Good news!
2 arthritis drugs have been approved on the UK to treat Covid-19 patients.
"About 36 percent of patients died in the hospital who received standard care, while 28 percent died on tocilizumab and 22 percent died when given sarilumab. Patients treated with the drugs spent about a week less in the ICU, on average." https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/08/covid-arthritis-drugs-treatment/
I just saw on CNN that the vaccine appears to protect against the mutated version of CV19. I am in group 1C (over 65) and can’t wait to be able to get it. My daughter is a supervisor in a regional jail here in VA (they had 4 cases in July) and she will be able to get the vaccine by the beginning of February.
So there is now a mutated strain in the UK a different one in S. Africa and one in Japan which appears to have come from travelers from Brazil. The UK one is causing an enormous spike in the UK because it is so transmissible. The S. African and Ja[panese one also appear to have high transmission rate possibilities.
https://www.newsweek.com/new-covid-variant-japan-potential-more-infectious-1560475
Its going to keep mutating to get more transmissible and ultimately less fatal. If you notice the % of cases ending in deaths is going down and has gone down enormously since last March/April. That is some to do with treatment but not much. It is in the viruses evolutionary best interests to become more infectious and keep more of its hosts alive. This happens with almost every virus out there. Also, I'm very confident that the vaccine makers planned for this so they are all using proteins less likely to evolve and will still be fully effective.
We in the general public know about a few mutations but there have been thousands so far, and at least a dozen or two that have stuck since it first started infecting humans. This isn't anything to worry about
I am more concerned that the new strains will cause a dramatic rise of cases because of how contagious they are which will put more stress on hospital systems that are continuing to function in a war zone type way. This is currently happening in the UK. I am glad they don't appear to be more dangerous.
Theyre already here. We don't gene map positive tests near what we should but just look at the spikes we've had. Most, if not all, of the "new found strains" are already in the US. The one I had I know of 5 symptomatic people in the line of contact and all had symptoms within 48 hours of exposure. That is right on par with what the Australian strain has been doing, but supposedly that one isn't here.
The US has reached the heartbreaking number of 407,202 deaths from Covid-19 today. It is indeed going to be a very dark next few months as Dr.Fauci predicted. 173,492 new cases today. My state of Georgia is ranked 7th highest in infections and deaths. I can only imagine what all of those thousands of travelers to DC and unmasked rioters at the Capitol did that is super spreading this virus. I do hope that as soon as they are sworn in ~ there will be a mask mandate for those essential workers that must be out, that there is a lockdown and financial support to help us get through this and out the other side..and get the vaccines rolling...before it mutates and is not viable.
The US has reached the heartbreaking number of 407,202 deaths from Covid-19 today. It is indeed going to be a very dark next few months as Dr.Fauci predicted. 173,492 new cases today. My state of Georgia is ranked 7th highest in infections and deaths. I can only imagine what all of those thousands of travelers to DC and unmasked rioters at the Capitol did that is super spreading this virus. I do hope that as soon as they are sworn in ~ there will be a mask mandate for those essential workers that must be out, that there is a lockdown and financial support to help us get through this and out the other side..and get the vaccines rolling...before it mutates and is not viable.
Agreed.
There is a glimmer of good news, however. The number of daily new cases in the US has been declining recently-- hopefully this is the beginning of a long-term trend. Maybe the thing is starting to burn itself out with a bit of "herd immunity".
Every day I look at this website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us to track the progress in the world, the US and my state. I use the 7-day smoothing option on the bar graphs to get a better idea of the trends. The site also has a link ("Projections") to another site which attempts to predict progress of the pandemic-- and according to that site we have just gotten over the peak. With the vaccine and better behavior the pandemic is predicted to tail off rather quickly. (Unfortunately, with new mutant strains of the virus coming out which are more infections the data model may have to be changed-- with the result being a less optimistic prediction.)
Is anyone sensing anything about the new variants and their spread causing more severe trouble here in the U.S.?
I am feeling a tickle in my mind to stock-up a bit (just like a year ago at this same time...) and be ready to hunker even further in response to this. Curious as to what others are getting?
The news articles are starting to sound a tad more concerning. Three of late: the British variant possibly being more deadly; Denmark testing revealing that the spread there may be due to the wide-spread presence of the British variant; and the terrible situation in Brazil running out of hospital equipment.
British variant more deadly: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55768627
Denmark - spread of British variant: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/uk-variant-covid-denmark/2021/01/22/ddfaf420-5453-11eb-acc5-92d2819a1ccb_story.html
Manaus, Brazil crisis: https://www.npr.org/2021/01/22/959567446/coronavirus-crisis-gets-even-worse-in-brazilian-amazon-city-of-manaus
Actually, yes I am starting to feel the "hunker down, stay home feeling" which I felt early when this all happened last Spring. It feels a little different but similar enough that I am evaluating my food/essential things situation again. In 1 weeks time, I have only been out for one grocery trip and a needed doctor visit. I need to do a big stockpile trip, but during off hours.
News of the South African variant is concerning. The virus may evade defenses the vaccine builds in our bodies' immune system. More study is needed.
I am down on the list before I can receive a vaccination so my job will be to stay as safe for as long as possible. In my state I think I am in the third tier, but MANY people are in that tier group.
Arizona, my state, is considered the worst in the country. It currently has the highest hospitalization and death rates. The state also has the third-worst transmission rate, only behind Washington and Hawaii, and the second-worst death rate, only trailing Alabama. Arizona had the seventh-worst vaccination rate, with Alabama being the worst. Our Governor WILL NOT LEAD.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-variant-south-africa-vaccines-2021-1
I thought you might be having the same feeling! Like you said - it is different, but there enough to take notice. I feel like I want to limit the grocery trips as well and just not "push it."
I hear you with being down on the list - we are here in Michigan and also would fall in what is 3rd tier, so probably not vaccinated until late spring. We are having some delays in our county and state due to vaccine supply, so it may be even later than that.
I am itching to know more about the way increased transmissibility plays out and what that means for precautions.
Anyway - keeping a close eye on it all, for sure.
Regarding the UK variant possibly being more deadly: there is no conclusive data to prove that just yet. One of the numbers I saw tossed about on Reddit was “30% increase in fatalities.” That’s certainly concerning, but also slightly misleading - say the original stain had 10 out of every 1000 cases being fatal, and the new strain now has 13 out of every 1000 cases instead. Given how transmissible the new strains are, it could be a simple case of having so many more infections and not a true increase in severity - but we won’t know until scientists can analyze more data.
Thanks for pointing that out! I am definitely waiting for more data on that - didn't mean to imply total panic just yet :) But am still curious as to what people's intuition are saying to them...like @lovendures said, getting a little feeling like, I want to check my stock, minimize trips out, etc.
Hoping that the research will reveal no increase in mortality.
@cc21 I always forget you’re in Michigan too!
I think it’s a given that we’ll contract some of the openings here and possibly close certain things down. I feel like schools will be more regionally but - with three different worrying strains moving toward the world (UK, Africa, and the California variant that they’re beginning to identify) I think this means transmission of the virus is going to tick up again.
The major difference between last spring and now - if and when those contractions come we’ve actually got a leader at the top who is working on a federal response to it - maybe your intuition is telling you we’ll lock down again (I’m with you) and it won’t be as long term this time around because we’ll actually be using the time to beef up our federal and state responses in a way we couldn’t before?
Glad to help! The new strains are certainly something to be concerned about, but it always helps to understand objective data so we don’t have to panic over every hyped up headline. :)
My intuition (or rather my best educated guess) is that things will probably start to improve in 6 weeks or so as more vaccines are administered and we get past the Christmas/New Years surges. It will still be grim, but now that competent adults are back in charge we should be able to mount a coordinated push back against the pandemic.
Yes! I am on the southeast side of MI. I totally agree with your assessment - I think that the openings that are happening now may be pulled back as the more transmissible strains tick up. But I also agree that it may be a more temporary lockdown as we now have that federal leadership and support. Fingers-crossed! Hard to believe we are only not-quite-a-week into the new administration. It will take time to ramp things up. I am hopeful that the response will be better and more flexible as time goes on, even if newer strains are taking hold.
@cc21 I don’t know about you, but I’m super optimistic about the midterm elections in 2022. Yes, Whitmer will face a lot of pressure from the Covidiots, but I think they - like many of the super Trumpers are a loud but small minority - I think there are many who will remember exactly how well Whitmer led us through this to join for re-election. That woman was the leader we needed at the exact right time - much like Biden. Could you imagine what state Michigan would be in right now in regards to COVID if Schutte had won? We’d be Florida, only probably worse!
But the biggest thing is the Voters not Politicians drive kicking into effect! Our first independent redistricting process! I’ve already been noticing the house and senate majorities trying to point out the flaws in folks like Senator McMorrow (my favorite of all senators and she’s not even mine!) and others in an effort to keep the focus on party vs platform. But from this point forward - they have to have a platform to win and I think we’ll reclaim the house and senate handily once those lines are fairly redrawn.
Yes! I agree - Whitmer was the right person at the right time. Thank goodness!
I hope you are right about the Covidiots. They sure do seem prevalent here in MI. It would be great to see the midterms go the way we need them to. We had a good friend involved in the Voters Not Politicians drive, so I am excited to see how it goes.