Lawrence,
I see what you did there. ?
I've felt strongly for a while now that SDNY will be his ultimate undoing. I continue to believe that T and his whole family are indicted on multiple counts. Vance, I don't trust, but Leticia James is not to be messed with and she hates T.
I, too, am awaiting Allyn's assessment of the court's decisions today.
Frankly, I don't understand why the NY case is "blocked" after the ruling.
The Supreme court basically punted on the Congressional case. I don't know or understand the long term reasons why they did so. I do know that on the short term, Trump will continue to delay delay delay, like he always does.
I'm impatient. I've "dealt with it" for 3+ years. I'm tired of "dealing with it".
Yes, AG Leticia James is not going to let him escape.
Love that both of T's Supreme Court appointees voted against him today. This will drive him crazy.
Well...more crazy. Lol.
[disclaimer: I am also a lawyer, so here is my take on the SCOTUS rulings re taxes today]
The ruling re NYS (Vance) is a definite win for the rule of law. The court held that the president is not immune to state criminal prosecutions while he is in office. This should have been obvious (given the court's previous rulings on Nixon and Clinton), but it's still good to have it said. The reason it goes back to the NY court is because, now that Trump cannot hide behind immunity, the case may proceed. The reason it will take forever is because civil litigation takes forever. Trump still has the right (as Roberts "helpfully" pointed out,) to try to block the subpoena on the same grounds as any civilian might - that it is irrelevant or overbroad etc., and the NY court will have to decide those issues. If the subpoena is granted and complied with, then the case goes to the grand jury (where it will still be secret). So, in sum, it's a win for the rule of law, a loss for trump, and, as with everything these days, it will just take some time for us to see the outcome, but it will come.
The Congress case is a little less fun. The Supreme Court held that, although Congress has the right to subpoena a president's information, the court below in this case did not take adequate account of the "significant separation of powers concerns" implicated by subpoenas from the House of Representatives seeking the president's financial records. This is definitely a punt, but not totally illogical. SCOTUS just wants the lower court to redo the analysis of whether Congress needs these documents in consideration of the separation of powers (there is a slight tone of condescension towards both congress and the president for not being able to negotiate this and figure it out without drawing in the court). In this case, the lower court could redo the analysis and decide that, even with a new analysis, Congress should get the docs; or it could go the other way. Either way could lead to more appeals.
The NYS case is a win, and the congress case is more of a draw. Niether case resolves in Trump's favor though, so in that sense both are wins - he has to keep fighting them. FWIW, it was highly unlikely that either of these cases would have resolved the issues so that we could see the documents immediately (maybe the congress one would have). The truth will come out, it's just a matter of time.
NYC is not playing around. T will never recover.
Also because he is losing in the polls, people are not afraid of him. Including some in his party. Fleeing the sinking ship.
Does it occur to anyone that Spirit wants Trump to stay in Office until November (or beyond)?
I mean, as much of a "victory" these court decisions were, they do absolutely nothing towards the November elections (unless, somehow, the NY courts can get the documents and do something with them before November, which, I'm sure Trump will fight/delay as much as possible).
I'm disappointed, mostly because I keep hoping we'll FINALLY get the stake to drive through the heart of this vampire, and each time (Mueller report, Trump's Taxes) we have a real shot at getting this weapon, we are denied.
Is it because if Trump is gone, then we won't have the Blue Wave necessary to remove the GOP from the Senate? Will people be "too complacent" because the imminent threat is gone? Is it that we haven't "suffered enough outrage" as a collective that we need to suffer some more, because some people are on the fence about making this a better world....and we need these people to succeed?
*Long Exhale*
I feel the way you do. I’m really concerned that we haven’t learned enough from these Trump years yet and will have to suffer more. I deeply detest feeling this way, but I don’t think we’ve learned our lessons.
Just look at how COVID is playing out. We went right back to normal with hardly a thought for consequences.
Whenever I want T gone right this second, I remember that P as the VP will take over, and he's just as bad (worse, I think) as T. So perhaps this is why we have to hang on a few more months and do everything in our power in Nov to switch things from red to blue.
There have been several analyses on Twitter threads about this, and the majority are not happy with the decision overall. The problem is that it's unlikely that anything legal will happen to the Orange One before the elections, and the court has basically give him a free pass for violating the rule of law. Okay, yes, the Court affirmed that the rule of law applies, but it's too little, too late. He's already gotten away with obstructing justice, and there will be no punishment for that - just the ruling that yes, he has to comply with the law. Essentially, Justice Roberts protected Orange with this decision because if all goes well and he is voted out, he will not indicted until after the election, and by then it won't matter because he's no longer President. If he wins in November, he's still protected by immunity as President. This is a pyrrhic victory, unfortunately.
And now....another round of Allyn's analysis.
Today, the Supreme Court, for lack of a better word, punted the ball when it came to Trump's taxes. They said that the New York DA can get them, but that Congressional Democrats can't. Both cases were sent back to the lower courts to issue the rulings consistent with the Supreme Court's opinions.
Now, at first glance, it seems like a partial victory for Trump, as it pretty much guarantees that the House Democrats can't release Trump's taxes prior to the election. Even though the New York DA gets the tax records, he must keep them secret for purposes of the grand jury. They can only be released if the tax records becomes evidence of an indictment, which will take at least a few months.
However, this is actually a long-term victory for Democrats.
Why, you may ask? Democrats can't get his taxes before the election so they can't prove Trump is a fraud (or worse)!
Allow me to present a few things for you to consider:
(1) It was very, very unlikely that we would see Trump's taxes before the election anyway if they came from the Congressional Democrats and/or the New York DA. And if they did, Trump would do his usual "I'm the victim of the evil liberals!"
Now, let's ask ourselves one important thing;
How do we know that someone else doesn't have Trump's taxes?
Suppose, just for sake of argument, that there is someone out there who has a copy of Trump's tax records. It might be a disgruntled employee, a former Trump associate (Cohen, whom has just been placed back into custody), an angry family member (Mary Trump), or someone else with the political knowledge on how best to capitalize on Trump's tax records being released (Pelosi, the Lincoln Republicans, the National Democratic Party, etc.)
Now, if you really want to hurt Trump with his taxes, you need to wait for just the right moment. It may be (1) when it appears that Biden is frailing from a made-up scandal that Trump will no doubt use to try to win or (2) the month of October, to allow the public to be bombarded with the revelations of Trump's tax misdeeds a few weeks before election and yet give Republicans very little opportunity to change the narrative and mislead the public about it.
This decision helps with this tactic. Because of this decision, Democrats in Congress can't get the tax records (not yet, anyway) and the New York DA can't leak them because it would compromise his investigation into Trump's misdeeds.
But if a different person released Trump's documents (in particular, Cohen, another of Trump's associates, Mary Trump, or even the Lincoln Project), then Trump can't whine about how the "evil liberals" are out to get him because it would be someone close to him and/or a Republican who released them.
Further, if this person released the records just before election, then Trump has little time to retaliate and/or arrest that person. If the Democrats win, that person will be released from prison and probably be hailed as a hero, since no one can argue that the person somehow damaged national security by releasing Trump's tax records. Basically, that person would take on the role of a whistleblower.
I suspect Trump is already trying to plug any potential leaks of his tax records now since he knows what will likely happen come October. Is it merely coinsedence that the US Marshalls chose to arrest Cohen today after he refused to agree to keep his mouth shut (no book deals, not allowing his family to post things on Facebook on his behalf, etc.) about the Trump case? Remember, he didn't technically violate any conditions of his release, so I find it highly suspicious that he gets arrested now.
So just because the Supreme Court's decision means that we won't get the tax results from the legal channels, that doesn't mean we won't get them from an outside source.
(2) This decision does hurt Trump in the long run, because the Supreme Court is saying that Trump CAN be investigated by the New York DA and ultimately can be tried and convicted while being President. Thus, it doesn't matter if he is re-elected or not. He doesn't get immunity while he is in office. Period.
Trump knows this (and he is haunted by the spectre that his taxes may be released either legally or illegally in the future). He knows that even if he wins re-election in November, he can still be indicted on charges in New York, and there is nothing he can do about it.
Further, if the New York DA does file charges against Trump, then the House Democrats can discretly get the evidence from that case and either (1) have federally related charges filed against Trump and/or (2) use the evidence as the basis of a new Impeachment hearing where, hopefully, the Democrats will control the House and the Senate and will ensure a fair proceeding this time around. Then Trump will be the President who was impeached twice.
The bottom line? Trump can be charged while in office. While he will do everything possible to delay the process as much as he can, the fact remains that this will subject the country to another four years of scandal and/or trials.
Now, if you are a regular voter, who would you prefer? Biden, whom had spent eight years as the VP and had hardly any scandal attached to him (other than what Republicans make up, of course)? Or would you want Trump, who has just had an impeachment hearing and, if re-elected, will almost certainly be charged and/or impeached again, which means that the country can't focus on the problems it is facing?
This is what ultimately sunk Hillary, as many voters were tired of the Clinton saga. This same tactic is now being used against Trump (and Trump is helping through his own misdeeds). Many voters with no allegiance to Republicans or Democrats will likely pick Biden because (1) people tend to go for stability during a time of crisis, and our country is definitely in a crisis right now, and (2) those independent voters are tired of Trump's drama and will likely not feel the need to suffer another four years of scandals and crimes that Trump keeps doing.
(3) The best thing about this decision is that it will, in the long run, hurt Republicans.
Why, you may ask?
Simple. Because it cuts off the Republicans' favorite weapon-fake investigations.
Let's say Biden wins and the Democrats sweep the House and Senate. While I would like to believe that the Republicans' actions are such that they will be denied power for a long time, I am not such a fool as to believe that eventually the good voters will become complacent and the Republicans will resort to their usual whining to incite the base and eventually get control of one or both Houses at some point during Biden's term. This may happen because Biden and the Democrats do something outrageous like (gasp!) strengthen Obamacare or leave DACA alone.
You would think that the public would not be stupid enough to fall for it. But Trump was elected President, so I doubt the intelligence of a good portion of the country. Especially the area I live in.
So let's say that the Republicans retake the House and/or Senate at some point during Biden's term. They will no doubt resort to their methods of trying to obstruct bills being passed and/or launching investigations to try to dig up dirt on Biden and anyone else connected with him.
However, Republicans will have a problem.
Today's Supreme Court decision, which is currently being used against Democrats, can in turn be used against Republicans. Basically, Biden or any President can point to today's decision to limit Congress's power to investigate. So while this decision hurts Democrats in the short term, it may ultimately be used against Republicans in a few years so they can't go back to their usual "Benghazi!" tactics.
In conclusion, don't let this decision get you down, because it is ultimately a victory for Democrats moving forward. While it certainly would be nice to get Trump's taxes prior to the election in a legal way, there is other ways that an outside party can release Trump's tax records prior to the election, so I certainly see why Trump is so angry about the decision today. Further, this case may ultimately be the means in which we can finally muzzle the Republicans once and for all by putting an end to their ridiculous investigations that they have conducted for nothing more than to damage their opponents and not out of any real desire to find the truth.
In other news, the Supreme Court found that land in Oklahoma (including Tulsa) is actually Indian land, as this was based on an old treaty that was never overturned in Congress. Therefore, any crimes there is subject to federal law and not state law.
It is about time.
This will cause some havoc in Oklahoma for a bit, as Trump will no doubt engage in some sort of stupidity such as try to pressure the Senate to pass a law revoking the treaty because....well, let's just say it! Trump is a racist and the fact that the Supreme Court is saying that old treaties can be enforced against his precious red states by people who are not white is simply too unbearable for him to take. So he will "stir the pot" and cause another scandal which will continue to turn mainstream America against him.
So, overall, it was a pretty good day, even though it will take some time for the likely outcomes of both of these cases to become evident. In a way, today is a little like a hospital visit where the doctor tells you that there is an underlying health problem that you need to take care of (say, high cholesterol, for example). While it may upset you to know you have it and need to take measures to get it under control, it is ultimately a good thing because you are given information that can save your life later. Had you not received the information and did not take the steps to improve your health, you could drop dead from a heart attack and have no chance to prevent it.
So today's decision is much like that. Not the fantastic news we were hoping for, but news that can potentially be beneficial in the long run if we take the necessary steps to capitalize on it.
So smile! Let your light shine for everyone to see. We are getting stronger and fighting the darkness back!
I respectfully disagree (But I'm a lawyer, so rule of law/precedent is really important to me). I think this only looks like a pyrrhic victory. A 'political' victory maybe, since he may not be exposed before the elections, but in the end he (and his family members) will get indicted, whether he is a sitting president or not. Let's say that god forbid he wins - he can still be indicted! (and we could impeach him again and maybe win this time!). And if he loses, he can still be indicted AND go to jail!
I'm not sure what people were expecting the Supreme Court to do here - publish the records immediately? That wasn't on the table. They could have issued an earlier decision, which may have sped up the process, but it may not have.
I'm also confused about who needs to see his taxes to decide not to vote for him? is there anyone who is thinking, well everything he has done so far is fine with me, but if he cheated on his taxes, then I won't vote for him?
Don't get me wrong, I will relish the day when those taxes come out (and they will) and it proves everything we've been saying all along. I guess I just don't think they need to come out before November at this point.
Check out Neal Katyal's take (if I'm allowed to link to it): https://twitter.com/neal_katyal/status/1281257228683620352
So when the tax subpoena case goes back to the lower court what would be his argument on why they can’t get his taxes? He can’t say that he has immunity because he is a so called “President” he now knows that is not going to save him.
Thanks for the info!
I question I have: In the midst of the pandemic are grand juries anywhere actually convening?
I have the feeling that the SCOTUS punt tactic puts the timeline into next year at a minimum, even if a grand jury convenes on the case in NY.
And just FYI - grand juries in the State of New York convene for 1 month, not a week or two, this is to give them adequate time to review everything for cases, however it also means that typically everyone tries to get out of grand jury service because in NY your employer is not required to pay you while you serve.