It seems like every time I read the mainline news, I see another poll on Biden losing ground to Trump. I don't understand the science of polling except that my understanding is that it depends how the questions are posed and what group is being polled and when. I don't quite know whether to be deeply concerned or ignore them. Anyone have a more informed perspective?Â
We are still 11 months away from the election. There is no way that any poll is going to accurately reflect or predict anything at this point. Any poll that has TFG up by more than two points in a known non-R area should be taken to be biased by either the views of the person/group conducting the poll or by who's paying for the poll and the results they want. In addition, the mainstream media needs a scary story, a horserace, to sell ads and clicks, so they will promote the most outlandish BS polls in order to scare the bejezus out of you and get you to engage. Remember, according to the polls, Obama was not going to win a second term, Hillary was going to win in a landslide, and there was going to be a huge red wave in 2022.
My advice? Ignore them generally, especially the ones that have TFG winning or doing too well, but at the same time vote as if they're true. Does that make sense?
@kathleen I even wonder HOW they poll people. Â The only time I get asked to do a poll is on my landline. Â I rarely even use my landline and I don't know anyone under 35 who actually has a landline. Â My kids who are in their 20's refuse to answer any question on their cell phone whether via text or phone call. They don't know anyone who answers any either. So where are the pollsters getting their data.
A few years ago I agreed to do a poll and I kept having to tell the person " I can't answer your question with any of the choices you have offered". Â haha
@tgraf66 Yes, makes sense, particularly in regard to the never-ending mainstream hype. I read rather than watch the news, but it's still intense. I appreciate your take!
@lovendures True enough, I never respond to phone or email polls, and I block all political texts regardless of party. I often wonder whether these polls are skewed based on those responders that will answer ANY call. If so, there may be more nuance in these polls than I anticipated, lol!
I think a lot of the polls reflect lack of enthusiasm by democrats, who will ultimately come home to the party and vote for Biden. I also think the abortion issue is going to get more and more people enraged over the next year, and inflation will subside.Â
Google this search term: "democratic overperformance in recent elections." Dems either keep winning or overperforming in current elections. I think that's a better way to gauge how things are going.
@kathleen It's frustrating and frightening! Especially when it's a no-brainer kind of election, but so was 2016 and we all know how that turned out. I'm keeping my head down and trying to focus on light but I admit the darkness is very, very dark and daunting.
@kathleen when I get really scared or uncomfortable, I go read The Palmer Report. It usually puts everything back into perspective and I can breathe! LOL!
The Republicans will be forced by their base to run on a national abortion ban next year. And the Supreme Court has said that it will take up the case of the abortion pill in their next term. So abortion will be front and center in 2024, and I believe that it will be the deciding factor in the presidency and most Congressional elections.
@gbs 100% agree, along with the MSM *finally* calling TFG's rhetoric for what it is - blatant fascistic authoritarianism. I also expect the D campaigns up and down the ballot to be much more aggressive in calling out the R incumbents for being the opportunists and cowards that they are, particularly with respect to claiming credit for beneficial programs such as the infrastructure law that they voted against as well as siding with Putin's objectives.
@lynn For sure I'll explore the search term you suggested, as I really want to see more positive news. I hear the malaise among democrats and independents and am frankly stunned about all the whining. I remind myself that when people are asked for their opinion they often indulge in heated trash talking rather than measured, thoughtful responses that reflect the reality and urgency of voting for the candidate who can win. I believe that social media has encouraged this general negativity.
@impassionate Definitely will check out the Palmer Report and thanks for the suggestion!
@kathleen I think all the downer stuff is meant to depress liberals and make them think the other side is stronger than it is. When you read articles or polls that don't ring true for you, it could be propaganda. Social media is full of it. It's a tactic of authoritarians -- make the other side think you're winning. If the progressive agenda was so weak, dems would not be overperfomlng, even in rural areas. I'll search for more links. I read something last week about a state-wide race in Oklahoma (I think) where the republican won, but only by 10 points. That's a large spread until you realize that 45 won that district by over 30 points. That doesn't happen when dems are weak.
@gbs It does occur to me that election years have a way of sharpening the issues for people rather than remaining stuck in a morass of discontent. When (and if) that happens, voters start coalescing around the issues in front of them rather than just griping about whether Biden is too old. The urgency in the next year may shape its direction and outcome.
@lynn Yes, would love to hear about and search for positive outcomes in democratic races. Especially what's happening in these rural republican races will hopefully be reflective of the larger voting trajectory in 2024.
Here are a few links. I can't find the one for the Oklahoma race but I'll keep looking.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-winning-big-special-elections/story?id=103315703
Granted, these are special elections and don't directly refer to any questions about polling between Biden and 45. However, the idea is that if dems are doing so well in these special elections, it stands to reason this could positively affect the presidential election. I believe this is possible.
@kathleen Also remember that most if not all of the US MSM and major social media outlets are heavily influenced, controlled, or outright owned by wealthy right-wing people and organizations whose ability to continue to fleece the people and do as they please depends on electing people that they also control or own. Actually serving the people is not on their agenda, and they don't want it to be part of the national dialogue, either. Check out the most recent graph of media bias in the topic linked below, and you'll have a better idea who you should ignore and who you should listen to.
@lynn Interesting articles, thank you! Especially since these are r- dominated states. I'm on the search for more articles like these next year. It will interesting so see what happens in NY with Santos' seat in early Feb/24. They're suggesting that it could be a bellwether outcome.
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@tgraf66 Yes, thanks for sending the link to Jeanne's recent info on media bias as well as the chart. I had skimmed over her info the first time around, but spent more time with it this time. NYT has some of the best journalists, but they're not above hyping and scare-mongering particularly in their opinion writing. I used to read Politico, but have found them to be among the worst at slanting the news for the sake of readership. Jeanne makes a good point about vetting the authors of certain publications. I used to frequently read the Atlantic, but have found that it really does depend on the writer. Atlantic (like CNN) also has some poorly researched and badly written articles. If I want "just the news" I usually check out AP News, as they seem to deliver most of their articles from other sources rather than write them. I say "seem", but I don't know for certain.
@kathleen Definitely. NY State skewed right last midterms, for a bunch of reasons, and now the GOP seems to have put up an interesting candidate for the seat. The Dems are running Tom Suozzi, who held the seat before vacating it to run again the governor. He's a known quantity. I would hope folks from that district are tired of the unknown!
For whatever it's worth, I'm convinced Biden will be re-elected. I don't even think 45 will make it to next November, but even if he does, I just can't see him winning. If he does, the world will be turned on its head, and I just don't see that happening.