructure & expand schools due to population growth has become contentious. Racial slurs spray painted on local walls - stealing of opponents school signs- just a level of in- civility & unleashing of bitterness that is distressing - not to mention PA was critical in voting in DT ( even though my county was blue). After the second time in 8 years our family has had to deal with job insecurity we are leaving. In some ways this makes me sad since we have family here, it's a beautiful part of the country, and we have many friends here. But, I feel we are being pushed out by the universe. So, we are making plans to move to New York - between a cheaper house that offers more options for me (us) to expand my business, good schools, active arts community, & the Excelsior Scholarship- where if all hell breaks loose - at least I am fairly certain I can send my kids to college. It makes sense. Yes taxes are higher- but with the ability to expand the business & college opportunities for my kids it's far more affordable then to try to slog it out where I am. I'm thinking some people will start to realize that pooling money together via taxes - responsibly to fund communal benefits- like healthcare, schools, college affordability makes more sense then needing your extra $100 to put in your pocket & make sure no one else gets to benefit from it. I'd rather be with people of a like mindset where I can try to contribute some good in the world- thinking there is strength in numbers. I get exhausted trying to explain that $100 in taxes to deal with needed repairs to the school will save you thousands by increasing your property value or why guns in schools is a bad idea. So off we go, as soon as possible....I just hope there is a possibility where the US comes back to sanity & we can heal from this mess. Somehow maybe, we all figure this out before the situation becomes more dire than it already is.
New York is a good choice, Shawn. But the last time I checked, the biggest political divide in this country is not among states. It's between rural and urban. Upstate NY has always been more right wing compared to NYC. So be sure to check the locality where you are moving before you go.
Jeanne, We are hoping to move to the Ithaca area.
I don't know why I feel so strongly about this, but I do. I have never felt that the United States should have been one country, it really boils down to how we define a nation state. In my country Canada there are sharp cultural and linguistic divisions which might tear us apart one day, but right now are amicable. In the United States I think the situation is worse, while language is not a divider, folkways, culture and way of life are. I do not want to live anywhere near Trump voters, and this is something I will be thinking about when it comes time to move more permanently. The values of Blue and red America are irreconcilable, they just are. I've long thought the reason the United States has never been viewed as quite as civilized as many other countries is because of the south and the racial tensions and greed that permeates much of the culture. It is clear now that this is not going away, even though an enormous number of Americans want nothing to do with it. Communities that take better care of their people do better, you all lift each other up, and I think that's the future. I don't understand where the hate on display today comes from, I'm currently reading the book white working class by Joanne Williams, where she tries to make us all understand the folkways of these people. But no amount of understanding is ever going to explain the hate.
hi Natalie, and Shawn, thanks for the feedback. I was somewhat apprehensive when I posted this, but felt I had to try and deal with the raw truth I was getting in a sensible way. i did say, by the way, incase you missed it: "I do absolutely see a reformist American government, in the late twenties, (possibly earlier)" so thats something. also as will be clearer in the next post on this subject, the "Dark State forces" are not, ultimately, going to win. but it is not going to be an easy ride. By the way, here in Europe, we are going through the same stuff. BREXIT is playing hell with the UK.
but please keep the comments coming. I think a seperate, cold, calm analysis of what is going on, what willl go on, and what has not yet started going on, is vital. Thanks for posting.
Thank you for reiterating that there is hope - although the waters are pretty rough here ( US) in UK, Europe, and many places around the globe. I have been sending love & praying every day for current leaders, people here & abroad, and our environment. I do have faith that good will win out, hoping sooner rather than later. In meantime, hold onto our hats ?
No worries in Ithaca. It's a progressive university town. Although I don't know what it's like in the burbs of Ithaca. Here's what Wikipedia said of Ithaca: Politically, the majority of city's voters (many of them students) have supported liberalism and the democratic party. A November 2004 study by Podunk ists it as New York's most liberal city.This contrasts with the more conservative leanings of the generally rural Upstate New York region; the city's voters are also more liberal than those in the rest of Thomkins County.
Shawn - I grew up in NYC, and spent a lot of time upstate, as did my husband. Ithaca is a good choice, being a college town it's more liberal. It's similar to Burlington in VT. It's really pretty there, too. Just be aware that upstate NY is where I have met some of the most racist people I have ever encountered. It's also where the Mormons founded their religion. There's also a lot of tension in NYS between Orthodox Jewish Communities and surrounding communities, lots of issues of church-state separation. You're probably aware of much of this, but I'm just pointing out a few items for those who don't know the area. Best part of upstate NYS is that you can cross into Canada very easily if the need ever arises.
Hi Zoron, and thanks for the post. Very interesting. As I commented in the Sanders-Warren post, it creates very mixed feelings, both of wanting to protect the union and questioning how much of a union we really have. I guess it goes without saying that if the US does divide up in such a way, we will no longer be a "superpower," but then that kind of begs the question of whether any country should be a superpower. In your scanning, have you picked up anything with regard to whether superpowers will still exist (Russia, China, etc), whether anyone will actively try to take over any sections of a divided US? And when one section (section or separate countries or still states?) has an emergency, will concepts like federal aid no longer exist? What about government? I have so many questions! : )
I will be happy to remain in California as far as its ideology, but hope it won't undergo too much trauma from attack or earthquake (let us know if you're seeing anything!). Also currently find myself being priced out of housing, even the rental market. Should have kept my house here when I had one. I grew up in southern California and find my housing options getting worse and worse as I get older. Crazy expensive here.
Thank you Laura and Jeanne ?
I think Jeanne has it right - "the biggest political divide in this country is not among states. It's between rural and urban." A lot of it, I think, has to do with ignorance, fear, and lack of experience. If you live in an urban area, you see people of different cultures/religions/backgrounds and it's normal. If you live in a more rural area, there's a good chance you know most of your neighbors, everyone is from a similar background/culture and outsiders are scary to them. A lot of this is about fear and ignorance- gullible people that will believe anything because they have not experienced anything else.
Also I want to say to Natalie, the Trump supporter is everywhere. The east side of the country is full of hate groups, there's quite a few in California, they are sparse in states like Nevada and Utah but that doesn't mean that there aren't racist people or a Trump mentality. There are also red states that have blue cities, like Phoenix, our mayor is Democrat even though the state is red...going purple though. Most of my friends here are Republican and I know lots of Mormons and I don't hate them because they don't spew hate. Actually the Mormons are some of the nicest people I have ever met or known. My point is, it's not as easy as saying this area or that area because even though you might live in a mostly blue area, it doesn't mean that you don't live next door to a hateful person, not matter their political leanings. At the end of the day, we can agree to disagree and we are more than our political parties - at least I hope people see themselves that way. Believe it or not I've had several civil and calm conversations with Trump supporters about Trump and we have agreed on some things and disagreed on others but it didn't get heated and no one was being hateful. Personally, I am tired of the hate - which I mostly see online because people are much bolder behind a keyboard - and for me it starts with me. If I want to see less hate in my life then I need to stop hating and do more loving.
The "disunion" is coming, I think it's inevitable but maybe it has more to do with climate and necessity than politics necessarily. If Washington gets severely dysfunctional as predicted then cities and states will have to unite and do things on their own and that's where I think it's going. We already saw some of that when cities signed up to participate in the Paris accord since Trump won't. Just my feeling...and it might be a good thing.
At the risk of sounding like a nerd I feel the need to say the following. What exactly is a nation state and how do we define it? Is it defined by ethnic identity, shared values and purpose or some other denominator. I think history needs to be studied to understand the tensions of today. Here's my understanding of the United States. It is a multi ethnic country that makes much of the idea of the melting pot, however from the beginning there were different ideas regarding governance, rights etc... in different regions. In a way different folkways have shaped different areas and right now those folkways are at war. Is this something that can be fixed, can the country unite again. I'm not sure it can or should. In order to unite every side has to be a bit more humble and willing to listen to their opponents. Hell hasn't frozen over yet, so we can assume that's not going to happen. So then the alternative really is division. In regards to being a superpower, I think Americans will be relieved once that burden is taken from them. What good does being a superpower do for the average citizen? There can be great pride in creating a society fit for everyone to thrive in, egotism creates empire. Letting go of empire can make it easier create a better domestic life.
I've read quite a lot over the years on this subject - a few books I'd recommend to any poli sci and history nerds like myself are:
Albion's Seed - by David Hackett Fischer
Blood and Belonging - by Michael Ignatieff
American Character - by Colin Woodard
Another excellent Colin Woodard book is American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America.
Period between 2027-2029 surely looks like to be a start point of a new socio-political cycle for USA. Although the restructuring will take more time than that. Like the transitional changes effecting middle east, indian subcontinent, china, europe the crisis impacting america will last a full generation.
As zoron said the forces are already are at play. Anti-establishment feeling will be high in the coming decade, the people who elected donald trump thinking him as a anti-establishment figure will be left feeling quite disappointed at the end of his term. And those disappointments and angers from unfulfilled promises will take shapes of various movements. Both from the people who voted him and who voted hillary clinton. The administration no matter who will be at power at that time will take repressive measures and all of that comes head after 2026. President's power by that time looks quite curtailed. Like UK, this social instability will heavily damage america's power projection ability. America will retain no.1 nation in technologicaly and military in 2020's but it will become stagnant and in 30's lose the edge to others.
In short we can say twenties are the america's decade of fall from superpower status. The frenzy in america will subside in thirties compared to the last deacde and then americans will be able to look outward and come to terms with their position in the world order.
Zoron is very impressed by the response to this new thread, about America. The standard of debate and comment is excellent. If you were a college class, I would love to teach you!. But to clarify, in no particular order, what I am seeing:
Firstly, internal separation is already happening, as has been said in the comments. This continues, but there are forces of commonality, and shared culture, that transcend this. The common media, social, and economic culture is still there. So the two forces oppose each other. I have a long article that I never completed, (Academic type) which was entitled: "The American Techno-Barbaric State & its discontents." Title says it all. My view of this was that "Techno-Barbarism" (Copyright, proprietor is Zoron) is not limited to the USA. it also infected Russia, much of Europe, (Main cause of the first world war, and the second one) and China is now carrying the Virus, but is restrained by its deep classical traditions. Western Techno-Barbarism has infected the whole planet. The planet is being devastated by this "Disease of civilisation" as I call it. It is the main driving force of Climate disaster, and the destruction of the Eco-Sphere. As a race, we are committing mass suicide, and the "Kool-Aide" is our Techno-Barbaric global culture. America is well on its way to becoming AMERIKA, and the process goes way beyond politics. The real drivers of this are deeper, and are not easily turned around, or changed. It is going to be Hell. America is merely the most visible, loud, and aggressive example of what is going on. But the political system, which sits atop all this, is itself infected. The Military industrial complex is endemic, in all large states. The massive changes going on, socially and culturally, are driven by this process. So all my ideas on "The Fate of America" have to be seen in the context of these comments i am posting. Which brings me to where we are, here, online, and what this Group is now, almost instinctively, moving towards, and is what it is for. We have been very fortunate on who has joined, those who post the core of things, and we are sort of evolving into a "Faculty". The standards of critical comment are excellent. But, we have something others do not. we are "Majority Report". We see, we hear, we think, and are not limited by time, or distance. We are unique. The thing is, we are NOT a sort of "The usual, Hollywood, glitter and gossip type forum". We are serious. Some of our readers are very serious, and of like mind. We are becoming a resource. We are also a new type of Web phenomenon, using the WEB, and intellect, to do what the sixties new age'rs could only dream about. Well, it has arrived. The general culture has also changed. people are also much more open to new ideas, and Psychic stuff. the more fanatical extremist Christian elements, are losing credibility. But society is polarising.
So what is our role, as we evolve, on this site, and what are our goals?. Well, for a start, to do what used to be an actual job, in the past, when all kings had soothsayers, seers, and the like, at their side. Their job was to act as advisers, to see, to hear, to warn, to alert. So we are in a long tradition. We might do some good. But I think we are sitting on a treasure chest of predictions, visions, etc. it is, interestingly, beginning to structure itself, into a sort of resource. This has all happened, in a very naturalistic way, not really planned, but we are on the right track. so i am sort of raising these issues, for thought. In the meantime, we are "Time Navigators", predicting the rocks and storms, ahead, for us all, and urging warnings, of things to come. Fascinating!.
What Zoron is describing as a pre-revolutionary disunion provides a new context for understanding what I have felt across my life in Missouri as another civil war. Like others have mentioned, there already are distinct divides between rural and urban in Missouri. I have already moved within the state based on economic, familial, and social considerations. I chose to commute an hour and a half every day based on access to educational opportunity and familial supports but also because my child and I could not thrive in a toxic environment governed by the physical brutality of angry white men. They are well characterized in their pre-Civil War depiction in Celia, A Slave, which isn’t much different from what we see in the characters of Todd Akin of “legitimate rape” fame, the toadish personality of Roy Blunt, and the thugs who appear in Winter’s Bone. In rural Missouri divorce is an economic death sentence for women, meth corrupts the landscape, racism abounds, and many churches constrict the ability of people to respect women and to understand and make sense of diverse others and impress the absolute authority of men in a hierarchical construction of white family and society. I can see economic scarcity as a driver of racism here, but there is something more elemental and Neanderthal to it all … the brute physical force of entitled, white, male domination. I just can’t get passed thinking that this is the essential engine of division across the country.
Grace, You express this so well! Zoron!
Zoron has been slightly surprised, as just two days after he posted on here, re "The fate of America", the respected sunday paper the Observer, in london, published a major article that has amazing resonances with what I have been saying. So we are sort of going mainstream, but ahead of the pack.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/28/donald-trump-republicans-flake-corker-bannon