Its easiest if broken down between what we know for sure from clinical trials and the infected public, and what we are expecting long term from exposure/vaccines.
What we know
1. Vaccine and exposure gives at least 4-6 months immunological resistance. It isn't known of it is still transmitted from those with resistance yet.
2. Vaccines show antibody production for up to 6 months
3. Infection shows memory T cells remain beyond 6 months and are used to "remember" the virus and create the correct immune response-which should protect from cytokine storms(the cause of deadly covid pneumonia)
4. The booster should give people 1 year antibody immunity at least
What we expect
1. In similar infections, the presence of memory t cells without antibodies greatly reduces damage done by viral infection for life
2. Since memory t cells outlast antibodies in non clinical infections, that should be same with those vaccinated
3. Booster vaccines could produce long lasting antibodies, as they do in some cases but not all. This would give lifelong immunity but is about a 50-50 chance since we haven't had time to study this at all
My hopeful but realistic expectation is that the vaccine with booster will give a year or two full resistance followed by years, if not lifelong, protection from severe/deadly cases. It should turn covid into just a nasty flu with minimal mortality rate in those vaccinated.
My worst case expectation is that not enough get vaccinated and its only a year immunity and we have to get the vaccines yearly until a better alternative is created.
My best case expectation is that, no matter what happens with the longevity of the vaccine, enough are vaccinated/infected that we do create herd immunity for long enough and it disappears or is forced to mutate so drastically and quickly that it becomes a common cold and we no longer have to worry about it.
One more caveat to add is that not everyone will be immune with vaccination. Everyone's biochemistry is different and some people will fall thru the cracks amd have no protection. It should be a very small percentage but will definitely happen, as with any disease.
Chicken pox, for example, is a 1 time disease with lifelong immunity for well over 99% of the population. I turned out to be one of the "lucky" ones that got 2 separate bad cases of it 3 years apart as a kid. Just like me with chicken pox, there are always the exceptions.
Hi Mas ... Can you tell us what's actually in the composition of the Covid vaccine? I thought you might have researched that if the info is available.
It's not a live virus apparently, so will have a different effect than other (live) vaccines that may produce uncomfortable or potentially debilitating side effects. This fact might encourage more people to take accountability for getting the vax .... ?
Aside from the fillers/stabilizers/etc that are new in this composition, but not new to medical/food use overall, the active viral part of the vaccine is an encapsulated rna strand used to make the spike protein everyone talks about.
Put simply, its the genetic code for that protein in a "cell"(not really but keeping it simple)
The RNA goes into your cells and causes them to make the protein for the spike, but not the part of the virus that attacks your lungs/blood vessels/etc. You body, then, kills the cells "infected" with that viral RNA, which is what causes the fever, chills, muscle pain, swollen lymphnodes, and injection site pain that we will see as side effects. It causes the immune system to recognize the spike protein in the future and develop a proper strategy to fight the virus without the chance of the virus going haywire and doing damage, since none of the other genetic material is included.
Your term of "live virus" is correct, as it is "live" viral RNA, but nothing that will cause any major tissue damage and not the full virus's RNA.
In case you want to dive further into the "live virus" idea, there is still debate out there but viruses generally aren't considered living, since they cannot reproduce alone and have to have a living host cell to accomplish that. All a virus is comprised of is a strand of genetic material enclosed in a protein sheath/shell. How they actually work is by injecting their genetic material into live cells, which ends up hijacking the cell and forcing it to produce more viruses.
Here’s the Pfizer label with ingredients and other info.
https://dailymed.nlm.nih.gov/dailymed/drugInfo.cfm?setid=908ecbe7-2f1b-42dd-94bf-f917ec3c5af8
@lowtide. I laughed at your comment re better cell reception! I bet plenty of us might agree to a tracker for reliable reception. :) here's a serious question though: What is the point of tracking people?
@jewels. Who knows??? I can’t get into the minds of conspiracy theorists. And I don’t want to!! ?
...
The RNA goes into your cells and causes them to make the protein for the spike, but not the part of the virus that attacks your lungs/blood vessels/etc. You body, then, kills the cells "infected" with that viral RNA, which is what causes the fever, chills, muscle pain, swollen lymphnodes, and injection site pain that we will see as side effects. It causes the immune system to recognize the spike protein in the future and develop a proper strategy to fight the virus without the chance of the virus going haywire and doing damage, since none of the other genetic material is included.
...
@mas1581, thanks for the detailed info. Question -- if a person does not experience a fever or any other side effects to show the immune system kicking in, does that mean the vaccine did not work for them?
The easy answer is No. Your body will have an immune response no matter what, and side effects don't mean it worked/didnt work. The only reason it won't work is if there is an issue with your immune system that causes you not to have an immune response at all, or you have immune issues that cause you to not retain antibodies or memory t cells for any length of time. Both of these issues would be almost certainly known by the patient already as it would affect the immune system in general and not just covid immunity. The chance of having a normal immune system but no immune reaction to the vaccine is possible but would be extremely rare, based on data from other vaccines.
When dealing with covid, most of the damage done to patients is done by their own immune system trying to fight the virus and not the virus itself so this could also be a natural immunity that we know is out there but have no understanding whatsoever of it yet.
Most severe covid cases are caused by immune responses going haywire because they don't know how to fight the virus. Think of it as your body is using a nuclear warhead to kill a fly because it can't find the fly swatter. That is why the symptoms vary from asymptomatic thru death and there is no real rhyme or reason as to who gets how sick. It is also why kids are less effected in general. Their immune systems are less developed.
Again, most of the info I am giving on who the vaccine wouldn't work for is speculative based on other viruses and vaccines. There is so much involved that, without covid specific data, I cant be close to 100% sure of this.
If any of my answers are redundant or come off as arrogant, I apologize. I am just trying to make sure I take the info in my head that has become second nature to me, and put it a way that everyone can understand without coming across as a know it all.