From what I have read and analyzed, the french election is extremely similar to the United States.
I'm 90% confident that Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron will win the first round of the French Elections on April 23rd.
Of these two, I'm 70% positive that Marine Le Pen will win the election on May 1 only because Macron is not inspiring confidence in the younger generations. A lot of people don't like that he married his teacher, has limited executive experience, and that he is too moderate (to the point that he doesn't take a side at all). As for Marine Le Pen, people see her as having reformed the National Front Party from something "crazy" under her father, into something "elegant and restrained". Also, the recent attacks in France will be fresh in the mind of the public who will be more receptive to her message of secular prejudice.
I leave a little room for Macron or someone else to win, only because some of the french view Marine Le Pen as just another Trump and don't want that for their country, and in fact have been forecasting the idea to sway voters to move away from candidates like Le Pen.
However, my gut tells me that Le Pen is the most likely to win.
Disclaimer: Not coming from a psychic perspective. Based purely on my knowledge of history, current trends, and sociology.
I feel very uncertain about my own predictions. With the exception that I cannot see Macron doing well, no matter how much the media boosts him up. Zoron can you please weigh in on how this latest terrorist attack in the Champs Elysses in Paris will affect the outcome. I can't see that it affects it much at all, but again I'm very uncertain, this feels foggy to me.
Macron and Le Pen going to the next round... scary.
So, a marine le pen victory in 7th may and a new british goverment that will push for brexit even faster. Looks like euro is in big trouble by the end of next year.
Macron and Le Pen going to round #2:
I heard that terror attack was a result of homegrown domestic terror in France, someone who hated the police. Instead, it got blamed on ISIL.
Very scary, Asian. I think I want to move to another planet until this mess is over. Feeling so helpless.
This is the end of world order built after ww2. Everything gets destroyed after they have served their purpose. Otherwise, new order can't be built on their ashes. This is the fire thats getting spread around the world, eventually everyone and everything will burn. It's sad but nesscesery.
You are most likely right, we cant continue like this where greed rules the world. However Im Taurus and find change very difficult :)
Collective consiousness is starting to get higher level and in 7-10 years things will be better on that front. However, world will be a mess. It's likely to happen before rejecting old and embracing new. Don't fear the nationalism though. When people who wants to change status-quo won't get what was promised, will rebel. This is why local goverment will sprang up all over the world. Because, people will ultimately realise you can not rely on others(goverment) to get what you want, you are the maker of your own. You are the god of your own reality.
G - generator.
O - operator.
D - destroyer.
And, those new local govts will fall instantly if people don't like it. The rise of referendums are a step towards in that regard. In a digitized society with a samll govt this wont be impossible. And, unlike previous era goverments will not fight each other but co-operate with each other. Until now negetive nationalism meant love for own country equaled to attacking another country. Perhaps, first world war was the best example of this. In new age it will be positive nationalism, this will mean working for betterment of your own country. Of course, wars as we know them will cease to exist. But, as you saw in my another post it will take few decades to achive this.
Thank you very much, its scary but it gives hope that future generations will have better future. Im only hoping all of this change can happen without people getting violent against each other. Non violent resistance.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-would-a-le-pen-victory-in-france-mean-for-markets-1492858801
"As French voters hit the polls, investors are grappling with a remote yet not implausible possibility—victory for Marine Le Pen.
On Sunday, the anti-euro leader of the far-right National Front appeared to have made it through to the second round alongside centrist Emmanuel Macron, according to early projections.
Ms. Le Pen appears unlikely to triumph in May’s second-round vote. The euro rose by more than 2% to above $1.09 against the dollar as the polls projected a slight lead in the first poll for Mr. Macron and as it appeared that far left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon had failed to make it past the first stage.
If early projections hold, investors believe markets are likely to bet on a victory for Mr. Macron in the second round. Still, “I wouldn’t price [Le Pen] out entirely,” said Stephen Gallo, strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
Analysts say the fear of a Le Pen victory could still pose a risk to European equities and spur concerns over the future of the eurozone.
“It would be seismic, bigger than Trump or Brexit for markets, if Le Pen got into office and called into question the euro itself,” said Paul Griffiths, chief investment officer of fixed income and multiasset at First State Investments.
In her campaign, Ms. Le Pen has vowed to take France out of the euro and bring back the franc, which could cause the country to default on its debt while questioning the viability of weaker eurozone economies such as Spain and Italy.
Ahead of the first round, options trading suggested investors were bracing for large swings in markets across Europe and were buying protection against a steep move in the Euro Stoxx 50 index of eurozone blue-chip stocks.
The yield premium demanded to hold 10-year French government bonds over their German counterparts climbed to 0.73 percentage point last week before narrowing in recent sessions, compared with just 0.22 in September.
Concern had also spread to the euro. The gap between the volatility that derivatives predict for the euro-dollar exchange rate and the current actual volatility of that pair climbed last week to its most extreme in a decade, according to Macro Risk Advisors.
In equity markets, attention will likely turn first to France’s benchmark CAC 40 stock index, which has climbed roughly 4% this year. Its listed companies source 26% of their revenues from France and 61% from Europe as a whole, according to FactSet.
Companies with a larger share of overseas revenues, as well as more defensive shares such as consumer staples and pharmaceuticals, are seen as better positioned to weather any turmoil. French banks are seen as particularly vulnerable in the event of a political shock.
If Ms. Le Pen is elected, “you cannot imagine a German or Italian insurance company would keep their [money] in France,” given the risk to the euro, said Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Natixis Asset Management.
Foreign-based investors own a large share of French debt, holding around 60% of government bonds. If they flee France, borrowing costs would likely climb, hitting French companies and the wider economy, Mr. Waechter said.
But the whole eurozone is likely to suffer, investors say, given questions over the entire project’s future.
“It’s the installation of huge structural risk and a lot of investors are just going to avoid it,” said Michael Thompson, managing director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Investors would instead likely move money back into U.S. stocks and bonds, he said.
Recent inflows into European equities from global investors could also make the region’s shares more vulnerable to any surprises, some analysts say.
The eurozone is currently investors’ favorite region for equities, with France the second most popular market in the region, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s April survey of fund managers. In the last month, the rotation out of U.S. stocks into eurozone equities was among the largest since 1999. That came even as political risk from the region was cited as the biggest tail risk for global markets.
“People are more optimistic about European equities than any time since the crisis,” said Pravit Chintawongvanich, chief derivatives strategist at Macro Risk Advisors. “If you get this unexpected outcome, it completely changes your calculus,” he said.
While estimates vary, analysts predict a roughly 5%-10% fall in eurozone equities in the event of a Le Pen victory. Some believe that while U.S. equities could also initially sell off, the declines would be much smaller and stocks would likely quickly rebound, much as they did two days after the Brexit vote.
To be sure, investors point to several major hurdles between Ms. Le Pen’s election and a so-called Frexit, even if she was to beat Mr. Macron. She would need support from the French prime minister to call a referendum on euro membership, which is unlikely unless she also wins a parliamentary majority. Around two-thirds of the French population still supports the euro.
Across Europe, markets have quickly bounced back from surprising political outcomes that had been presumed unfavorable for stocks. Italy’s benchmark FTSE MIB Index has gained 16.2% since Italians rejected constitutional reform in December and handed populists a victory, compared with a 14.1% gain for the wider Euro Stoxx 50 over that time. London’s FTSE 250 index has gained 11.7% since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union last June.
If Mr. Macron, the mainstream candidate, is elected, European stocks could be poised for big gains, given recent improvements in the European economy and corporate earnings.
“There’s pent-up demand for European assets,” said Mislav Matejka, equity strategist at J.P. Morgan . If the French elections don’t result in a disruptive outcome, “this is the year for European equities,” he said."
Thank you WarriorWitch for the article. It's very interesting.
This election will be monumental for Europe.
Here's hoping for the best!
Le Pen has step aside from her leader as National Front Party.
She's smart. By disassociating herself, she's hoping to gain more voters who are on the fence. They will look at her actions as distancing herself from the radical right. However, her actions may in fact back fire. It all depends on whether or not her National Front following turns out to vote or resents her for leaving. Nevertheless, she has shaken up the playing field.
Two parties who have governed france for last 50 years have not been able to progress to second round. Looks like a revolution already happend. Marine le pen remains the only traditional politician with a loyal supportar base in the second round. On the other hand, emanuel macron is an 'outsider' no matter how you put it, it will be difficult for him to influence national assembly without any party, any political movement. His supporter base is not solid like le pen's. They have been cobbled together in the last few months. If he wins he would have to worry about how to keep his voter base together. It will be not be an easy task. On the other hand, FN will surely increase their tally in july. Most french youth are already divided between left and right camp, according to this article.
http://m.france24.com/en/20170424-france-presidential-election-youth-vote-melenchon-le-pen
If she lose even then marine le pen will continue to be influencial in french politics. France is already changing.
Asian,
I love your insights.
If what you say is true, then her base will follow her. She will thusly, be bolstering her voter numbers by "distancing" herself from the FN. The right leaning youth will likely vote for her because they will not support Macron. If Macron is to succeed, he will quickly need to tie together his bases into a cohesive unit. But with the time he has, it's very slim that he will.
Hoping for the best though! I would rather see Macron than Le Pen.
The world order is changing rapidly. Two parties who governed france for last 50 years has polled together total 26.37% vote.
Macron on the other hand is a clearly an 'establishment' candidate. He do not have any problem regarding resources, media coverage and have full patronisation of defeated candidates. But, it is not about macron or this election. This is more about his view and stand point. First of all, the cultural globalism is opposed by (le pen+fillion) and economic front is opposed by (le pen+melanchon). Not to mention that will mean most youths are against macron's version of economy. Now the roman catholic organisation's are refusing to support macron.
It will mean that these voters are not his supporters at all. After the election, voters will go back to their respective political bases. On the other hand, le pen won't lose any of her voter base whether she win or loses. In medium term, it is melanchon and le pen who are two of the most influencial politician in french political scene. So, in a social scene radical left vs far-right battle in franch.
Besides, macron is an outsider, winning an election and running a goverment that too in this unstable world is not an easy task. His real challenge will begin after election(if he wins). A deeply divided nation with regular terrorist attacks. Economic troubles where youths are not happy with his economic visions, his two main adversaries control the youth. This is not finished at all.
Elaine, I agree with you, this is very scary. Putin wants weak west thats why he supports all disasters Trump, Brexit, Le Pen. He is calculative and smart, all of this is weakening west but it just might backfire. What terrible times...
If the media can’t talk about it how will anyone in France know what’s in the hacked documents?
it maybe the hacking happened too late to influence the election?
UK next?