Stock Market Crash

I hope to look at this again while on retreat in a few weeks. Back in 2014 while on a retreat I had seen it happening in 2019 or 2020 and then returning back in 2028. Did not see any particular companies involved. Just the DOW. I'm due for a another look at it to see if it is still going to happen then.

Thanks Jeanne...would love an update. 

The last time my wife and I checked in with our local physic, she predicted a stock market crash in the next few years. She said she had very, very strong and uneasy feelings about this and felt that most people would, "lose everything". Not particularly comforting. I would point out that if we learn anything from history it is that these types of crisis have to be managed very carefully. If no "adults" are in key positions, things can go much worse than they need to. 

I remember hearing a Hank Paulson quote from late 2008 to the effect that, (and I'm paraphrasing) we were "two weeks away from there being no food on the shelves".  If you go back to the Great Depression the banking system was shutting down in the weeks before FDR's inauguration. There were entire states without a functioning bank.

In other words, what could have been manageable can become a crisis if the leadership makes the wrong decisions. The current administration does not give me much confidence.

I think, it is a good time to learn how to grow your own vegetables and fruit, and collect seeds. That way if you have trouble growing, you have time to learn and able pass it down to your children.

Knowing that a crash will be coming, what would be the best strategy in the present time to safeguard your savings?

Good point, Kim. I took up vegetable gardening four years ago. There is a learning curve, so good to start learning now. I doubt  we will have food shortages in the West for a long time, but I wanted to learn to grow food to help me navigate where to live and so that I could pass it down to my children.  

Probably Paulson was correct, but he also needed to justify his decision to use the National Treasury to bail out the very institutions whose recklessness and greed caused the crash, and Paulson himself came from the banking industry.  I did not trust him or much of anything he said. However, I do trust the wisdom and brilliance of Paul Krugman, nobel laureate economist, and he urged a bank bailout to avoid a 1929 scenario.

But for those who fear a market crash will break the back of the U.S. economy for good, it will not. 

Although I've seen a crash coming,  I've also seen the market returning in 2028, which means, we still have a banking system, an infrastructure, businesses intact, food in the markets, and everything else an economy needs to thrive.  It will not be starvation and squalor, as some fear. But many will lose net worth, especially people who have debt, or who need to cash in on their assets to survive, like many of the elderly who were counting on the value of their homes.

  Also in spite of the fact that I saw a game changing drought in the U.S. Heartland in the mid to late 2020's, still the stock market returns in the late 20's. Again this means that we do not irrevocably collapse. 

How far does the Dow drop?  Unfortunately, my vision did not reveal that. My guess is it will be worse than 2008, but not worse than the Great Depression.  (However over the long-term, climate change will likely bear down on us in the 2030's and beyond if we don't do something about it). 

Also as for what could trigger a crash,  there are so many wrong things that Donald Trump's inexperienced people do. They are creating the conditions for a perfect storm in what they have already done, i.e., further deregulating the banking industry being the main thing, sending the deficit to an all time high while sucking the middle class dry by pulling out social programs.  

The straw that breaks the economic back could be his tax cut proposal, if allowed to go through, which will eliminate homeowner property tax deductions.  Homeowner incentives were put in place to stimulate the economy because home ownership is a major economic stimulant.  If Trump's proposed tax cut goes through, the housing market will crash, and that could create a perfect storm for the economy that is already building. So 2019 or 2020 is just about the right timing for a crash -- enough time for the Republican administration's policies to work their way through the economy and bring it down. I don't call it for that time because it make sense, however, but because that is when I have seen it happening. 

But I reserve the right to check again in a month or so, so see if I still see it. You can't look at these things too often or your view gets cloudy.

Get rid of debt. Make sure your savings are federally insured.

Post Script: ask financial experts, since I am not a financial expert. There are undoubtedly other measures you can take to protect yourself besides what I've mentioned above.  People might tell you to get out of the stock market and buy gold, for example,  but then if there isn't a crash, and you get out, you will be pretty annoyed that you did.  So I'll leave that up to you.   People who stayed in the market after 2008 saw huge gains over time--not that I'm advocating investing in the stock market.  Just be thoughtful and consult experts if you are already in.  For what I would do personally,  I'd avoid debt, so that at least I can keep what I have.  But again, I'm not a financial expert.  

 I do not believe that society is going to collapse. I would save that possibility for long term climate change which is a long way away.  I'd rather focus on activism to stop fossil fuel burning. 

What I feel will happen is that people will adjust.  We are a resilient society.  After the Great Fire of Chicago in 1871 where the city was completely flattened by fire, people began erecting little market stands within days of the fire along the roads--selling their wares and services.  Those little wooden stands became booths which became stores and, like ants who set right to work, the people of Chicago kept going, selling, rebuilding. We are not an easily  stoppable species even when ignorant reckless leaders take over for a while.  We will survive and I don't believe you will lose everything unless much of what you have is in the stock market and your assets are heavily mortgaged. 

Agreed. Shocking news is on track.