I’m not sure if this is an intuition or prediction or a feeling, but it keeps nagging at me.
Regarding these polls that have been lopsided for Biden, what if Trump supporters are telling pollsters that they are pro-Biden, but they really aren’t? Sort of like the big psych that the TikTok and K-Pop Stans pulled off behind the scenes for the Tulsa rally?
I want so badly for Biden to win but I’m feeling that mischief is going on with the polling. ?
While this seems like we are in a scary movie sequel (we are running from the killer and somehow twist our ankle, allowing him to catch us), the situation today is vastly different from 2016.
First of all, the Democrats are not as divided as they were in 2016. There was a lot of lingering hard feelings between Hillary and Sanders. This is not the case today. While both sides still has issues with one another, our hatred against Trump unites us.
Second, Republicans are having a much more difficult time connecting Biden to a scandal than they did with Hillary. Remember, they went on for years about Hillary's emails and Benghazi. But Biden? What can they say against him?
(1) Biden is old and not-all-there in the head. (Uh, yeah? Because Trump is only a few years younger and can't climb down a ramp on his own? Plus, you had Reagan when he wasn't "all there." So good luck with that!)
(2) Biden's son and Ukraine. (No doubt this was Trump's plan to hurt Biden before the impeachment trial. However, despite Democrat's failed efforts to convict Trump, the impeachment had a very positive affect in that it got the story out on the Democrats' terms. If Trump would have had his way, Ukraine would have announced a fake investigation against Biden's son, and Fox News would have a field day. But if it happens now? Most people will already see it for what it really it and will ignore it. Further, if any other country comes out with any scandal against Biden (China, Russia, etc.), then it will likely be ignored because Trump's own dealings are much, much worse.)
(3) The state of the country-During Biden's eight years as VP, he watch the economy come back from the 2008 recession and watched a breakout of the swine flu that killed a few thousand world wide.
Trump? We are in a recession where we are seeing unemployment at records not seen since the Great Depression. Covid-19? 130,000 plus dead in the US alone. And that has only been since March.
Basically, the country's situation is much different. in 2016, we had a stable economy and a greater than average portion of our population who was tired of the usual way of politics and wanted to shake up the system.
Fast forward to 2020. The country is in a recession. Millions are sick and dying. The mood of our country is horrible.
Voters in this situation tend to vote for the one who is stable. They want order and stability, not change and chaos.
(4) Trump himself. Enough said. While the numbers in 2016 is similar to the polling we see today, there are two things to consider.
First, after just two years of Trump, the white suburbs revolted and gave the House to Democrats. While we had anxiety then too, remember that most polls showed that Democrats would get around 38 House Seats. They got 40.
This was supposed to be a wake-up call to Republicans. The suburbs was giving them a message-keep Trump under control and make him act Presidential, or we will vote you out.
They didn't listen. They made up excuses as to why they lost. They enabled Trump more.
The suburbs have not shown any signs of backing down. And when Trump forces red states to reopen faster than was safe (something that is now being done with the schools), how do you think those suburban mothers are going to feel about their children being sent into danger?
They already hated him before he threatened the lives of their children. Imagine what will happen how.
Further, Trump has angered school teachers with his little stunt this week. The Kentucky governor showed the same contempt for Kentucky teachers and their concerns a few years ago, and then he got voted out in 2018.
Do not underestimate the power of the teachers and the suburbs. They have far more power than Trump and the Republicans realize.
Second, remember that while most people did not like Trump in 2016, they still didn't really know him. They bought into his argument that he would run the country and make it successful. They believed that his tactics in the election would disappear and he would act more presidential.
And now? Thousand dead. The country in financial ruin. The racial divisions set to a boiling point. And in a matter of weeks, there will be a massive dying off of Republican voters in red states.
(This is not what I am hoping for. It is simply a fact. The red states didn't heed the warnings from New York and the blue states. Now the number of Covid 19 cases are spiking in similar ways as they did in New York. If we follow the New York pattern, then we will start seeing hospital overcrowding, massive deaths, and overfilled morgues in red states very soon. And while it is one thing to see it on TV and laugh at the "liberal" states, it is quite another to see it happen in your own hometown and see your pro-Trump neighbors die in mass numbers.)
Basically, while many voters may not be excited about Biden, many have an actual reason to hate and/or fear Trump now. And that fear and hatred is such that it will overcome any lingering doubts for those who are choosing to vote for Biden.
Finally, there is an actual sense that if Trump wins this time, then the country will likely go to an unofficial war. in 2016, Trump and his allies threated to take it to the streets if he lost and started stirring doubt as to the election results. They knew they could get away with this because they believed that Democrats, shackled by their beliefs of civility and trust in the process, would allow them free reign.
Not so anymore. It is one thing to rile against the establishment. It is quite another to complain when you basically are the establishment. Further, certain Democrats and Never Trumpers have made it clear that they too would take it to the streets if Trump won. Further, Republicans who hate the left are now afraid. They no longer view liberals as weak opponents that need to be put in their place, but an angry mob that may very well turn dangerous if they are pushed too far. Further, based on the large number of protesters after the George Floyd killing and then the terrible debacle of Trump's Tulsa rally, Republicans are left with the impression that if the two side do decide to have war with one another, the number of those willing to use violence on the liberal side is far, far higher than the number of those willing to use violence on the conservative side.
I know for a fact that many Republicans are now truly afraid of the left and fear that if they become too vocal, they may face retaliation. But it is one thing to fear the left who are basically nameless to the Republicans. It is quite another to have Trump as the rallying signal to fight against when you are a Democrat.
In short, Trump's actions have caused Democrats' anger to rise to the point that Republicans no longer think that they are safe. They know that if they cheat to win again, Democrats aren't going to shrug and say "let's wait four more years." They know that if some of them show up to polling booths with their guns, Democrats will not be scared off and will likely bring some of their own guns to intimidate them.
In short, the Democrats fear Republican reprisal far less than they do four more years of Trump. And this is another difference that will result in a better outcome for 2020.
So don't look back at 2016. Look towards 2018. That year, the polls were wrong too, as they underestimated the number of states Democrats took over. Don't let Republicans discourage you from voting and kicking them and Trump out of the capitol (and hopefully the country) for good.
You make sound, solid arguments. Thank you for your response to my nagging anxiety! I hope and pray you are right.
@lowtide Remember also that Hillary did win the popular vote. Actually I think everyone should say Trump is winning so people will flock to the polls to get rid of him. A lot of people thought Trump wouldn't win so they didn't bother to vote.
Tonight a friend sent me a video from Florida that was appalling. A large meeting of people saying that God gave us breath, and the devil will punish anyone wearing masks. It was very threatening and very sincere. I have to say in a time of terrifying visions and news, this took the cake.
We just moved to Florida a year ago. More than once, I have thought, “What have we done????” It is very discouraging living in a deep red state as we are both flaming liberals. Some of my very sick patients in their hospital beds and my young coworkers want to talk their Trump politics!! Fox News on everywhere! Covid is not the only infection down here!
Lara Trump just said the more unrest, the better for Trump. So get ready. I just read about Portland and I'm sick to my stomach. I tried to express my fear to my sisters, but as usual, they ignored me.
Tucker Carlson said that child shooter is a hero? Ann Coulter, that walking horror, thinks he should be President.
I'm terrified, and I don't understand why someone somewhere can't do something.