As of Monday night, the government said a total of 42,638 cases have been confirmed and 1,016 people have died in China.
Here's what confuses me about the virus. I was reading an article that said that the virus likely started as early as October and that officials sat on it far too long.
But even considering the long incubation period, and even IF we say it didn't start as early as October...it still seems oddly concentrated in China. Given the fact that people have been flying all over the world unhindered (until about mid-January when concerns started to rise outside of China)...and given the two-week incubation period...still seems like there would be more cases outside of China.
I'm not sure what this means, exactly -- I'm not a conspiracy theorist and don't want to say the Chinese government is up to no good, but....just seems odd, is all.
I’ve been lurking on this site forever, but finally made an account just for this topic.
There’s a ton of misinformation going around about the Wuhan virus right now. I’ve been obsessed with the story since it first broke into the public consciousness in late January, and have been doing my best to sort through fact and fiction. Here’s what we know so far:
- The virus originated from bats, not snakes as was initially reported. Experts think it went through at least one other animal vector before making the jump to humans (currently they’re looking at pangolins), but aren’t 100% certain on that. The virus is a very close cousin to SARS, which also came from bats.
- The Hunan Seafood Market was named as the initial source of infection, with the theory being that infected bats were kept near other animals & people to facilitate the viral mutation. This no longer seems to be the case, as some of the earliest cases identified in December had no direct link to the market. Experts are now theorizing that the virus was circulating among the community in Wuhan as early as November or even October, and the wet market was a key hub of transmission. (This makes a lot of sense, because you have to have a certain number of cases identified before you can know there’s really an outbreak happening.)
- China has absolutely been fudging the numbers since the very start of the outbreak, and that is fueling a lot of the underlaying panic & hysteria we’ve been feeling. 8 doctors were arrested in December after discussing - in private messages to their group - what they thought was a SARS outbreak & the need for immediate action. Had authorities acted to contain the outbreak then (instead of hiding the story & pretending everything was normal), the situation would likely not have become so dire so quickly. At least one of those 8 doctors has since passed because of the virus.
- Current models predict the outbreak in Hubei province will complete itself sometime in April. Outbreaks in other parts of China most likely have a lag time of 1 to 2 weeks behind the epicenter. Assuming the virus acts similar to SARS (and so far it has), warm weather should help curb the spread - but it’s not certain at this point in time. Experts think the epidemic/pandemic should burn itself out by the end of summer as long as containment measures are kept up with.
This is absolutely a scary situation and well worth a cautious mindset - but we can’t allow ourselves to panic. Right now the graver threat from the outbreak is economic disruption, so stock up in supplies while you can & wash your hands often. If anyone has any questions about the virus (or related conspiracies) I will happily do my best to answer them. This isn’t a world-ending situation, but it is definitely a world-changing one!
@saokymo Thank you for weighing in and welcome to the forum! It will help if you cite sources to your statements so people can evaluate them. If my intuition on this situation is working, I will add that I have not yet felt panicked about it. I see others, however, including medical professionals, sounding the alarm.
The captain on the Diamond Princess just announced that there are an additional 38 people who have the virus. That means 173 total have been infected. The Quarantine continues.
Good news over all for today.
There were 95 deaths reported overnight according to health officials and Chinese news sites. That’s down from 116 reported for Monday - a drop of 22%.
- New cases reported for the Chinese mainland on Tuesday is 1,696. That is down from a peak of over 3,000 new cases on 4 February and the lowest number of new infections since 1,347 were reported on 31 January.
- The Diamond Princess announced a the virus count for today is actually 39, not 38.
A lighter story from China.
A Chinese marathon runner has completed a 50km run around his living room in order to relieve the boredom of coronavirus lockdown, writes Naaman Zhou.
Pan Shancu, from the city of Hangzhou in Zhejiang province, completed 6,250 laps of track consisting of two large tables set up inside his apartment.
“I have not been outside for many days, today I cannot bear sitting down any more!” he posted last week. “One lap is about 8m – I ran 50km, did it in 4:48:44, sweated all over, feels great!”
The Lancet scientific journal has an excellent resource site with various academic articles concerning the coronavirus, which has now been named Covid-19: https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus
@suspira Thanks for trying to reassure me that the virus will end in warmer weather. I appreciate anyone trying to help people calm down!
But no one has any evidence that this virus will abate in warm weather.
All they know about this virus's ability to withstand different temperatures is that it has spread in 40-50 degree F. rainy weather.
Some viruses thrive in hot weather, some do not. Some do well year round. SARS ended in summer but there is no evidence that that was because of the weather and not from measures health authorities took that stopped it.
https://fortune.com/2020/02/10/coronavirus-spread-wuhan-summer-winter/
@jeanne-mayell I was being facetious. That's what Trump said. Why would I believe any scientific declaration by him? He's an idiot.
@suspira44 So sorry! I’d had missed your earlier post attributing the warm weather ending to trump.
It boggles the mind that the chief executive who has the entire Centers for Disease Control plus the surgeon general at his disposal passes along some lame brain internet rumor to the public about an epidemic.
If it helps ease some minds, the mortality rate of this new coronavirus is 2% (so far).
For SARS it is about 15% (50% for those over age 60). For H5N1 Avian Flu (from a couple of years ago) it's 50-60%. For the Flu Pandemic of 1918 it was 25%. For 2009 Swine Flu it was lower - .02%. In the 2017-18 flu season, which was a very bad one, 80,000 people worldwide died, but percentage is hard to calculate because we don't have full data sets for numbers of cases (a lot went unreported), but ballpark estimate puts it at around 1%.
My data is coming from several sources, but primarily CDC. Some of it comes from an acquaintance who is a pandemic specialist, who used to be high up in the CDC.
So-even if cases in China are under reported, what we don't know is if deaths are being under reported. Current thinking is a big fat question mark, but it's notable that the mortality rate outside China remains low.
Perhaps someone can help me understand this latest news coming from China. Was the previous way to diagnose the disease super strict and now it is just more an assumption based on scans?
This is a HUGE jump now!
China’s Hubei province reported an additional 242 deaths and 14,840 new cases as of Feb. 12 — a sharp increase from the previous day. The province said it is starting to include “clinically diagnosed” cases in its figures and that 13,332 of the new cases fall under that classification.
The government said that a total of 1,310 people have died in the province and that 48,206 people have been infected in the region.
The change was made so that more patients could receive the same treatment as a confirmed case would, according to a CNBC translation of the official announcement’s Chinese text.
The online release cited a national-level virus response plan issued last week, which expanded the definition of clinically diagnosed cases in Hubei province to include suspected cases for whom CT scans showed indications of the disease. It was not immediately clear why Hubei was implementing the measures this week. — Cheng
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html
The disturbing jump in total numbers tonight is because of a change in classification - confirmed cases now include both those who test positive and those who have been clinically diagnosed but have not yet been tested. They added the entire backlog of 13k clinical cases at once so the numbers look kind of scary. We should have a better idea how things are really tracking with clinical cases over the next few days as reporting stabilizes.
More on the Diamond Princess and the Holland America Westerdam
Another 44 people on board The Diamond Princess moored off Japan’s east coast have tested positive for the coronavirus, bringing the number of infections on the ship to 218.
The latest cases were confirmed after a further 221 people aboard the Diamond Princess were tested, the health minister, Katsunobu Kato, said on Thursday.
A quarantine officer who boarded the ship to conduct initial health checks last week has also tested positive for Covid-19.
A team of officials will board the MV Westerdam to conduct health checks as the cruise ship remains anchored 1km (0.6 miles) off the coast of Sihanoukville port in Cambodia, regional governor Kouch Chamrouen has told Associated Press.
The ship, which has 1,455 passengers and 802 crew on board , arrived at the port early on Thursday. The passengers, who are mostly American, Canadian, British and Dutch, will not be allowed off until the checks are done.
US ambassador to Cambodia, W Patrick Murphy, said he sent an embassy team to work with the ship’s representatives and Cambodian officials to help Americans disembark and transfer to their onward destinations.
Fear about the Tokyo Olympics
The president of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic committee said on Thursday that the Covid-19 outbreak would not affect this summer’s Games.
“I want to again state clearly that cancellation or postponement of the Tokyo Games has not been considered,” Yoshiro Mori said at the start of a two-day meeting in Tokyo with the International Olympic Committee.
The chairman of the IOC coordination commission, John Coates, said the coronavirus was an “unexpected issue”, adding that organisers would draw up appropriate measures to protect athletes and spectators, Kyodo news agency said.
Last week the organising committee’s chief executive, Toshiro Muto, said he was concerned about the impact the spread of the virus was having in the run-up to the Tokyo Games, which are due to open in 162 days. Several qualifying tournaments that were due to be held in China have been postponed or moved to other countries.
These extreme measures just how seriously some are taking this virus. Not sure about the rationale of virsl germ life on human hair but still understand that many are in such a panic and dealing with extreme stress and duress creates a need for some relief and additionsl hope that they are doing the best they can under trying circumstances.
- Chinese nurses heading to Wuhan are shaving their heads to help them fight the coronavirus epidemic more effectively.
- Having no hair achieves a few things: It prevents the infection from spreading via exposed hair and also makes it easier to put on and take off protective gear.
- Time pressure for medical staff in Wuhan is extreme, and saving even a few minutes a day is seen as worthwhile.
- Extreme measures being taken include wearing adult diapers instead of taking bathroom breaks.
VIDEO: Chinese nurses in Wuhan shave heads to prevent cross-infection - Business Insider
WOW!
The shaving of heads or the diapers, I don't know which is more extreme. It is a true war zone in China right now.
Update for virus news:
-Another 67 people onboard the Diamond Princess have tested positive for novel coronavirus, Japanese Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Saturday -- bringing the number of cases from the ship to 286.
The US state department has chartered 2 planes to evacuated US passengers onboard the Diamond Princess. US citizens will undergo extensive screening and a 14 day quarantine period should they choose to disembark.
On Saturday, US passengers received an email from the State Department urging them to leave the ship and return to the United States. There are currently some 400 US citizens aboard the Diamond Princess. 24 Americans have tested positive for the virus so far.
-Africa has its first case, in Egypt.
The virus has now infected more than 67,000 people and killed over 1,500, the vast majority in mainland China.
-An American passenger on the Westerdam cruise ship, turned away from 5 countries despite no reports of illness on board at the the time before finally docking in Cambodia, has tested positive now for the virus. She tested positive in Mayasia after fly from Cambodia with 144 others from the ship.
Unbelievable!
Another 70 additional cruise ship people on the Diamond Princess have the Corona virus.
The total infected from the ship stands at 356 now. One health official who tested passengers was additionally infected There are (were?) over 3,700 passengers and crew on board. So, roughly 10% percent have now been infected. Quarantine was due to end on Feb. 19th but with the daily numbers soaring of those now infected, that would be doubtful. Canada, Hong Kong are sending evacuation planes in addition to the US which has started evacuating now or should any moment. The Aussies are sending an "expert" to evaluate the situation. The UK is doing nothing at the moment and Brits are very upset.
While the passengers were quarantined, the crew was not and has still been on duty attending the ship and passengers. Though masked, the crew has eaten meals together and still slept in crew quarters.
This virus is VERY contagious!