I told Jeanne I'd do my prediction on the North Korea talks when I felt the timeline got less wobbly. It's still wobbling a lot, but I'm getting the feeling that it's not going to get any clearer. Decisions may literally be made at the last minute, on the spur of the moment. And it doesn't help that events in the Middle East will get mixed up with it, and can influence decisions.
I'm still getting that the talks will go ahead, though there is still a small chance of Kim Jong Un cancelling at the last minute.
Trump and his current advisers believe that his tough talk last year helped to get the peace process going. This isn't true at all, it's been mainly the good work of South Korea. Unfortunately, because they believe that, they'll be timing a big military attack in Syria, attacking Iranian positions, to fit with the beginning of the North Korean talks. In their view, this kills two birds with one stone: attacking Iran and intimidating North Korea. This isn't going to go down well with Kim Jong Un. He'll present the proposal he's been working on with South Korea and China, but it will be pretty much on a "take it or leave it" basis. The US delegation will reject it, and that will be the end of the talks.
The US won't do much except strong words after that. This is because the nuclear test site in North Korea has collapsed, so it's known North Korean options to do threatening moves are fairly limited right now. Also, the US military will be pretty busy in the Middle East, and with NATO exercises a bit later on. A military strike on North Korea is looking a lot less likely now, but serious escalation in the Middle East is now looking almost like a certainty.
Generally, I agree. Still a chance of a Korea deal, and quite possibly, in the background of what is going on in middle east, which will climb to the top of the news. but not abandoned. A short delay, but this will be due to Trump, and his tactless manner....but something wstill be announced.....the deal is on the table...the Chinese have made it clear that the situation is intolerable, and they have invested much prestige in the talks.....so will be very annoyed with Trump...if there is no ultimate success. Trump will get severely talked to by other world leaders. who are getting increasingly angry at his behavior.....
This may be enough to get it across the finishing line.....but about a week before the talks, we will get clear indications....
As I said on my first post, the timelines were very wobbly on this one. What caught me completely blindsided was that it would be Trump cancelling the talks. I always assumed it would be Kim Jong Un doing it, so I didn't look for the other option. Lesson learned: when timelines are very wobbly, try to think what is it you didn't think about before.
I'll focus on this one and I'll post something when I get some clear impressions. My initial gut feeling is that nothing is going to happen about North Korea soon, but this is very much a preliminary thing.
Any thoughts about the real reason Trump canceled the talks? My thoughts are that Trump realizes he will be made a fool of by the North Koreans. He also has his hawks (like Bolton) chomping at the bit to make zero concessions.
My intuition has said all along that Trump never had ANY intention of going completely through with this meeting. He absolutely loathes KJU and would blow him off the map in a New York minute if he could. He has no reality of nuclear consequences. But, fortunately, my feeling is that our generals will never let him have access to the nuke codes. It's all been a game between these two toddlers to see how far they could push one another and who will be the one to triumph over the other. I knew the closer we got to the actual date of the summit that we would start to see Trump back-pedal and make excuses to get out of it. I sense he was uneasy and unhappy with this entire deal. He doesn't trust KJU and didn't want to take a chance that he would fail at the summit and as you said...be made a fool of by the North Koreans. But, he sure rode that magic carpet up until the end for ratings that he "might" succeed. But, that is how he operates in most of his deals. Talks a big game and then blunders and walks away. I also sense that the leaders that truly put this meeting together are not too happy about it. He gave them no heads up about his move today with the letter. He'll likely hear from them "behind the scenes". And, yes, we did have coins made (paid for by taxpayers), but I respectfully believe that this entire summit was a FACADE for something bigger. Planned and organized by CHINA. Their ultimate aim is to take over NK and eventually more.
I think Trump had every intention of going thru with it because 1. he had the coins made 2. He thought he would get a Nobel Peace Prize from it.
Trump just doesn't understand how these things work. Kim would have held the meeting but likes to play games first. Trump was so afraid that Kim would cancel before he could and he would look stupid so he Thinks he beat Kim to the punch. His minds works in the mindset of I will get you before you get me.
I wonder how those 20 Republicans that nominated him for the Nobel Prize feel now.
I have some clear impressions now. I must warn that I get a small but significant chance of surprises, though. And surprises in this case can go all the way to military confrontation between US and North Korea. But that's definitely not the dominant timeline.
What I get for the dominant is that things go quiet for the next six months around North Korea. China and South Korea have been in talks with North Korea, and those talks will continue, but quietly and without making much public noise, if any noise at all. A broad agreement has been reached, leading to the eventual reunification of Korea, and baby steps will be taken towards it. North Korea won't be making any more nuclear tests during this time, because they've proven the points they wanted to prove already.
The main chance for surprises here comes from the relationship between South Korea and the US. South Korea is already economically in the sphere of influence of China, and is comfortable with that. But militarily, it's in the sphere of influence of the US. This is something that bothers China a lot, because it puts American missiles too close to Chinese territory for their comfort. Part of the agreement is that South Korea will endeavor to reduce American military presence in their soil, which will please both China and North Korea. It's from the current White House reactions to those attempts that surprises may come.
Bear in mind that even though North Korea is likely to go quiet, the Middle East is still very likely to become a major war zone. And that the possibility of WWIII triggered by events in the Middle East hasn't gone away. I got a strong confirmation of this. And in a WWIII scenario, Korea would be one of the battlefields. But it wouldn't enter the fray until a confrontation between US and Russia is well under way.
I just got this feeling. Not a high-probability event, but dangerous enough to say. I see a limited nuclear exchange between North Korea and the United States, specifically Hawaii, happening while the summit is going on. I'm unclear about who starts it or why, but the impression I get is that the decision doesn't come from the top, but somebody goes rogue while the leaders are at the summit. Again, this probably won't happen, but I'm saying just in case.
My base case scenario at this point in time is the one I wrote on the first post of this thread.
Maria it is good to know that the possibility of nuclear exchange is low even though you can pick up on it as a possible future. The thing that popped into my head was that maybe the possibility is higher because this is sort of uncharted territory, a US president hasn't met with a North Korean leader in a long time. I imagine tensions are higher than normal in this situation. Everyone is tense and maybe someone thinks they should be some sort of hero or some kind of protector of their leader or their country. Trump and his people have said inflammatory things already and they don't act the way a normal US president or administration normally would so that may make the North Koreans more nervous than say when Bill Clinton visited in 2009 with Kim Jong Il. The mentioning of the Libya model for treatment of NK by Bolton is an example of extremely aggressive talk by this administration. All the talk of who has the bigger nuclear button and "little rocket man" stuff hasn't helped either. I hope cooler heads prevail!!!
I've seen some people on the Internet making comments as if it's all over and the North Korean talks have been a great success. Just to clarify, this was just the beginning. USA and North Korea have simply agreed to start a new round of negotiations. Trump and Kim got a photo op and signed a document that binds them to nothing except things they have already said. Most of the negotiations have yet to come.