[Closed] Atlantic Hurricane Season

@cindy 

I'm pretty keyed up lately whenever there's severe weather around. Today, based on the pleasant, sunny conditions, you wouldn't even know that a lethal storm system had just passed through.

I didn't have an immediate reaction to Larry based on the name. But its genesis as a Cape Verde hurricane is a red flag to me, since it has a lot of time and space to strengthen before it reaches the Caribbean/North America (if that should come to pass).

@Avon  @cindy and everyone else,

I had written for the Hurricane predictions that I felt Larry might be in the Caribbean. I don't see any other posts mentioning Larry.  

We do have many posts however that mention states or regions that will get hit. You might want to review what has been predicted if you are worried about a particular area in general.  

If you live in a potential hurricane area, you really need to have a plan NOW.  Don't wait to get your supplies, put your plan in place now.  Fill up your car well ahead of time.  Pack your escape bag and identify items which have meaning now. Have your important record. Back up all your important photos on a cloud you can easily access.   If you leave, be prepared for an extended time away.  If you stay be prepared to be on your own with no outside resources, no food or water for MANY days. Plan for much more water and food than you think because your neighbors will not plan as well as you and you might need to share.  I speak from experience after the Northridge Earthquake and with what my daughter went through for the great freeze in Texas this year.  While you might be prepared, those around you might not. 

If you are fortunate and your home escapes damage, you may be the beacon of light for your extended family or friends who might not be as fortunate.  Again, planning on MORE water, food and supplies than you think you need would be a serious consideration.  Again, I speak with prior experience on this issue.

Do you have an alternative power source?

The way these storms have been acting, if you don't reside  in a state on the coast but could get the remnants of a storm, be prepared for really bad flooding in places which don't normally flood. So many states are talking about "unprecedented " water events.  Expect that to be true in your area too.  Ground is already saturated in much of New England, the Northeast, the Gulf Coast and south.  A small water producing storm will be a challenge.

Also remember, just because a storm might be "only" a tropical storm or depression doesn't mean you escape being negatively impacted.  

Most of you all know this already.  But if what many of us have "seen" happens this hurricane season, we ain't seen nothing yet folks.  

@michele-b might have something she can add.  She unexpectedly housed many family and friends who suddenly needed to evacuate their homes during a major wildfire.

This is an interesting website which will give you a "Flood Factor" (risk factor) for your address.  https://floodfactor.com/about

I checked out a few addresses on it (places I know that flood and places that don't) and it seems to be much more accurate than FEMA flood maps which, as the site says, do not get down to the house-by-house level and are often outdated. 

@coyote, @lovendures, thanks for the replies. I had read thru previous predictions & nothing about Larry jumped out at me. I am trying to sort out what I've been picking up on. When I see the projected path I'm getting that it's not accurate yet. Whether that means greater or reduced chances of landfall & damages I'm not sure. The sense of foreboding that I'm trying to place comes from the fact that the name Larry has come up in unpleasant ways for me just recently, so I was looking for input to sort out whether my kneejerk reaction was just to the name itself, or to the storm.

The latest forecasts for Larry have it taking a similar path as Henri. It will turn north somewhere around Bermuda and miss the Southeastern states. However, it's still unclear what it does around Bermuda if it keeps turning or heads to the Northeast. Let's hope it keeps turning, who knew the NE would be so battered this season!!

@Avon Being in the Northeast, I can't click "like" but thank you for posting this news. 

@avon 

It doesn't look promising for Bermuda at the moment. Things can and do change.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/144937.shtml?tswind120#contents

Surprise!

Mindy just popped up as a T.S. and is already at the Florida Panhandle area where a TS warning is occurring.  Flooding and heavy rain is expected til Thursday throughout  the Panhandle, Georgia and S. Carolina as it travels across those states.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents  

Mindy's moving fast-  So fast that she's not dumping excessive rain in any one place.  I'm near the track-- it rained hard for a little while overnight but we get that in summer thunderstorms all the time.  

Mindy's gone and Larry is taking a late-summer vacation to Greenland. 

Next up are Nicholas and the dreaded (according to predictions) Odette.

Currently there are two disturbances out there likely to become named storms. 

One is on the coast of Belize and the other is on the coast of West Africa. 

Which one (if either) will become Odette?   I got a hint that it's the one off Africa but I'm not great at this.

Anyone else have any inklings?

@ana 

We also need to look at Peter.  Many also saw Peter being a big storm, perhaps piggy-backing or coming on the heels of Odette.  I hope we are wrong about Odette.  I know there is more coming,  we are barley halfway through the season.

Some us saw later fall storms.  So that might mean a hurricane name we didn't even think about when we tried to read the hurricanes.

This year instead of using a Greek Alphabet, they will be using a list of new names in case we  need it.  At the rate we are currently going through names, I think we will need it.  Here is the secondary list in case anyone wants to meditate on it.

1. Adria
2. Braylen
3. Caridad
4. Deshawn
5. Emery
6. Foster
7. Gemma
8. Heath
9. Isla
10. Jacobus
11. Kenzie
12. Lucio
13. Makayla
14. Nolan
15. Orlanda
16. Pax
17. Ronin
18. Sophie
19. Tayshaun
20. Viviana

@lovendures 

I’m getting resonance from Braylen. Let’s not forget that last year, Hurricane Iota achieved category 4 status in mid-November. So even the late season storms can pack a punch.

My local forecaster talked about the storm development in the gulf. Most likely to become Nicholas over the next day or two. Based on the path, I think this may be the Galveston storm @baba predicted as it's supposed to hit around the Texas & Louisiana border next weekend.

https://www.witn.com/2021/09/12/tracking-next-tropical-system-gulf-mexico/

@ana   When I read your remarks.. I heard "Odette is Opal's cousin"... and will  most likely travel from off the coast of Africa like Opal did. I remember how hard Opal hit my area.... with high winds, rain blowing sideways, causing a lot of trees to fall and lots of localized flooding where I was in NW Ga.  I remember I put our pet goat in the bathroom and bath tub to keep him safe as he was only about 9 months old, and he ate bar soap and chewed up the shower curtain and generally mad a mess. The next morning some of the huge roots of my old pecan trees were pulling up from the depths of the ground.. roots as big around as my thighs together. I remember gathering stones to weigh those roots back down in to the ground and it worked! Of course... it was just a few and those trees were so old that as big as what you could see above ground was...it only 1/3 of the root systems volume underground. I was going through a nasty divorce at the time. I remember telling my trees...we didn't expect this did we...but.. not gonna let it kill us.... no one to help? That's ok.. we got this... and somehow? We did. I really hated that I had to sell off my dream home (remodeled 1930's farmhouse and 25 acres with pecan,walnut,black walnut,peach,pear,apple trees and lots of blackberry, dewberry bushes , muscadine and scuppernong and wild concord grape vines, as well as a prime garden spot and hen house and pen and lush pasture.  I had beautiful heirloom flowers as well..roses,lilacs,4 o'clocks, rose of sharon, snowball bush and more. It really was my dream home and where I also started living my dream of being a veterinary technician. I have come to love and appreciate this place I am in now...but... that home? Will always hold my heart... I put such deep roots down in that place and community. It was devastating to have to leave the life I had built when the ex's perfidy and double life came to light. I know, I know.. TMI... and got wound off track.. the point WAS: "Opal was a very nasty mean girl and Odette is her cousin"

Say Hello to Nicholas!

T.S. Nicholas is off of Mexico heading n towards Texas.   Looks like a good rain event for Texas and LA. Please pay attention if Nicholas is headed to your area.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/174537.shtml?tswind120#contents

Regarding Odette.

IF Odette ends up being a big storm, then she is next.  Well she is next if she is tiny too I guess.  haha.  Peter is also seen as being large by some.  I hope Odette is NOT large or strong.  It is possible Odette is important because she ushers in the back to back ( perhaps back again) storms.  The best thing that can happen with Odette is that we wait and watch and in the end say: " We were worried about that??!?! Odette was a nothing burger".  

Hoping the O in Odette means NOTHING! Zero!

Keep your eye on Nicholas if you are in his area forecast zone.

Posted by: @journeywithme2

... my dream home (remodeled 1930's farmhouse and 25 acres with pecan,walnut,black walnut,peach,pear,apple trees and lots of blackberry, dewberry bushes , muscadine and scuppernong and wild concord grape vines, as well as a prime garden spot and hen house and pen and lush pasture.  I had beautiful heirloom flowers as well..roses,lilacs,4 o'clocks, rose of sharon, snowball bush and more. It really was my dream home and where I also started living my dream of being a veterinary technician. 

Oh my god. OMG! Well, I am glad you had a place like that and I got to read about it. And am glad you work with animals. What a treasure you'd lived. 

Posted by: @ana

Currently there are two disturbances out there likely to become named storms. 

One is on the coast of Belize and the other is on the coast of West Africa. 

 

Which one (if either) will become Odette?   

And the answer is: neither.

The one that was in Central America is now TS Nicholas and the one off Africa fizzled out and disippated.

@ana I get a bad feeling about fall hurricanes and COVID peaking at the same time this year. 

@jeanne-mayell   Only 6 years there before the dream fell apart- chose the wrong spouse once more... or the right one for lessons I had still to learn. Either way the property had to be divided and my portion sold as he and she moved in to the other house on the property we had made for his parents... and living next door to them and their anger and determination to make my life hell forever made me say .. tear these roots up and move. Oddly enough, after joining ancestry, I found I moved to where my great-great grandfather and grandmother lived at the end of the Civil War. Also found GGG's grave headstone as well as the children who died along with her in the great Flu Pandemic. Which I find a bit ironic.. being in the same county/area in this Pandemic.

@ana I am not wedded to the names of the hurricanes in my own predictions. The name Odette is a big robust and imposting name, so that might be why it came through to me and others as a big storm, when it might not be.

But my intuition doesn't usually happen around names. During that RTF night in June, we just tried as an experiment to see what we might get by name. Since I have never done predictions that way, nor have the others, we won't know if it works until the season is over.

The most reliable way I've found to help a wide range of people to read the future is the timeline method that I use on RTF nights. We used that method too in June, and I did see a large hurricane that was on both Florida coasts, perhaps in South Florida. I don't know what its name is. I hope it doesn't happen.