I have very mixed feelings this morning. I'm happy that the house flipped, but extremely disappointed that voters in my district re-elected indicted criminal Duncan Hunter, especially after he ran such a racist campaign. Of course, his trial starts next week, so there is still hope that he'll be gone before long, but it is just disheartening that so many people here would rather have an indicted criminal who has done NOTHING for our district (except steal campaign donations). Sigh.
To anyone feeling torn about last night -- last night was an immense victory for the Democrats and its impact cannot be overstated.
When it comes to advancing your side in, say, a war, it's important to realize the victory conditions and the statuses of those conditions. Sometimes what appears to be a loss can really be a win and a win can be a loss. You have major victories, minor victories, stalemates, minor defeats, and major defeats. I think it's important that we break down a few things to put them in perspective:
The main objective for both sides in this election, the target which made all the difference politically and was truly up for grabs, was control of the House. Democrats won that and they won a devastating victory. Republicans will try to downplay this by stating that it's common for the party out of power to win seats in the House during a president's first midterm and that Trump had smaller losses than Obama and Clinton. What is important to realize here is that Republicans have controlled the majority of state governments for quite some time and have gerrymandered Congressional districts in such a way that Republican wins are always going to be amplified and Democratic wins are always going to be diminished. Democrats were never going to win 60 seats like Republicans did in 2010 by sheer virtue of the fact that, for the time being, the game has been rigged to prevent that. In that context, picking up 35 seats is quite the feat.
The reason that taking control of the House is so important is that it gives Democrats the means to act as a check on Trump. They have the power of the subpoena. They can protect and advance the Mueller investigation. They can run their own investigations into every shady deed that Trump and his Republican supporters try to foist on this country. Because Trump is a criminal and he is lazy there will be no shortage of evidence to present to the American people. This will hurt Trump politically but, more importantly, assuming he does not resign it will make him an albatross around the necks of Republicans going into 2020. It was vital to Republican survival to maintain control of the House and they blew it.
On its face, the Senate appears to be a bit of a defeat for Democrats but I'd argue that it's actually a minor victory. A lot of people are upset that Democrats did not gain control of the Senate. Going into this election, however, the odds of that happening were only twelve percent. The fact of the matter is that the Democrats were defending 26 out of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs this time around and a lot of those seats were in states that supported Trump in 2016. The real story is that, in other circumstances, this actually should have been a blowout for Republicans and, if Trump was really as "secretly popular" as they claim him to be, they should have easily seized a veto-proof majority. The fact that Democrats were able to hold their losses down to about 3 or 4 seats is actually a sign that things aren't as rosy on the Republican side as Republicans want to believe. It should be added that Democrats received around 10,000,000 more votes in senate elections than Republicans did. The map in 2020 is a lot more favorable to Democrats than this one was.
A lot of people are heartbroken about Beto losing to Cruz but let's take a moment to examine that situation. O'Rourke went head-to-head in a close race in a red state against a former presidential front-runner that is well supported by the Republican base. Cruz had to pull out every dirty trick in the book and he still only won by a small margin. O'Rourke didn't win but Democrats won quite a few seats in Congress and the Texas House on his coattails. Texas should not have been that competitive in the first place and the fact that it was, again, is a minor victory for Democrats.
Florida is disheartening but I strongly suspect antics at play there and it looks like there are going to be recounts. Georgia was rigged from the outset but was still close. The key story is that Democratic turnout was huge and that solid gains were made despite having the deck stacked against them, especially in the one place that mattered much. Democrats picked up key governorships and seats in state elections which will also play to their advantage in the long run.
Democrats have momentum here. They need to investigate but they also need to put forward solid legislation to prove that they really are a party of ideas -- that legislation might not ultimately go anywhere but played right it should enable them to make a strong case to the American people in 2020. That's where the real battle is to be won.
I have to say, I feel much better today than I have in the past two years.
Re: Kim Davis - she didn't lose to a gay man, just someone else in that agency:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/politics/kim-davis-election-results.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
As for CA battle in general: Here in CA, we were trying to get rid of the "Crooked 8": Walters, Rohrabacher, Knight, Nunes*, Hunter*, Denham, Valadao, Royce, McCarthy, and also flip Issa's seat.
The good news:
Issa's seat is flipped blue. Rohrabacher appears to be out but may call for recount (<2,000 votes margin).
The bad news:
The rest are still in, by fair margins. This is not just about rural vs urban, it's about racism. There aren't that many "poor farmers" here, it's about wealthy individuals running the show. Oligarchs, if you will.
*Hopeful news: Nunes and Hunter won by large margins (more on Hunter race in another post) BUT they are going to be facing indictments and investigations, so most likely by next year this time we'll be having special elections in those districts.
And Rosieheart - I feel for you, but here's my view: Why Duncan Hunter won: Well, first of all, how many of you outside that district can name his opponent? Yeah, I thought not, that's a problem in itself. His opponent was Ammar Campa-Najjar, whose campaign slogan was "Raise the Bar with Campa-Najjar". There's the first problem - corny slogans are bad, he got bad advice on that. Second problem - his campaign was unfocused and disorganized. I did canvass for him the one day, but the process to getting to that point made it clear this was the losing side. In a nutshell it was disorganized and scattered. I couldn't even determine who was in charge, nor who to contact. Next - even the scripts for canvassers were weak. We ignored ours and went with what we know works - focus on issues, not the man. He spent way too much time explaining that he is Christian (Arabic-Mexican), that Campa is his mother's maiden name, etc. Lastly - he was largely invisible outside the district with low to no media presence and little social media push. I got more emails and crap from the Beto campaign than his by far, despite contributing $$ to both. And finally - he was the wrong candidate for such a redneck district. They could have done better and picked a woman with an anglo name that didn't require constant explanation.
I hope the CA Dems learn from this and don't gloss it over.
So it's generally hopeful overall, we at least got back the House, so let the committee hearings commence!
I just hope the current House doesn't try to ram crap through before the newbies get sworn in... (Jan 1?)
Laura, such wonderful insight about Campa- Najjar and his campaign. When Hunter is removed from office, a new opportunity will preset itself.
I believe those who ran positive and thoughtful campaigns (yet lost) will be the inspiration for others who will win.
I am generally optimistic about how last night went. However, the candidate for governor in my home state of GA is refusing to concede - with good reasons. There were many reports of problems with voting, and voter suppression over the last several weeks and a whole other group of problems on the day (not enough machines delivered, no power supplies for machines, a voting location being foreclosed on with the machines inside the building on the morning of the election, etc. As I am an overseas voter, I am only allowed to vote for federal offices. In this case, my family and I voted in the 6th district of GA. The democratic candidate there, Lucy McBath holds a small lead over Karen Handel and their race will be subject to a recount. Please send positive energy to both McBath and Stacey Abrams. It is not easy for anyone who is not one of the good old boys to win in that state. I have great hope that things are changing there - even if it is too slow for my taste!
Also, I just happened to see part of a press conference with the president. He spent most of it shouting at reporters and rambling. He looked very agitated and angry. It is really disturbing to watch.
Baba I saw that too. https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-reaction-2018/h_cd5fd5d50e0918588e1cf9dcfd12e287
He is soo mad. Someone must of told him he is in deep water now with the Democrats taking over the house. This is the happiest I have ever been since he won the election. No matter what has happened we won and it’s getting under his skin. No more free fall for him and his enablers
Thank you, Matt and Laura, for your pep talk. The fact that the races for Gilliam, Beto, and Abrams were as close as they are in three southern states with all the reports of shenanigans is amazing. These great candidates aren't going anywhere.
I am going to date myself here. There was a song when I was a little kid by Lynn Anderson called Rose Garden that has been stuck in my head for two weeks.
Rose Garden https://g.co/kgs/2EsmKj
The song says, " I beg your pardon. I never promised you a rose garden. Along with the sunshine, there's got to be a little rain sometime."
I think the message is to enjoy the flowers that just bloomed. Be in the moment. We just had alot of sunshine mixed with some rain showers too. We were not put on this earth to be on vacation. This is a classroom where we always have a new test to pass. We are always working to become more evolved. Sunshine is great, but without rain, you will never have flowers, you don't learn and grow. You don't pull up all the flowers in your garden in the winter just because they aren't blooming. You mulch and put them to bed. And you look forward to the flowers returning in the spring. A beautiful garden takes work. You weed, fertilize, water, mulch and repeat over and over.
After Obama was elected we thought racism was over and everything would be happily ever after. The GOP came in while we basked in the sun and took control at every level. If we had gotten everything we wanted yesterday, we probably would be sunbathing again for the next two yrs instead of continuing to fight the good fight. Yesterday was a big deal. Both Kansas and Wisconsin have democratic governors. The Kochs had a death grip on these states for years. Colorado just elected Jared Polis as governor, a gay Jewish man. Six years ago, our state house refused to even consider basic protection for gays. We were called the hate state. The NRA is weakening. They spent far less than they usually do on this election. The majority now favors stricter gun laws. Washington just past some of those new gun laws. So let's take a moment to enjoy the flowers that bloomed yesterday. Then we need to pull on those gardening gloves. We have another election to win in 2020.
Laura F. I apologize for supplying false information on Kim Davis.
Jeff Sessions just resigned at trumps request. The change in the WH has begun. The news is saying that they don’t think this will effect the Russian investigation. Wishful thinking?
To anyone feeling torn about last night -- last night was an immense victory for the Democrats and its impact cannot be overstated.
When it comes to advancing your side in, say, a war, it's important to realize the victory conditions and the statuses of those conditions. Sometimes what appears to be a loss can really be a win and a win can be a loss. You have major victories, minor victories, stalemates, minor defeats, and major defeats. I think it's important that we break down a few things to put them in perspective:
Matt, I just want to say thank you for this post. It was exactly what I needed to be reminded of today.
Matt, you are 100% correct.
Yes, it wouldve been great to take the Senate too, but the house was taken by overcoming heavily gerrymandered districts. They beat the GOP on GOP territory using historically GOP voters(suburban white women). That is HUGE. The first step in beating your opposition is to stop them from gaining ground. The House now being a barrier between Trump and the freedom to do as he pleases is that stoppage. Now Trump is stuck in political purgatory. Yes he can still play with appointments and executive orders, but that is now the extent of his power. He will not pass any more damaging legislation and will spend most of his time running from investigations and campaigning for 2020. He has been effectively nullified as a legislative threat. There was also a kickback on his overt racism that did not go unnoticed. Now he is being told that if he keeps it up, he will lose by the same 8% that Dems won by last night, if not more. Winning is everything to him so he is now forcedd to dial back the divisiveness if he wants to win.