@coyote was writing recently that global warming is exponential. Exponential growth means that most of the growth happens subtlety, unseen, then explodes suddenly, seemingly without warning, as when something goes viral. This article explains how exponential growth works for anyone who doesn't know, or wants to know a way to explain it to others.
We all saw exponential growth during the pandemic. One day there were just a few cases, and then suddenly without warning, there were thousands of new cases a day. The point is that by the time we start noticing something that is growing exponentially, it may be about to explode in size.
While thinking in terms of exponential growth is daunting, remember that while the climate events may be surging, so too is progressive action. Both the bad and the good move exponentially. I just want to help a critical mass of people to be aware of how exponential growth works, so they can spawn progressive action as early as possible.
Last weeks' two events: the Florida coastal high rise collapse and the heat dome in the northwest and in Russia feel to me like the beginning of global warming spike.
Exponential growth won't tell us exactly when the next heat dome will happen or how high the temperatures will rise. But it is a sign of spiking climate events.
Exponential growth is counter intuitive which is why many won't wake up until it is heavily upon them. I don't know why I knew back in 2010 that the climate predictions the IPCC* was making for the year 2100 were way too conservative, but I knew. I also knew at the beginning of this year that we were in another surge of climate events.
Don't listen to people who say the northwest temperature dome was an aberration. I read one article that made that claim. No, we are in a new normal.
Don't freak out either! Initially freaking out is understandable, but it's not helpful. I was pretty upset at first, so I cuddled my dog and called loved ones until my head came back to my body. I tried not to post doomsday scenarios here or elsewhere and I beg of you not to do that either. If you are sensitive, how can you not feel upset at times? But when I come to my senses, I see the positives that are happening as well. I see how these events are changing our civilization to a kinder more caring collective. I also know that human action, once it takes off, is also exponential. The difficult events are the reason we came here. So let's open our eyes to what is happening and let's rise together.
So does anyone have any ideas about exponential growth and climate change and how people can prepare short term and how we can help work towards longer term change?
As a very short term action, I'm going to get more air conditioners and start researching how well our basement would keep us cool during a heat spike. I'm also going to ask our town how they will prepare for such an event.
* International Panel on Climate Change
Excellent thought on asking your town how they will prepare. Power grids are really going to be put through their paces in the future aren't they?
@jeanne-mayell I'm going to start speaking up more, even if it is unwelcome. I want to find a way to be more compelling about the need for climate action without causing panic or starting a fight. I need a more positive but strong approach.
Lytton, a town in western Canada burned because of the high temps last week. The author sites Ms Miller as being brave because she had been thinking climate change is only affecting places like Miami but last weeks events showed otherwise. Worth reading the entire piece for sure.
“Ms. Miller’s brave admission is an invitation to us all. Consciously or not, our tendency to register unpleasant and frightening information intellectually, while holding it at bay emotionally, is one way we defend ourselves from the fear and discomfort caused by what is happening all around us, right now, in real time.”
I spent last week in Spokane. For three days the heat was brutal. In the sun you felt like you were burning alive. We spent most of the day in the hotel, only going out early morning or after the sun went down, and even then the heat was oppressive.
The bad news is too many people still don't take it seriously, and most big corporations don't give a damn as long as their money's good.
The good news is the more frequent climate events become, the more scared people will get, and that will be a huge motivating factor. There are also amazing advancements being made to fight climate change, water scarcity and food inequality. There are still many bright stars among us. Thank God for science.
@jeanne-mayell Yes, it is overwhelming. I cannot remember a time (except maybe before I was 6 or so) when I have not felt conscious and overwhelmed by what I knew humans were doing to their habitat via overpopulation, pollution, forest destruction and later on (like in the late 70's-- which is way earlier than most people had a clue), greenhouse gases. A lot of it had to do with where I grew up (rural central Florida- which was being systematically destroyed). A lot had to do with being educated and informed by some really smart teachers from day one.
And I know a lot about all this sh*t because of my heavy-duty education in earth science. Sh*t is real. But no one wants to believe it. No one even wants to face the concept that even maybe if the consequences aren't 100% inevitable, why not invoke risk management principles JUST IN CASE? I've always been made to feel like effing "Chicken Little". Still am, by many.
It eats at me every day, all the time, and it is getting worse as the news gets worse. My position gives me a small platform from which I can try to educate a few and I try to feel good about that but I know it is not enough. Until people wake the hell up and value the "good of the many" over their personal short-term wealth and status, things are unlikely to change. (This applies not only to climate change, but to pretty much all the ills of the world.)
Excuse the venting-- my brother's passing a few weeks ago took my normally high anxiety levels up to an even higher baseline and I can hardly even think about the world anymore.
Tree planting is a movement I'd like to see go viral this year. Look what they do in India! Indians plant 250 million saplings amid mass campaign.
Fall is a great time to plant trees. Trees not only eat carbon and clean the air, but they create shade and when the sun's rays get hot, trees and all plant life sweat out water which in turn keeps the air from getting too dry.
BTW, the next time you see sunflower sales -- our Whole Foods is promoting their sunflower plans right now -- ask them if these are pollinators or sterilized sunflowers. Do not buy sterilized sunflowers. Bees need pollinator plants to survive and we need bees to survive - spread the plants' sperm to other plants and help our planet thrive.
This morning's Boston Globe: Why some of these tall beauties are not the bees Knees