@jeanne-mayell , you are spot-on in your analysis.
As a legal insider (attorney), I feel pretty confident that the Supreme Court will ultimately throw the Texas abortion law out. They will drag their feet in doing so, of course (the six conservative judges will try to prolong it in order to "save" as many babies as possible, or so they say). But ultimately, they will overturn the law.
The answer is simple. If they don't, then they lose their power. After all, if all the states could pass such laws in order to avoid legal review from the Supreme Court, then all the states would do it.
Which would be great for red states in their ultimate quest to bring women down into a semi-slavery status by making them have babies and then keep them in a sense of poverty while the fathers get off without responsibility. And for the really sinister Republicans, it creates a new generation of poor, starving children for them to exploit and abuse (sorry, but there is a reason why victims of forced labor and the sex trade are often from the poorest classes).
But....then blue states can do the same thing, such as curtail guns. And God forbid that anyone take away their right to own an assault rifle.
So, the Supreme Court will ultimately overturn the law, if only so that they continue to maintain their power over the country. So ultimately their greed will win out.
Thank you both! This helps a lot! ...And it makes sense. As a lurker who has been here for a while, Jeanne, you are one of the most on point. But to everyone here, what many of you receive from spirit here gives me hope.
Yesterday's oral arguments on the vaccine mandate challenge have left me bummed out. The right wing justices are just plain bonkers. Gorsuch won't wear a mask and claimed hundreds out thousands of people die every year from the flu (not true). Poor Sotomayor, who is 65 and has diabetes, had to participate via video because Gorsuch wouldn't near an effing mask. Some of the comments and questions just sounded like listening to Hannity or Tucker Carlson. It was depressing, but also terrifying, inasmuch as this is how it's going to be for as long as the right wing has a stranglehold on the court. They are going to legislate from the bench and basically prevent the federal government from doing things it needs to do, unless of course it involves something they want to gov't to do, like ban muslims from entering the US or force women to bear children against their will.
Last year I posted that I thought Breyer would outlast some of the other justices, but now I'm feeling like he will announce his retirement after this term is over. I think he (and Kagan and Sotomayor) realize how extreme the court has gotten, and how divided. I don't think he wants to risk making it any more unbalanced. I think Biden will choose Ketanji Brown Jackson to replace him. None of this is a major prediction. I think a lot of people are thinking the same thing.
However, I still do feel some of the other justices leaving, for reasons other than retirement. I feel that Thomas and/or Alito will leave, but I don't know if this is just wishful thinking on my part of because I loathe those two, or something else. Anyone else getting a read on this?
@lynnventura, I similarly feel that Breyer will retire when the term is over and Judge Jackson will be the nominee and that he'd only get 1 or 2 Republicans to vote her on the court. There is a prediction from @Bluebelle for a vacancy in February and one by @Deetoo for a fight over it in March, so Breyer's announcement could happen sooner. I also feel that Biden would have more than one justice he'd appoint before the 2024 election (it felt like he'd nominate another woman). I am unsure whether it's Alito or Thomas who would retire.
As far as the mandates go from the oral arguments yesterday, the general consensus among legal experts is that the court will uphold the healthcare mandate, but not the workplace one. I do feel that there is a conservative justice (not Chief Justice Roberts) who keeps vacillating between upholding both mandates or going along with their conservative colleagues, so I am uncertain on how things will ultimately shake out. Is anyone else getting a sense of how this will go?
@spiritman @lynnventura. Ever since I heard the line of questioning from the conservatives justices, I have a sense of dread about this upcoming Supreme Court decision on vaccine mandates. Sigh. It boggles the mind that the Supreme Court might weigh in with a decision making it more difficult to end the pandemic. As to whether another justice may depart the court in addition to Breyer, well, that resonates with me. Clarence Thomas’ wife Ginni was a vocal supporter of the infamous Stop the Steal rally that led to the insurrection, but it remains to be seen if she actually funded that effort. As for Brett Kavanaugh, well, who paid off Kavanaugh’s $1.2 million mortgage and massive credit card debt before his confirmation? And did he perjure himself during confirmation hearings with the Senate Judiciary Committee?
Last year I dreamed about walking in a large public garden where there was a massive stone bench (a bench scaled for giants). The seat of this massive bench was starting to tip forward and the foundation in front appeared to be sinking into the earth. It was lopsided. People walked past this massive bench and no one paid much attention to it, indicating to me that it had been there a long time. However, as the granddaughter and great granddaughter of stonemasons, I kept looking at the bench, trying to figure out what was wrong with it and how it should be fixed.
My feeling is that this was a premonition dream about our lopsided Supreme Court and the structural changes that need to be made in order to preserve the integrity of the institution and our nation.
My intuitive sense is that there will be a number of Supreme Court decisions that will not reflect the will of the majority of Americans and this will cause a backlash against the Supreme Court. This change in public opinion about the Supreme Court will lead to public support for structural changes.
@bluebelle So interesting. "Bench" is how lawyers (and others) refer to where the judge sits. Like, "is the judge on the bench yet?" A massive bench would definitely make sense because Scotus is the most massive of all the courts. The stone part, to me, says that it is an integral part of our society, strong and hard to break.
I too feel that they will issue several really bad decisions, because at this point they are very much like the extremist elements of the GOP; they're feeling powerful, without humility or the need to compromise. How much damage they do before they're reigned in really concerns me. The right wing is cultivating lawsuits they can take to Scotus in order to effectively secure changes in the law they can't get legislatively. Sure, dems have done this in the past as well, but mainly to expand rights, not to eliminate them. The current majority is all to willing to hear such cases and make drastic changes. It's all part of the plan. They are all Federalist Society babies, and this was the plan all along. This is the culmination of 40+ years of work, and they aren't going to waste time. They know majorities don't last but rulings often do, for generations even. They're all participants in what's been a legal conspiracy to move the country rightward, by judicial fiat.
Alito, Thomas, Barrett, Kavanaugh and Roberts are extreme in the descending order in which I've listed them. They are rigid ideologues who believe the federal gov't should not be able to do much of anything, without understanding that you can't have a coherent country without the ability to have laws that apply to everyone. Their "kick it back to the states" philosophy (when it suits them) is no way to govern a country. I really fear what's coming, but I agree that the more hubris they display the easier it will be to build public support to reign them in.
@lynnventura @bluebelle I threw some cards on the future of the Supreme Court. I got what appeared to be three more years of rigid, consolidated conservative power, then a shift in 2025. The 2025 card was a three of cups, abundance, which could mean that either they expand the number of justices, or they change the term rules limiting the time a justice can serve.
@jeanne-mayell Thanks, Jeanne. It’s going to be tough watching this far right leaning court make decisions that affect our country.
@bluebelle Only the Congress can expand the Supreme Court. While there hasn't been enough will among Democrats to do it, that could change in three years of rolling back our democracy 80 years.
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas is currently hospitalized and receiving intravenous antibiotics for an infection. He has been in the hospital since Friday and is improving.