Random predictions
 
Notifications
Clear all

[Closed] Random predictions

(@teriz)
Reputable Member
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 39
 

Melania kind of fascinates me. I can't tell if she's a victim, perpetrator, or just lost. My guess is all of that and more. I would think it would be worse without her. She seems to settle him somewhat. I hope she can grow and find happiness after all this. I hope it's not on the arm of an Oligarch. That's just a weird feeling I get with her.



   
Jeanne Mayell, Lenor, TriciaCT and 17 people reacted
(@vestralux)
Illustrious Member
Joined: 8 years ago
Posts: 568
 

@baba

Thank you for sharing this, Baba!  ?

I find it interesting that Ring Around the Rosie is purported by some medieval history scholars to have origins from the time of the Black Death in Europe. Dr. Dorsey Armstrong, Professor of English and Medieval Literature at Purdue University, teaches extensively on that pandemic and explains the lyrics this way:

  • "Ring around the rosie" referred to a circular rash that appeared around the swollen lymph nodes (or buboes) which were a symptom of the disease in the bubonic form (~18 - 20% survival rate), or on its own in the pneumonic form (~0% survival rate)
  • "Pocket full of posies" referred to the practice of carrying sweet smelling flowers and herbs to hold under the nose, or stuffed into the beaks of plague masks, as it was widely believed then that disease was spread by foul smelling air, or miasma
  • "We all fall down" is self-explanatory; the plague was lethal within days, and sometimes only hours, and is estimated to have wiped out half the population in parts of Europe

We're currently in another pandemic and at least Trump and Bolsonaro are responsible for many times more deaths than there otherwise would have been. Bibi is similarly embroiled in scandal and death (West Bank lives matter). 

But another interesting point Armstrong makes in her lectures (I listened to a series of 50 that she made on the subject in 2016), is that the colossal failures by leaders during the Black Death, and its terrible mortality rate, created a civilizational moment in which those at the bottom of society—90% of the people were peasant laborers with no power—were able to rise up, revolt, and demand structural changes in European life. And they got it. In many places, after the plague swept through, laborers attained the right to representation by guilds or other privileges theretofore unheard of in the previously feudal society.  

I'm not making the point that our present pandemic is a good thing; only that history repeats. And necessary change often comes on the heels of tragedy and chaos. 



   
Jeanne Mayell, Marley, villager and 37 people reacted
(@jeanne-mayell)
Illustrious Member
Joined: 9 years ago
Posts: 7257
Topic starter  

@teriz  We did a whole read on her a few years ago which you will find if you put her name in the search bar.  She's about the money.    



   
Isabelle, Lawrence, Seeker4 and 21 people reacted
(@parizienne)
Honorable Member
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 85
 

@vestralux

I teach medieval history to middle schoolers (so not on the level of the scholar you quoted). I’ve always taught that it was the plague that hobbled feudalism. I don’t recall where I learned that specifically. When your lord dies, and his sons all die then who’s going to have the power to maintain that hierarchy in a patriarchal society? The pyramid had to flatten out. I think the time span of the plague was contributory, too. It’ll be interesting to see what discussions emerge in my classes next school year around this topic and in the context of CV19. 

I need to also say say that I’ve been lurking for a while until recently,  and I always enjoy your insights. I look forward to your posts. Thank you! 



   
Lilinoe, Lovendures, seaturtle26 and 23 people reacted
(@coyote)
Illustrious Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 865
 

@parizienne @vestralux

You might be interested in this essay posted by John Feffer at Resilience.org

The Black Death Killed Feudalism. What Does COVID-19 Mean for Capitalism?

Also, Tim Morgan at the blog Surplus Energy Economics has been producing some very detailed analysis (with an emphasis on the biophysics of fossil fuels) about how COVID is already pushing us into a new economic paradigm.



   
Jeanne Mayell, villager, Goldstone and 27 people reacted
(@vestralux)
Illustrious Member
Joined: 8 years ago
Posts: 568
 
Posted by: @parizienne

When your lord dies, and his sons all die then who’s going to have the power to maintain that hierarchy in a patriarchal society? The pyramid had to flatten out. I think the time span of the plague was contributory, too. It’ll be interesting to see what discussions emerge in my classes next school year around this topic and in the context of CV19. 

Indeed. So fascinating, @parizienne.

Also fascinating that you teach medieval history to middle schoolers! And I love that you're already anticipating class discussions around Covid-19 in the fall. I keep thinking about how this period in our history is shaping the minds (and lives) of young people.

Btw, 6th, 7th, and 8th graders are probably my favorite humans. They're finally emerging—however awkwardly—into their own minds, right about the time their bodies are also (awkwardly) waking up. They're curious and quarrelsome and moody but still just enough ridiculously silly. In those ways, they're perfect expressions of everything it is to be human. Plus, they're still so wide open to everything ...in a way they never quite will be again. So, how lovely for you that you get to teach them. Thank you for doing that work.

And thank you so much for your kinds words.?

Posted by: @coyote

You might be interested in this essay posted by John Feffer at Resilience.org

I'll definitely check both of these mentions out. Thanks, @coyote

I've been thinking a lot about the ways that extractive institutions (which epitomize capitalism as we know it) are already beginning to burst. Even in the most literal sense of the fossil fuel industry, which isn't looking great in the current economic climate. And which cannot survive the ecological crisis we face. 

In the face of resistance to change, the universe will always deliver an appropriate crisis. 



   
Jeanne Mayell, Goldstone, Lilinoe and 23 people reacted
(@parizienne)
Honorable Member
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 85
 

@coyote 

Very interesting article. Thank you for linking to it. 



   
Jeanne Mayell, Coyote, FEBbby23 and 3 people reacted
 Baba
(@baba)
Illustrious Member
Joined: 8 years ago
Posts: 656
 

@Vestralux Thanks for your take on the “All fall down” prediction. It does seem like there could be a link there. @Coyote Thanks for the interesting link! I saw an article in the NYT which questions whether the pandemic could fix some of the problems for workers in America and also refers to the Black Death and the effects that it had on labor at the time: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-future-work-america.html

Since I had a Melania prediction the other day, the following article about her in today’s WaPo caught my eye: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/melania-book-art-of-her-deal-prenup-white-house/2020/06/11/ce63ec02-abec-11ea-94d2-d7bc43b26bf9_story.html

Apparently, she used her extra time in NY at the beginning of T’s presidency to renegotiate her prenup. 

I did not think that I got much today when I meditated, but when I looked back at it decided it might be worth posting:

All during the summer timeframe:

We learn something shocking about Bill Barr.

I got again that L. Graham quits politics. Something embarrassing comes out about him and he can’t deal with it.

R. Mueller gives us some important information and briefly appears in public again.

I saw the WH. The sky was dark with some red at the edges. There appears to be a trash fire on the lawn. I didn’t see any crowds around this time outside the gates.



   
Jeanne Mayell, Lilinoe, Vesta and 25 people reacted
(@laura-f)
Illustrious Member
Joined: 9 years ago
Posts: 1966
 

My thoughts on Black Plague and the fall of feudalism:

Yes - Ring Around a Rosie - always amazes me that a children's song has survived i.ntact for 700 years (although kids today really don't know it).

Yes - it certainly contributed to the societal changes that got ushered in with the Renaissance. There are, however, a few historians who see that how far feudalism fell depended largely on where you were if you were in the "Medieval 99%".

For example, it is believed that the rift in Italy between north and south (which continues to this day), had a lot to do with what the feudal lords - i.e. oligarchs - of the time did. In the north of Italy, the oligarchs incentivized workers because they acknowledged that in a smaller population, they needed to change in order for work to happen. They allowed them free rein to go where they could get work and to negotiate their salaries as they saw fit. This led to the rise of the trade guilds (what we'd call unions in modern terms). They allowed them to seek higher education. They gave the workers power to make their own choices. In contrast, the oligarchs in the south of Italy made laws that made it impossible for serfs to change jobs, to seek new jobs, to travel or move to another area (in particular they couldn't leave the south), forbade them from going to schools, and they retooled the old feudal systems of payments so that every serf was always indebted to someone in power.

Let's hope the changes that come are more like those of the Renaissance in northern Italy, and less like those of the south, or like what we see in modern Russia.



   
Jeanne Mayell, villager, TriciaCT and 21 people reacted
(@vestralux)
Illustrious Member
Joined: 8 years ago
Posts: 568
 

@laura-f

Excellent point and interesting to think about. No doubt that regressive strongholds will continue to exist in some places, just as they do in parts of the US today—or elsewhere in many places in the world.

Still, there's no disputing that the events of "The Great Mortality" (yikes) were a critical turning point and that feudalism had largely died out or been abolished in the Western world by the 17th and 18th centuries. That may seem like slow progress to our minds, but historically speaking, it's an eye-blink.

Beyond that, since the late Renaissance—and certainly since the Industrial Revolution—human progress has managed to speed up, exponentially so. Who knows what profound changes are possible now within a generation, or even a few short years, or how widespread they might grow. 



   
Jeanne Mayell, TriciaCT, Goldstone and 23 people reacted
Page 21 / 165