Currently I am not sure what to think or believe any more, Ukraine seems to trigger something:-(
But after Trump has gone I was thinking that now will come a time that one by one all dictators will fall(in a way Trump acted as he was a dictator). Russia , Brazil, China, Middle-East, Poland, Hungary etc
Regarding your questions:
- Does anyone have any predictions for the future of Hong Kong and Tibet? Will China back away?
- Not on a short term, In general, until the end of this century the China as we know now might disappear in smaller ( still large in population) countries like Mongolia, Tibet And Quandong ( plus Hongkong and Macau)
- Will China's economic growth continue and will it overtake the United States?
- I think there will be a very bad recession, also due to China´s support of Russia, in our company we let now all metalwork produce in South-Korea and not China . And the war is a wakeup all that we need to keep production in our own countries as well. With the oil prices it will not be that cheap any more to produce in China.
- And with a declining economy , people will be suffering , and eventually protest
- Will the relationship with the West and China be repaired in the future?
- In 10 to 15 years, first we might see an iron curtain in China again, when people start protesting the a revolution
- But by then I hope that Russia is a democracy, part of NATO ( I really believe this) and we will have a better way that the world lives together. But maybe that is only a dream ...
- Will China return to its spiritual roots?
- The now 15 - 30 years old will rediscover the old values ( also seen in South-Korea and Japan) , not the wrong old way ( Like one ruler, strict hierarchies), but the spiritual roots.
These are of course just my thoughts on China, woudl be very interesting what other thinks
@tbs thank you for taking the time to answer my questions.
I think it is indeed sad that the world has to suffer more pain before it begins to find a new way forward that is more inclusive, democratic and free. I feel sad for the people who are going to suffer (or are suffering) because of dictators who are hell bent on seeing through their expansion of power and dominance, over democracy and freedom.
But I do live in hope, that those old power structures such as China and Russia that have all the attributes of the old former Empires of the past, will emerge into something better as we enter this new paradigm shift. Even the UK wil emerge as something different in coming years.
I would really like to see a revamp of the United Nations similar to what occured after WW2. We need to create a new framework and come up with better solutions for how we can globally work together better to preserve freedom and peace, but also tackle injustices such as food shortages, medical aid, climate change etc. We also need a better golobal initiative to tax oil and gas companies so that we can invest this back into cleaner energy infrastructure, rather than taxing people even more and allowing these companies to price gauge and exploit them as well (which is happening right now).
I have gotten a bit off-topic, but I guess it is hard not see China and Russia not as one, especially when they both share and create similar aspirations and implications on the world and their people.
@luminous Through quick scans, I have been getting that China will back off from Taiwan and Hong Kong. I saw that the Cultural Revolution will be reversed and the ancient culture of benevolence, virtue, and Confucianism will come back. The relationship between China and the US will be repaired. In fact, I do see President Xi falling from office as early as this year.
@enkasongwriter thank you for doing that. I don't know if anyone here is from Hong Kong or Taiwan, but I hope that bit of information will hopefully ease some of their concerns.
Important to remember that Xi is not Putin - i.e., he's not a psychopath and not cynical. He really does what he believes in.
What I believe/feel is that China will make a big show of their military exercises for a couple of weeks and then will back off.
A vision I had a long time ago involved a young Iranian woman getting into a bed, in her full chador, with Kim Jong-Un. Another vision I had around the same time was Washington DC in ruins, with many military people from another country, all Asian, in charge of things.
I think combined these visions speak to how the autocracies are, for the first time in history, uniting in different ways to bring down the US and West and dominate globally. So even though right now Russia, China, and Iran are being very secrety cooperative, Russia and China both do not want Iran to gain the upper hand, neither does the US.
So I think China will not really attack Taiwan, and I agree with what @enkasongwriter said a few months back.
Thanks for sharing @laura-f
I have a friend in Taiwan, I have asked them quite a lot about China and Taiwan. I said to them "aren't you scared that you would lose all the benefits of your current modern healthcare and democracy?" - but she seemed to think it didn't matter if China took Taiwan, and that it would take many years to change. I didn't voice my concern anymore to her, because she takes a very Pro China view, and seems to be unaware and unconcerned of the ramifications, but obviously I can't help but feel concerned.
It is a shame to see what is happening, I thought at one stage before Xi Jinping came along in 2013, that his predecessor, Hu Jintao, had actually made efforts to make China more Westernised. When Xi Jinping came in, the whole nationalism movement took over more with a very aggressive Pro China political strategy - I think this is also when many internationals living in China started to notice they were no longer welcome and unable to study and live there like before under Hu Jintao.
I hope one day China returns to a less aggressive nationalist stance, and we can all work together in the world to tackle global issues such as climate change, food shortages, and renewable energy technologies.
@luminous I had a thought that maybe your Taiwanese friend is being circumspect in their email messages in case of monitoring. You just never know.
Hi @maggieci
I think it is more because some of her family is from mainland China and they are more sympathetic to China's view on Taiwan.
I have been kind of distant with her the last week or so because I found it difficult to agree with some of those things she was talking about. I didn't want to say anymore to her so we haven't spoken. I just did not want to create any arguments, especially since it isn't my life or culture (who am I to have an opinion on something I know very little about?).
To give another perspective on the poltical problems with China (and this is only ancedotal), a family from Hong Kong recently moved in next door to my sister. They moved to the UK to escape the growing political situation in Hong Kong with China. This was made possible due to the UK allowing a special Visa grant for people in Hong Kong wanting to leave Hong Kong. I don't know the full details but it makes it easier for them to apply for citizenship here.
I think there is a lot more brewing in the background than we realise in the West. I have heard there also might yet be more economic turbulence for China concerning the property investment bubble.
@luminous Thank you for asking this question. I am from Taiwan so the reading does help ease the anxiety. There are two major political parties, one pro China and the other pro independence. The pro independence party has won the last several elections, which tells you what the majority think. Taiwanese people have this resilient, irrepressible streak in their spirit so it will take bloodshed for China to take it over by force. The small island has thrived despites China's attempt to isolate the country. I hope the people will be all right.