The result of the Mexican elections has been a surprise: the establishment PRI lost. I predicted this in a post that's been lost, in January, where I made a list of the Financial Times forecasts for 2018 that I felt were off.
Since that post was lost, I'll write here for the record the other political prediction where I parted ways with the Financial Times staff:Â Theresa May will not remain prime minister of the UK till the end of 2018. I'm less sure of this one now, but I still feel it's more likely than not.
Maria, UK prime Minister and Mexico. Comments and predictions.
First of all, rejoice. Democracy has triumphed. The key thing now is for the new leader to get into office, and a transition of power. I am pleased for the Mexicans, as this is the first step, on a long road. Now the Narco war starts. They will eventually lose. Re the Uk prime minister, I think this is likely. The extreme right in the Cabinet are plotting to get rid of her. They will then suffer a political disaster, if this happens, and the Conservative party will suffer a de-facto split. It will stagger on, in office, but powerless to enact the vital legislation required by BREXIT. That leads to real political crisis and disaster next year. A BREXIT that is more like a EJEXIT. There is some possibility that Corbyn the Labour leader will at some point, take over, without an election, but it will be hopeless. He is also in favour of the terms BREXIT, but is delusional about getting any kind of EU deal. Even if he gets into power, the outcome over BREXIT will still be disasterous. But it is all very much in Flux at the moment. No clarity for several weeks. Autumn is going to be a hard time.
Zoron: Ouch! I'm a little worried for the UK under those circumstances given global wierding and how strange winters have gotten over there. Have read stories in The Guardian of 120k pensioners freezing to death over the last 4 years. That can't be improved by an Ejexit. R1
May is now getting a leadership challenge from Boris Johnson, and it's looking like it can succeed. The prediction that May won't last till the end of 2018 is looking likely now.
I don't see Corbyn taking over without an election, that is arithmetically impossible given the current configuration of seats in Parliament. And I don't see snap elections being called anytime soon, either. The Tories got rather burnt in the last snap elections, they're not calling the next one till the full five years have passed.
About "pensioners freezing to death", that isn't literally about freezing to death, that's about people getting pneumonia and similar diseases because it's too cold in their homes. Still a bad thing, of course. Related, more than anything else, to the housing stock being of rather poor quality in most of the UK, and gas bills going up. None of those things have much to do with Brexit. Food prices will go up, though, so it will throw more people into the group that are forced to choose between paying their gas bills and paying for food. Not a pretty picture.
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