My final thoughts on the matter of Trump and this search warrant.
If Trump gets indicted (regardless of whether it happens before or after the midterms), will DeSantis keep law enforcement from arresting Trump?
I don't know if there are any Floridians on this site, so I am interested in your thoughts. DeSantis seems to be extremely popular with the state, despite his actions (seriously, who attacks Disney, of all groups). But if Trump is indicted, will DeSantis try to use his power to keep Trump from getting booked at the local jail?
No doubt Trump will paint it as a feds v. Trump matter if the Justice Department goes after him. But what if Georgia does something? You really can't say that neighboring Georgia is the federal government. And that sets up a confrontation between DeSantis and whoever becomes the Governor of Georgia if and when Georgia indicts Trump. If it is Kemp, then Kemp has to go against the MAGA crowd to try to arrest Trump. On the other hand, if Kemp doesn't try to enforce the warrant against Trump, then law enforcement in Georgia will believe he is weak and won't support them. (It is a power thing. If Kemp keeps Fulton County from indicting and arresting Trump, then this example can be used to stop law enforcement from executing their duties in other cases. In essence, if Kemp refuses to enforce the arrest warrant, he takes power away from law enforcement period.)
If, God willing, Stacy Abrams pulls an upset and wins Georgia, then I do not doubt that she would be more than happy to enforce an arrest warrant for Trump in Florida, which would set off a battle between Georgia and Florida that would be more continuous than any SEC football game.
Personally, I think we need to keep our eyes on Georgia if there is a chance of anyone indicting Trump before the midterms. The DA in Fulton County has the least to lose politically, as she is not up for re-election and is in a Democratic area (Atlanta). Yes, I am aware that several Republicans are trying to launch a recall vote, but I doubt it will work well for them and just cost them money (California ring any bells?) Kemp is really powerless to stop her from indicting Trump, and any efforts he tries will be seen as government overreach by his voters (also, I think Kemp hates Trump personally).
If political timing comes into play, I would be on the lookout for late September to early October. If Georgia does indict Trump and want to have the maximum impact of the midterm elections, that is when it should happen. This will cause Kemp to choose between his duties as governor and keeping MAGA happy. Either way will cost him votes and may gain an opening for Abrams. Also, the MAGA crowd will peddle their lies and conspiracies before early voting begins. While MAGA supporters come out in droves, this may scare away any Republican leaning voters who are already uncomfortable with Trump and his goons.
And let's not forget Roe v. Wade. I think Kansas is not a one-time event. I think many women and fair-minded voters are waiting in the wings to punish Republicans for trying to turn America into Gilead (I notice with amusement that "Handmaid's Tale" Season 5 comes out on September 14, 2022, just in time for the election season and to remind women everywhere about what happens when a country takes away your rights.)
So, as I said before, while justice is supposed to be blind, it can also be a tool in the game of politics, so long as you time everything wisely. So to those who think that justice will never find Trump and his cronies will never learn the meaning of how orange is the new black, remember this; the goal of justice is not only about punishing the offenders, but to ensure that they and others can never harm others again. So while I would love for Trump to be behind bars, I would gladly settle for him and other MAGA figures to be thrown out of power and kept out. I think Garland and others involved in these investigations know this and are determined to stop Trump and his movement politically before going after him criminally. It is when Trump and his allies are in power is when they do the most damage. By keeping them out of power, we are saving the country. And I think that Trump will eventually be imprisoned somehow, even if it is not physically. If he is kept away from the adulation of his base and labeled a "loser" or even "irrelevant," I think he will mentally tear himself apart. I truly believe this.
I am assuming you are referring to the "Plain Sight Doctrine." Say, for example, a cop pulls someone over for a busted taillight, but as he comes over to the driver's window, he sees a dead body in the backseat and the driver is covered in blood.
Any law enforcement officer worth his salt is unlikely to ignore the obvious murder scene, give the driver a ticket, and send him on his merry way.
Likewise, if an officer executes a search warrant for a computer suspected of being used for child pornography seizes the computer but, while searching for the computer, finds young children chained up in a basement, he is allowed to "seize" evidence of any crime committed there, even if it is not a crime alleged in the warrant.
There are limits, of course. A warrant for Trump's texts messages does not allow the FBI to come into Mar-a-Lago and seize the phones of all employees and guests there. However, if one of those guests is seen smoking cocaine in the corner when the FBI arises, that guest can be arrests accordingly, even if it was not covered under the search warrant.
I hope that helps?
But if Republicans gain control of the House (which they are likely to do),
I don't think I would be so confident of that. There is still much to come before November. I suspect it might be a nail-biter, yes, but I also expect that the D's will retain a majority, however slim it may be.
But if Trump is indicted, will DeSantis try to use his power to keep Trump from getting booked at the local jail?
I mean no offense, but these are major federal charges, not speeding tickets or public intoxication ordinances, so there's no way he's going to be "booked in the county jail". TFG would be taken to the nearest federal facility for any processing necessary. In addition, because it is literally a federal case , the FBI and DOJ have superseding authority, and DeSantis has no power to stand in their way. If he tried, he could and would (rightly) be charged with obstruction of justice and interference with federal law enforcement. Remember, this is a man who has his eye on the big chair, so I can't see him trying to stop it in any way. More likely, he would use it as campaign messaging somehow "The federal gov't is too powerful! Elect me, and I'll cut their power and return it to the states!" (he can't, but the MAGA morons would eat that up.)
Once TFG is in federal custody, DeSantis is out of the picture with regard to Georgia, and if the GA court system indicts TFG there, they would simply have to approach the feds about it. If TFG is in federal hands, it's unlikely GA will be able to proceed with their case unless and until the DOJ case is fully adjudicated, and then TFG could be taken to GA for the case there.
While Fulton County is obviously in GA, Kemp has no authority as Governor to interfere in a case brought by that county under the auspices of GA state law. Remember, as Governor, he is charged with enforcing state laws. In addition, the duly elected Sheriff of Fulton County is - like the POTUS and the Governor - the highest elected official entrusted to see that the laws of that county are fully and faithfully executed and enforced and literally has more power within the boundaries of that county than the Governor or even the POTUS. That is Constitutional fact. If the Sheriff there tells Kemp and his minions to take a hike out of his county, they are obliged to comply with that order, and if they don't, they can be charged with obstruction and/or interference as well.
If the feds don't have TFG in custody at the time that GA moves on its case and DeSantis tries to refuse, the Fulton County DA can sue Florida and force the issue. Since the dispute is between states, SCOTUS could be the Court of First Instance (it would more likely be the southern Circuit first, but going to SCOTUS first could happen), in which event the precedents are pretty clear-cut, and GA would win handily.
I reread my post and I realized that I forgot to make an important distinction. You are right on absolutely every point. But I was trying to frame the narrative from MAGAs point of view. I should have pointed that out from the beginning.
Remember when Trump tried to argue that Pence had the power to overturn the election results? That is what my post was meant to mean. Trump and DeSantis will try to frame the dialogue in such a way to where they think they have power they actually don't. If, as you mentioned, the feds enforced the warrant, DeSantis will likely still try to pull something so he looks good in front of the MAGA crowd.
I know you probably think I am crazy, but I am willing to bet that DeSantis will do something stupid like prevent agents from arresting Trump in a stupid show of illegality, just as they did on January 6, 2021. Anything to own the libs.
I know you probably think I am crazy, but I am willing to bet that DeSantis will do something stupid like prevent agents from arresting Trump in a stupid show of illegality, just as they did on January 6, 2021. Anything to own the libs.
Given that he's probably going to be a candidate in 2024, I can't see him doing anything to actually try to stop it, even as a stunt. If he wants any support from non-Trump R's or *any* D's, he can't be seen to be essentially committing federal crimes. I think the most he would do is apply non-stop lies, rhetoric, and sound-bites expressing his "outrage" and grifting for campaign donations on the back of it.
TFG is going to skip the country isn't he? Somebody said Greece, I get the feeling that the plane is getting ready, soon.
Well, that was another vision I'd had back in 2017-- the Trump family high above the ocean in some cliff estate. It reminded of Greece.