The chances of a second snap general election are pretty close to zero. It didn't go well the last time around, so the Tories aren't repeating that mistake. And the chances of a second referendum are also pretty close to zero. No point for the Tories in asking again.
May is holding on for the moment, but she won't last till the end of the year. Michael Gove is the most likely replacement right now. Which means a pretty hard Brexit.
I was not surprised at the situation, and the resignations. It looks bad. it will get worse. The next four weeks are crucial. May will not survive, ultimately, but will cling on for a while. The Tories will try and find a compromise leader, but will face serious trouble from the rest of the parliament. The Ulster Unionists will end up in disaster, and we will end up with a non functioning Zombie Government. An election is possible,. If that happens, Corbyn will win, by a narrow margin but that may change. Corbyn is anti-EU. So the disaster will continue. The time lines are all over the place. will watch carefully. Its going to take a week to settle down, and to get a clear scanning of the situation. What a mess.
Without a doubt Zoron, I keep seeing different time lines and outcomes. Usually I see one and the strength of it makes me sure in its outcome. For the past 2 years I've been sure that Brexit won't happen. Somehow it would be dropped. Time would convince the public it's a bad idea and there would be no backlash when it was dropped.
I agree, May won't survive. I see a vote of no confidence. Rees-Mogg will put his name forward but pull out I think he prefers being King-maker. The suprise I see is Gavin Williamson the Defence secretary. If he's not PM when May goes he eventually will be.
When the Scottish Independence referendum took place in 2014 my first thought was No but Yes. Now I'm sure Scotland will achieve Independence but Brexit will cause it. The differences in political thinking and attitudes north and south of the border will widen.
At the moment it's such a mess. I'm always being tempted to read the news to justify my visions, but like Trump in the US there is so much back-stabbing and things going on behind the scenes that you will never be sure of the outcome.
I think May has strengthened her position, she's ousted two of the main hard line brexiters and replaced them with loyal supporters.
May can now push ahead with her soft Brexit which will be even softer after the EU waters down the proposal to the point where it's almost the same as staying in the EU except without any voting power. This takes the wind out of the SNPs calls for a second Scottish independence referendum and keeps northern Ireland close to the UK.
Boris Johnson will never be Prime Minister as he showed himself up as a fool of a foreign secretary. His career as an MP may be over as I can't imagine him coping on the back benches. Maybe he will go into journalism.
I can't imagine Gove as Prime Minister, he's too feeble and loyal to May, May's keeping him there as he's a brexiteer but he's easy to control. There's only around 80 brexiteers in the Tory party, the other 236 are more pro-eu, so it's unlikely a brexiteer will be voted in as Prime Minister.
If there is a leadership contest there would probably need to be another general election shortly afterwards to be viewed as legitimate. A general election and a second referendum won't happen because they are just too risky after the Tories almost lost the last general election, better to cling on to power as they are.
The brexiteers could push the nuclear button and trigger a leadership contest but this would send the Tory party into complete and utter self destruct mode. Plus it's likely TM will win this contest anyway.
May will step down before the 2022 general election but Brexit would be all done and dusted by then.
The brexiteers that voted Tory in the hope of a hard brexit will be pissed off and won't vote Tory again.
If there's a financial crash between now and 2022 the Tory party are finished.
Stu, leadership contests in Britain don't have to lead to general elections to be seen as legitimate. In Britain you vote for the party, not the leader. May didn't call for snap elections because there was a question about her legitimacy, she did because she foolishly thought she'd get a lot more seats for the Tories (dead wrong about that) and that she could keep the Tories in place till Brexit was completed, done and dusted.
I don't see the Tories accepting a much softer Brexit than what is now on the table. If you look at their actions, rather than their words, it's fairly clear that many support it more strongly than they admit in public. If there was such an overwhelming support for remaining among them as you are saying, it's very hard to explain why Cameron's case for remaining was so half-hearted, and even why he set up a referendum in the first place. If there were so few brexiteers, he could have got away with breaking his promise to do a referendum.
they don't have to call a general election after changing the leader, but I don't think the public would ever fully accept a change of leader without putting them through a general election first. The public don't like to have leaders forced on them. If the Tories want to win the next general election it wouldn't be a good idea to have a prime minister in place for 4 years that the general public haven't chosen. The public may be able to cope with a new leader for a year while they settle into the job but anything beyond a year would be a problem.
any brexit deal will need to be approved by the house of commons. A hard brexit won't be approved. The only other option is a super soft brexit which could be passed with the help of the opposition parties. This is why Theresa May is already courting the opposition parties trying to win support for her plan because she doesn't have the support within her own party.
Can anyone shed light on what Corbyn’s strategy is? He’s remarkably quiet on Brexit and the Vote Leave law-breaking. Is he hoping the government fully implode and a General Election is called? I sincerely hope this is the likely outcome, it looks very bad right now.
He's sitting back watching what's happening. He's funnily enough in the same position as May, he has MPs in his party who are Brexiteers and there are Labour constituencies that voted Leave. The feeling I'm getting is that he doesn't really want a GE before Brexit. If Labour form a government he's going to have to juggle the same balls as May. And I think his guilty secret is he wants out of the EU too.
Celticwitch has described Corbyn's position to a dot.
About leaving the UK, that's obviously a very personal question depending on your personal circumstances. I'd say, if you have ties to another country and you are comfortable going there, you probably should think about it. Things can get pretty messy in the UK. That assumes, of course, that the other country is in a better position. Leaving the UK to go to, say, Spain or Italy, may not be such a brilliant move.
If you don't have ties outside the UK, that probably reduces your options to English-speaking countries. Some of them, again, don't look like they are in a better situation than the UK. So your choices are pretty limited, and also depend on where your income comes from. If you are retired, you can probably get your pension pretty much in any English-speaking country. If not, moving would probably be rather more complicated.