When I was commenting, on my own post, about the Sanders-Warren Presidential run, I said, in reply that there would be a shift to "A somewhat disunited states eventually". That sort of popped out, on autoscript, when I was writing up the response to your last comments. This happens sometimes, and I always do a check on these "Autoscripts" later. So:
Early days, but somewhat interesting. The phrase " Somewhat disunited states" is fairly accurate. Centrifugal political, economic and social forces are going to do this. Some of it has actually already happened. On the surface, the USA is culturally and socially united as never before, due to the Web, modern comms, travel, etc. BUT: Kinda things are stirring, at a deep level. The main polarisation is already going on. it is between "Hate states" and what might be called "Lberal-progressive" states. It is a gathering storm. It will get much worse. People will leave, (as they are now doing already) and move to a state "Where they feel more comfortable". This shift of populations is going on, and accelerating . its partly driven by the culture wars, politics, etc, and economic.
But the result, 20 years down the track, is very large regional blocks, and social and political forces, that are increasing the already existing "Regions" of the USA even more. Significantly, the South, (old south) is going to resurge. It will also, (with some exceptions) become a sort of "Hate-States Block". Not good. There will also be a lot of discussion, in the next decade, amongst Black political radicals, of a Black separatist state or social division. (Mostly discussion, but events might give it some drive, in the future). Other social forces, within the regional blocks, will also become powerful. I am speaking, here, of the US Black population. There will be an increasing sense of dis empowerment, social segregation, and isolation, and this will be class and economically based. But the black professional claand socially sses will be unhappy, about ths situation. So, increasing isolation and frustration of the American black underclass.
This will also be mirrored by a significant increase in poor whites, who will become radicalised by the situation. The radicalisation will be split, between Left and Right, but mostly Right.
Likewise, a growing sense of frustration and disempowerment, amongst middle class whites, who will get increasingly angry at how things are going, for both them, and the country. Mostly, they will move into left/right blocks.
If you stand back, and look at all this closely, all the ingredients are there for a "Pre-Rwevolutionary situation". I think that the 2024 and 2028 elections are going to be absolutely key, in America. They decide the future, for the next 50 years afterwards. That serious.
What I get, is that by 2030, there is a sort of "Radical restructuring" of America going on, at all levels. Its a straight left/right struggle, but racially and socially polarised.
I do absolutely see a reformist American government, in the late twenties, (possibly earlier) but it has huge internal enemies. It is under siege. Its a replay of the radical sixties, but much much more violent.
Add to the mix the huge "Climate tsunami" now heading our way, globally, in the next 15 years, (Yes, that close) and the future is going to be damn interesting, for those fated to live in it.
I am posting this, but holding certain elements back, as I want to see if they are picked up on here by the "Inmates" lol. Discuss, crew! Addendum: This is posted as the start of a long term thread., THE FATE OF AMERICA. I think this will be a very important thread for the site. Please try to look, in comments, on things I have missed, or not said yet, and also your own deep feelings and scanning on the issues.
It's funny you mentioned people moving to states they feel more comfortable...My family & I are in the process of doing just this. Currently we live in PA - Philly suburb. Our state has become purple & even things as simple as a $100 per household to restore & expand crumbling school infrastructure & expand schools due to population growth has become contentious. Racial slurs spray painted on local walls - stealing of opponents school signs- just a level of in- civility & unleashing of bitterness that is distressing - not to mention PA was critical in voting in DT ( even though my county was blue). After the second time in 8 years our family has had to deal with job insecurity we are leaving. In some ways this makes me sad since we have family here, it's a beautiful part of the country, and we have many friends here. But, I feel we are being pushed out by the universe. So, we are making plans to move to New York - between a cheaper house that offers more options for me (us) to expand my business, good schools, active arts community, & the Excelsior Scholarship- where if all hell breaks loose - at least I am fairly certain I can send my kids to college. It makes sense. Yes taxes are higher- but with the ability to expand the business & college opportunities for my kids it's far more affordable then to try to slog it out where I am. I'm thinking some people will start to realize that pooling money together via taxes - responsibly to fund communal benefits- like healthcare, schools, college affordability makes more sense then needing your extra $100 to put in your pocket & make sure no one else gets to benefit from it. I'd rather be with people of a like mindset where I can try to contribute some good in the world- thinking there is strength in numbers. I get exhausted trying to explain that $100 in taxes to deal with needed repairs to the school will save you thousands by increasing your property value or why guns in schools is a bad idea. So off we go, as soon as possible....I just hope there is a possibility where the US comes back to sanity & we can heal from this mess. Somehow maybe, we all figure this out before the situation becomes more dire than it already is.
New York is a good choice, Shawn. But the last time I checked, the biggest political divide in this country is not among states. It's between rural and urban. Upstate NY has always been more right wing compared to NYC. So be sure to check the locality where you are moving before you go.
Jeanne, We are hoping to move to the Ithaca area.
I don't know why I feel so strongly about this, but I do. I have never felt that the United States should have been one country, it really boils down to how we define a nation state. In my country Canada there are sharp cultural and linguistic divisions which might tear us apart one day, but right now are amicable. In the United States I think the situation is worse, while language is not a divider, folkways, culture and way of life are. I do not want to live anywhere near Trump voters, and this is something I will be thinking about when it comes time to move more permanently. The values of Blue and red America are irreconcilable, they just are. I've long thought the reason the United States has never been viewed as quite as civilized as many other countries is because of the south and the racial tensions and greed that permeates much of the culture. It is clear now that this is not going away, even though an enormous number of Americans want nothing to do with it. Communities that take better care of their people do better, you all lift each other up, and I think that's the future. I don't understand where the hate on display today comes from, I'm currently reading the book white working class by Joanne Williams, where she tries to make us all understand the folkways of these people. But no amount of understanding is ever going to explain the hate.
hi Natalie, and Shawn, thanks for the feedback. I was somewhat apprehensive when I posted this, but felt I had to try and deal with the raw truth I was getting in a sensible way. i did say, by the way, incase you missed it: "I do absolutely see a reformist American government, in the late twenties, (possibly earlier)" so thats something. also as will be clearer in the next post on this subject, the "Dark State forces" are not, ultimately, going to win. but it is not going to be an easy ride. By the way, here in Europe, we are going through the same stuff. BREXIT is playing hell with the UK.
but please keep the comments coming. I think a seperate, cold, calm analysis of what is going on, what willl go on, and what has not yet started going on, is vital. Thanks for posting.
Thank you for reiterating that there is hope - although the waters are pretty rough here ( US) in UK, Europe, and many places around the globe. I have been sending love & praying every day for current leaders, people here & abroad, and our environment. I do have faith that good will win out, hoping sooner rather than later. In meantime, hold onto our hats ?
No worries in Ithaca. It's a progressive university town. Although I don't know what it's like in the burbs of Ithaca. Here's what Wikipedia said of Ithaca: Politically, the majority of city's voters (many of them students) have supported liberalism and the democratic party. A November 2004 study by Podunk ists it as New York's most liberal city.This contrasts with the more conservative leanings of the generally rural Upstate New York region; the city's voters are also more liberal than those in the rest of Thomkins County.
Shawn - I grew up in NYC, and spent a lot of time upstate, as did my husband. Ithaca is a good choice, being a college town it's more liberal. It's similar to Burlington in VT. It's really pretty there, too. Just be aware that upstate NY is where I have met some of the most racist people I have ever encountered. It's also where the Mormons founded their religion. There's also a lot of tension in NYS between Orthodox Jewish Communities and surrounding communities, lots of issues of church-state separation. You're probably aware of much of this, but I'm just pointing out a few items for those who don't know the area. Best part of upstate NYS is that you can cross into Canada very easily if the need ever arises.
Hi Zoron, and thanks for the post. Very interesting. As I commented in the Sanders-Warren post, it creates very mixed feelings, both of wanting to protect the union and questioning how much of a union we really have. I guess it goes without saying that if the US does divide up in such a way, we will no longer be a "superpower," but then that kind of begs the question of whether any country should be a superpower. In your scanning, have you picked up anything with regard to whether superpowers will still exist (Russia, China, etc), whether anyone will actively try to take over any sections of a divided US? And when one section (section or separate countries or still states?) has an emergency, will concepts like federal aid no longer exist? What about government? I have so many questions! : )
I will be happy to remain in California as far as its ideology, but hope it won't undergo too much trauma from attack or earthquake (let us know if you're seeing anything!). Also currently find myself being priced out of housing, even the rental market. Should have kept my house here when I had one. I grew up in southern California and find my housing options getting worse and worse as I get older. Crazy expensive here.