I have a Harvard masters in public health and I would say you have answered the question in the wake of not much information being released so far. The number of recoveries likely depends on two factors:
1. The definition of what constitutes a recovery. Since the disease has involved pneumonia for some then it could be a longer drawn out recovery which means we won’t know much for a few months.
2. Their data on the number of recoveries also depends on how many people who got sick have confirmed with them that they recovered, so there is likely a reporting error.
We don’t know what their procedures are for confining people who are confirmed cases and whether there is a likelihood of their losing track of them.
Early studies showed a 3 percent death rate. But nothing on recovery rates. I bet that death rate will go down once the Chinese health authorities are able to get more detection information out there and also able to get more test kits and prevention information and facial shields and plastic gloves out there. They have huge populations to deal with at an order of magnitude way beyond any US city.
There might be more information released by the Centers for Disease control that we could find. I suggest going to the website of the CDC for more information. I will also do a little looking when I can.
Update so far for today.
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The death toll increased to 258, with more than 11,000 cases confirmed in mainland China.
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The UK, Russia and Spain recorded their first cases.
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The US declared a public health emergency and announced it will temporarily bar entry for people traveling from China unless they are Americans or immediately related to US citizens.
Thank you for shedding some more light.
@lovendures thank you for keeping track of the virus here. Botswana registered its first confirmed case today as well.
Thank you for adding Botswana
. I was thinking that people may get tired of seeing these posts. I feel that this news could easily get buried by what is happening in the US right now with impeachment and so forth. I have discovered The Guardian to be an excellent source for tracking information, other sources, not so much .
Here is the latest new information to add.
- The number of confirmed deaths from China’s coronavirus outbreak has risen to 259, as authorities in hardest-hit Hubei province reported 45 new fatalities.
- Cases of infection in China now stand at more than 11,790.
- Both the US and Australia have announced travel bans for anyone coming from mainland China, except for citizens and residents. Citizens travelling from China will be subject to a two week quarantine
- Multiple airlines have also suspended flights to mainland China until 29 March, including Australian airline Qantas which has cancelled flights to Shanghai and Beijing and Air New Zealand which has suspended flights to Shanghai
- Australia now has ten reported cases of coronavirus
- The UK government is withdrawing staff from embassies across China
- Beijing has criticised the US government’s decision to raise their travel warning advisory on China to the highest level of risk.
- According to a Reuters report, coronavirus has led to a damaging drop in tourism for beach resorts in Thailand which are hugely popular with Chinese tourists. Reduced travel from China alone could result in 50 billion baht ($1.52 billion) of lost tourism revenue, the Thai Tourism Ministry estimated.
- Sweden and Spain have verified cases of the virus.
- Cases recorded in Thailand, Taiwan, Germany, Vietnam, Japan, France and the United States involved patients who had not been to China.
This is also an interesting fact.
US preparedness to deal with the threat of coronavirus has been hampered by the personnel and budget cuts made by the Trump administration over the past three years, according to health experts.
There is no one in the White House tasked specifically to oversee a coordinated government-wide response in the event of a pandemic, since the post of senior director for global health security and biothreats on the national security council (NSC) was eliminated last May. The post was eliminated by John Bolton.
Funding has also been cut drastically to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), forcing it to reduce or discontinue epidemic-prevention efforts in 39 out of the 49 countries it had been helping.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/31/us-coronavirus-budget-cuts-trump-underprepared
You can now add Boston to the list.
Health officials in Massachusetts confirmed the first case of coronavirus in the state after a man returning from Wuhan, China, tested positive for the infection.
The man is in his 20s and lives in Boston, the state's Department of Health said in a press release on Saturday. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notified health officials about the case late Friday evening, the release stated, adding that the risk to the public is low.
China’s new confirmed infections from the coronavirus outbreak increased by a daily record, up by 2,590 cases on Saturday to top 14,380 as the quickly growing epidemic prompted global travel restrictions and evacuations. 304 people have died. 14,542 people have the virus worldwide.
The first known death of someone outside of China happened in the Philippines today.He was a 44 year old resident of Wuhan and the second confirmed case in the Philippines. He had traveled with a friend who was the first reported infection in the country, also from Wuhan.
As this virus continues to expand, I am sleepless tonight thinking about the suffering of Chinese and Chinese Americans who have to endure not only the horror of this virus in their mother country but the racist sentiments unfairly expressed against them. I apologize for any pain any reader of Chinese descent has experienced from what was written here and promise you that we will strive to correct any wrongs that occur in this forum and speak to the wrongs that have occurred elsewhere. People falter. This forum must be a place that is safe for everyone.
We must also be a place where people can make mistakes and be lovingly and gently reminded.
Johns Hopkins has an interactive dashboard that depicts the current number of infected as well as the current number of deaths and recoveries.
The number of recoveries has gone up a bit in the last couple of days and has now surpassed the number of deaths, which is reassuring.
Also all of the deaths are in China, with nearly all of them in Wuhan; I'm sure there are several reasons for this but perhaps these were early infected who thought they just had a cold and did not seek medical attention quickly enough. Also China's poor air quality would exacerbate lung problems brought on by the virus, although I am not certain re: the level of Wuhan's air pollution.
At any rate, this graphic is good for seeing the number of recoveries go up, which might bring some comfort to those worried about the virus:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Thank you so much for this information. It is so helpful to have easy access to an actual statistics readerboard for those who are concerned about the spread of this virus to get quick updates without caring and concerned members having to keep reporting updates here.
Love to you @lovendures with thanks for all your personally involved hard work ytying to provide so much information on so many places. We keep your family and your daughter and her college family in our thoughts and prayers that all will be well ? Love to you wonderful wonderful lady ?
It's incredibly important to be aware and informed. We have so many empathic and very sensitive as well as sensitized readers here who take news of outbreaks personally when risks in their area are low.
Treading the waters of informational statistics and being aware of spreading panic during these times will become ever more important in the changing times so this is great to know about!
Thank you so much Sistermoon. We appreciate your input on this site and I feel badly that there was a bit of mix up as threads were merged that we couldn't find your posts right off to welcome and reply to you.
Welcome welcome welcome! I am so truly happy to have you here as a member of our often very human but deeply caring tribe. ???