Midterm elections

I have very mixed feelings this morning.  I'm happy that the house flipped, but extremely disappointed that voters in my district re-elected indicted criminal Duncan Hunter, especially after he ran such a racist campaign.    Of course, his trial starts next week, so there is still hope that he'll be gone before long, but it is just disheartening that so many people here would rather have an indicted criminal who has done NOTHING for our district (except steal campaign donations).   Sigh.    

To anyone feeling torn about last night -- last night was an immense victory for the Democrats and its impact cannot be overstated.

When it comes to advancing your side in, say, a war, it's important to realize the victory conditions and the statuses of those conditions. Sometimes what appears to be a loss can really be a win and a win can be a loss. You have major victories, minor victories, stalemates, minor defeats, and major defeats. I think it's important that we break down a few things to put them in perspective:

The main objective for both sides in this election, the target which made all the difference politically and was truly up for grabs, was control of the House. Democrats won that and they won a devastating victory. Republicans will try to downplay this by stating that it's common for the party out of power to win seats in the House during a president's first midterm and that Trump had smaller losses than Obama and Clinton. What is important to realize here is that Republicans have controlled the majority of state governments for quite some time and have gerrymandered Congressional districts in such a way that Republican wins are always going to be amplified and Democratic wins are always going to be diminished. Democrats were never going to win 60 seats like Republicans did in 2010 by sheer virtue of the fact that, for the time being, the game has been rigged to prevent that. In that context, picking up 35 seats is quite the feat.

The reason that taking control of the House is so important is that it gives Democrats the means to act as a check on Trump. They have the power of the subpoena. They can protect and advance the Mueller investigation. They can run their own investigations into every shady deed that Trump and his Republican supporters try to foist on this country. Because Trump is a criminal and he is lazy there will be no shortage of evidence to present to the American people. This will hurt Trump politically but, more importantly, assuming he does not resign it will make him an albatross around the necks of Republicans going into 2020. It was vital to Republican survival to maintain control of the House and they blew it.

On its face, the Senate appears to be a bit of a defeat for Democrats but I'd argue that it's actually a minor victory. A lot of people are upset that Democrats did not gain control of the Senate. Going into this election, however, the odds of that happening were only twelve percent. The fact of the matter is that the Democrats were defending 26 out of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs this time around and a lot of those seats were in states that supported Trump in 2016. The real story is that, in other circumstances, this actually should have been a blowout for Republicans and, if Trump was really as "secretly popular" as they claim him to be, they should have easily seized a veto-proof majority. The fact that Democrats were able to hold their losses down to about 3 or 4 seats is actually a sign that things aren't as rosy on the Republican side as Republicans want to believe. It should be added that Democrats received around 10,000,000 more votes in senate elections than Republicans did. The map in 2020 is a lot more favorable to Democrats than this one was.

A lot of people are heartbroken about Beto losing to Cruz but let's take a moment to examine that situation. O'Rourke went head-to-head in a close race in a red state against a former presidential front-runner that is well supported by the Republican base. Cruz had to pull out every dirty trick in the book and he still only won by a small margin. O'Rourke didn't win but Democrats won quite a few seats in Congress and the Texas House on his coattails. Texas should not have been that competitive in the first place and the fact that it was, again, is a minor victory for Democrats.

Florida is disheartening but I strongly suspect antics at play there and it looks like there are going to be recounts. Georgia was rigged from the outset but was still close. The key story is that Democratic turnout was huge and that solid gains were made despite having the deck stacked against them, especially in the one place that mattered much. Democrats picked up key governorships and seats in state elections which will also play to their advantage in the long run.

Democrats have momentum here. They need to investigate but they also need to put forward solid legislation to prove that they really are a party of ideas -- that legislation might not ultimately go anywhere but played right it should enable them to make a strong case to the American people in 2020. That's where the real battle is to be won.

I have to say, I feel much better today than I have in the past two years.

Re: Kim Davis - she didn't lose to a gay man, just someone else in that agency:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/politics/kim-davis-election-results.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

As for CA battle in general:  Here in CA, we were trying to get rid of the "Crooked 8": Walters, Rohrabacher, Knight, Nunes*, Hunter*, Denham, Valadao, Royce, McCarthy, and also flip Issa's seat.
The good news:
Issa's seat is flipped blue. Rohrabacher appears to be out but may call for recount (<2,000 votes margin).
The bad news:
The rest are still in, by fair margins. This is not just about rural vs urban, it's about racism. There aren't that many "poor farmers" here, it's about wealthy individuals running the show. Oligarchs, if you will.
*Hopeful news: Nunes and Hunter won by large margins (more on Hunter race in another post) BUT they are going to be facing indictments and investigations, so most likely by next year this time we'll be having special elections in those districts.

And Rosieheart - I feel for you, but here's my view:  Why Duncan Hunter won: Well, first of all, how many of you outside that district can name his opponent? Yeah, I thought not, that's a problem in itself. His opponent was Ammar Campa-Najjar, whose campaign slogan was "Raise the Bar with Campa-Najjar". There's the first problem - corny slogans are bad, he got bad advice on that. Second problem - his campaign was unfocused and disorganized. I did canvass for him the one day, but the process to getting to that point made it clear this was the losing side. In a nutshell it was disorganized and scattered. I couldn't even determine who was in charge, nor who to contact. Next - even the scripts for canvassers were weak. We ignored ours and went with what we know works - focus on issues, not the man. He spent way too much time explaining that he is Christian (Arabic-Mexican), that Campa is his mother's maiden name, etc. Lastly - he was largely invisible outside the district with low to no media presence and little social media push. I got more emails and crap from the Beto campaign than his by far, despite contributing $$ to both. And finally - he was the wrong candidate for such a redneck district. They could have done better and picked a woman with an anglo name that didn't require constant explanation.
I hope the CA Dems learn from this and don't gloss it over.

So it's generally hopeful overall, we at least got back the House, so let the committee hearings commence!
I just hope the current House doesn't try to ram crap through before the newbies get sworn in... (Jan 1?)

Laura, such wonderful insight about Campa- Najjar and his campaign.  When Hunter is removed from office, a new opportunity will preset itself.  

I believe those who ran positive and thoughtful campaigns (yet lost) will be the inspiration for others who will win.

I am generally optimistic about how last night went. However, the candidate for governor in my home state of GA is refusing to concede - with good reasons. There were many reports of problems with voting, and voter suppression over the last several weeks and a whole other group of problems on the day (not enough machines delivered, no power supplies for machines, a voting location being foreclosed on with the machines inside the building on the morning of the election, etc. As I am an overseas voter, I am only allowed to vote for federal offices. In this case, my family and I voted in the 6th district of GA. The democratic candidate there, Lucy McBath holds a small lead over Karen Handel and their race will be subject to a recount. Please send positive energy to both McBath and Stacey Abrams. It is not easy for anyone who is not one of the good old boys to win in that state. I have great hope that things are changing there - even if it is too slow for my taste!

Also, I just happened to see part of a press conference with the president. He spent most of it shouting at reporters and rambling. He looked very agitated and angry. It is really disturbing to watch. 

Baba I saw that too.  https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-reaction-2018/h_cd5fd5d50e0918588e1cf9dcfd12e287

He is soo mad. Someone must of told him he is in deep water now with the Democrats taking over the house. This is the happiest I have ever been since he won the election.  No matter what has happened we won and it’s getting under his skin.  No more free fall for him and his enablers

Thank you, Matt and Laura, for your pep talk.  The fact that the races for Gilliam, Beto, and Abrams were as close as they are in three southern states with all the reports of shenanigans is amazing.  These great candidates aren't going anywhere.  

I am going to date myself here.  There was a song when I was a little kid by Lynn Anderson called Rose Garden that has been stuck in my head for two weeks.

 Rose Garden https://g.co/kgs/2EsmKj  

The song says, " I beg your pardon.  I never promised you a rose garden.  Along with the sunshine, there's got to be a little rain sometime."

I think the message is to enjoy the flowers that just bloomed.  Be in the moment.  We just had alot of sunshine mixed with some rain showers too.  We were not put on this earth to be on vacation.  This is a classroom where we always have a new test to pass.  We are always working to become more evolved. Sunshine is great, but without rain, you will never have flowers, you don't learn and grow.  You don't pull up all the flowers in your garden in the winter just because they aren't blooming. You mulch and put them to bed.  And you look forward to the flowers returning in the spring. A beautiful garden takes work.  You weed, fertilize, water, mulch and repeat over and over.

  After Obama was elected we thought racism was over and everything would be happily ever after. The GOP came in while we basked in the sun and took control at every level.  If we had gotten everything we wanted yesterday, we probably would be sunbathing again for the next two yrs instead of continuing to fight the good fight.  Yesterday was a big deal.  Both Kansas and Wisconsin have democratic governors.  The Kochs had a death grip on these states for years.  Colorado just elected Jared Polis as governor, a gay Jewish man.  Six years ago, our state house refused to even consider basic protection for gays.  We were called the hate state.  The NRA is weakening.  They spent far less than they usually do on this election.  The majority now favors stricter gun laws.  Washington just past some of those new gun laws.  So let's take a moment to enjoy the flowers that bloomed yesterday.  Then we need to pull on those gardening gloves.  We have another election to win in 2020.

Laura F. I apologize for supplying false information on Kim Davis. 

Jeff Sessions just resigned at trumps request.  The change in the WH has begun.  The news is saying that they don’t think this will effect the Russian investigation.  Wishful thinking?

Posted by: Matt

To anyone feeling torn about last night -- last night was an immense victory for the Democrats and its impact cannot be overstated.

When it comes to advancing your side in, say, a war, it's important to realize the victory conditions and the statuses of those conditions. Sometimes what appears to be a loss can really be a win and a win can be a loss. You have major victories, minor victories, stalemates, minor defeats, and major defeats. I think it's important that we break down a few things to put them in perspective:

 

Matt, I just want to say thank you for this post.  It was exactly what I needed to be reminded of today.   

Matt, you are 100% correct.

Yes, it wouldve been great to take the Senate too, but the house was taken by overcoming heavily gerrymandered districts. They beat the GOP on GOP territory using historically GOP voters(suburban white women). That is HUGE. The first step in beating your opposition is to stop them from gaining ground. The House now being a barrier between Trump and the freedom to do as he pleases is that stoppage. Now Trump is stuck in political purgatory. Yes he can still play with appointments and executive orders, but that is now the extent of his power. He will not pass any more damaging legislation and will spend most of his time running from investigations and campaigning for 2020. He has been effectively nullified as a legislative threat. There was also a kickback on his overt racism that did not go unnoticed. Now he is being told that if he keeps it up, he will lose by the same 8% that Dems won by last night, if not more. Winning is everything to him so he is now forcedd to dial back the divisiveness if he wants to win. 

I look at it sort of like a major battle in a war.

Imagine a city. The city is walled off and has a strong gate. Nearby there is a fort in a key location.

We had to take the fort. That was the primary objective. Under normal circumstances, the gate should have been impregnable and out of reach but this year there was an opening and it became a secondary, if long-shot, goal.

Yes, it would have been nice if we had taken down the gate so we could storm the city. The odds were heavily against it. As it were, we didn't succeed at that and those that occupy the city were able to muster up the means to fortify them a little bit (although not as much as they should have been otherwise). Battles were fought along the periphery, many of which we won but a few we did not.

The key to focus on is that we did, in fact, take the fort and are now in a much better position to launch key raids until reinforcements arrive in a couple of years. There is a giant siege engine being built in the form of the Mueller investigation. The war might very well have been over if we had failed in that objective but now we're in a much better position than we would have been otherwise.

This was a big victory in every sense of the term.

Mas1581,

He will never do as he has been told. He is a toddler in a total tantrum now. This man thinks and does what he wants no matter the consequences to him or his party. Matter of fact he is so delusional that he thinks the Republicans that won was because they embraced him and not the other way around. Please read this funny article on how one person live tweeted and tased trump on all the republicans that he endorsed that lost.. https://secondnexus.com/news/ally-maynard-tweets-trump-endorsement-losers/amp

Yes, Matt that is what i have been saying since last night. We won no matter what. A lot of races were close. This is the happiest i have been since Trump won

My favorite thing I saw online was from comic writer Andy Borowitz:

"Mueller counting down minutes until he can press SEND"

I laughed out loud for real!

I am also feeling slightly more optimistic than a few days ago. I just hope Twitler doesn't try to pull some real sh*t like starting a war with Iran... I do still worry he'll find a way to declare marshal law before the new Congress is sworn in.

LOL .  Mines is after Sessions was “resigned “ someone said trump was casting his next reality show.

Jessi,

Dont be confused by thinking that everything he says he believes. He knows when he loses and when that happens he feels that he has to spin/lie about the facts to make it a win. He also knows where his protection is. Yes, Trump is all about Trump and only Trump, but he is aware enough to know he needs certain people in certain places to keep him safe. He is very aware that he took a beating yesterday and that mistakes were made. He is also aware that his heavily divisive and racist plays to the base cost him house seats. That is why the presser today was all about "working with Dems unless they investigate him" and not "brown people storming the castle". He wont admit he went too far, but he also will tone it down because he doesnt want to lose more votes and not get reelected in 20. 

Matt, I loved your breakdown on a previous page with a positive perspective on the hard won gains we achieved. Absolutely agreed. I've also been seeing yesterday's results as an overall tactical win for Democrats in a crucial battle for the country.

It's turning out to be a longterm war, but we've known that. 

The fortified city you described is that "shining city on a hill,"* which I believe was taken by insurgents some time back. Tea Party Republicans, neo- and paleo-cons, the alt right, and white nationalists are only their more recent iterations, but whatever their party affiliation or tribal mating call, they've been sellouts to American oligarchs and corporations.

In absolute service-of-self, with only greed and avarice to guide them, they wrote their name in the Devil's book, handing over their souls—along with the best interests of the American people. What he gave them in return was power. Five of Swords—the power to win at all costs.

Though, that brand of power has another name: pride before the fall. 

Over time, these Insurgents have embedded themselves in the population, taking powerful positions in our churches, corporations, public sector, press/media, and the entertainment industry. Not only did we tolerate it, many eventually embraced it. Subtly and over time, the Insurgent Way became inseparable from the American Way, especially in the eyes of the rest of the world. It changed us. 

Just like Romans grown fat on power, these Insurgents didn't simply take over, they corrupted our laws and codes and founding doctrines, our most sacred principles and norms. They did this to ensure their power would continue untested (and because it's what any good Devil demands). Subverting and distorting moral norms and sacred vows (whether we call them secular contracts or not), actually traumatizes the People. (And trauma numbs and dissociates us, so that we're even less conscious, less aware of what we're agreeing to participate in.)

It's illustrative that, also like the Romans, they propped up a Golden Calf right on the street in the center of what they worship most. Pride before the fall. 

And while they've stuffed themselves on red meat and wine, the People have been starving and angry. So, the Insurgents made an old play out of an old playbook—twisted populism, outright lies. They put a leader in power who's just as good as Caesar at whipping the populace into a fearful, hateful frenzy over some imagined enemy out there. And Caesar said it best: It's very easy to make people afraid. If you use their fear to your advantage by making them afraid of something which you then promise to crush for them, they'll give all of their power over to you. Without question. Indeed, you will become their god. 

So, it isn't simply that the Progressive army needed to breech a gate, or even take a city. Before we could get to the battlefield or the polls, we needed to overcome years of powerful propaganda, deliberate distortions, ignorance, and apathy. In short, we needed to start waking up—ourselves and everyone around us. We needed to successfully fight an asymmetrical war against entrenched disenfranchisement and suppression.

We needed to win the People back. I'd say we have, and we'll keep winning more. Only now can we launch a widespread offensive against the enemy in order to win our country back. 

With a new Democratic foothold, Republicans will be forced to go on the defensive. Their leader faces an onslaught from all directions, and when he's cornered, he attacks his own. With each test, they'll be pushed further and further back. It won't be easy, and it won't always be clear. They have a lot of dark and dirty tricks at their disposal, and the one thing they're very very good at is sleeping spells.

Still, as a nation, we're on a collective Hero's Journey. Our trials are nowhere near over, but I'd say we passed the second threshold into hell some time back. If we've learned anything, it's how to get around in the Underworld. As long as we keep going, we're well on our way toward transformation and atonement. Or as some scholars call it, "reclaiming the sword."

*[In Reagan's famous speeches, he quoted Jesus' sermon ("city on a hill"), but there's evidence that he often secretly referenced the brilliant occult scholar, Manly P. Hall, author of Secret Destiny of America. Hall believed that 1,000 years before its discovery, American democracy was already part of a "Great Plan" by esoteric organizations who were working to usher in a new age of religious and personal freedom.]

VestraLux -- wonderful post, as always!

I just wanted to add, as I've mentioned in another thread, there is another battle tomorrow: mass protests are scheduled across the country in reaction to the replacement of Rod Rosenstein as the overseer of the Mueller Investigation. You can find your nearest place of protest here: MoveOn.org: MULLER PROTECTION RAPID RESPONSE

Wasn’t there a prediction that Arizona and New Mexico would be surprises? Rachel Maddow just broke that a projected congressional win in New Mexico - a republican woman who gave a victory speech last night - has actually just lost due to more than 8,000 votes being discovered that weren’t counted. The dem candidate never conceded, so it looks like she is now the winner.

That's great news Saibh. I'm not a US citizen but I feel so proud and joyful for everyone for the results. The hard work done by Dems and others in rallying people to vote has paid off. I hope this lesson will not be forgotten in the future, that everyone's vote does count and how important it is for people to exercise their right to vote, to use that voice they have. I feel that in democracies there is a tendency to get a little complacent - democracies can be overturned, they aren't set in stone, so we have to all contribute to protecting them and voting is one part of that.

I was so happy to hear about Dems not conceding in the election. I think it was totally the right thing to do - they made the right statements about every vote needing to be counted as people had made the effort to do so (I was amazed at the length of the voting lines you have in the US), and I think this helps to make people feel that yes, their vote is valuable. That's so important.

It's a good victory regarding the House. It shows what can be acheived. I don't think it means challenging times aren't over, far from it, but I think it's a really important step. I imagine now Trump will be blaming Dems for every little thing that doesn't go right, or is seen as a problem - he'll say they have the House majority therefore it's their fault. So it'll be tough going forward in that respect too. I just hope Dems keeping pushing the truth and facts out there when this happens and don't let him get away with his bull.

Hi Everyone,

A quick update on the race for the 6th district in Georgia. The Republican candidate conceded. The Democrat, Lucy McBath, is our new representative. I can not remember this ever happening since I have been voting. She advocates for gun control and social justice. The seat was held in the past by both Newt Gingrich and Tom Price (formerly in Trump’s cabinet). This is big and shows how the demographics have changed over the years in that area. 

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/breaking-karen-handel-concedes-6th-district-race-major-dem-upset/zjR9rb9Giqg6eZMZWw5woI/

Let’s hope that Stacey Abrams will get a fair count of the votes after all of the shady stuff that happened on Election Day.