It isn't Only sea level rise itself that is the only question we need to answer. Sea level rise will swamp our cities and cause global chaos. But rising seas are just one effect of climate change. Along with rising seas we will experience changes in the natural world that we can't even imagine and don't want to imagine.
Eventually we will begin to discuss and envision what lies ahead for us on this planet. But for now, I would like to understand the speed at which climate change is happening.
Last night, for the second time in a month, I dreamt about rising seas in New England. In the first dream (which I posted about in this forum) I was told that local sea levels here would rise 3-4 feet by 2030. The environmental nonprofit where I work occupies an office on a forested hill about 40 feet above Cape Cod Bay, and there's a walking trail that heads from our parking lot down to the shore. In last night's dream, I was standing at the beach-end trailhead (which is normally about 4 feet above the high tide line), and increasingly energetic waves were forcing me to walk backwards back up the hill. The entire beach was inundated with water, and even the leading edge of the forest was starting to be submerged. I got the sense that this surge was a unique event, possibly caused by a nor'easter combined with a king tide, but that it was a harbinger of soon-to-be permanent conditions.
Oddly, I was not alarmed at all in my dream. Rather, I was relieved, and was thinking, "this will change peoples' attitudes."
@coyote Most people don't understand the catastrophic implications of sea level rising to 4 feet by 2030. As you know, seas are rising at an accelerating rate so that means that not only are seas rising a certain amount each year but the rate of the rise is accelerating. We need to know that exponent in order to get a number for later years.
Does anyone here, maybe you, Coyote, know how to calculate what 4 feet SLR in 2030 means for the change in acceleration? The current sea level rise in 2018 over 1993 levels was 3.1 mm per year which was a doubling of the rate over the last century. Your dream, if correct, means a new rate of acceleration, and I would like someone to calculate what that would be. I don't have that mathematical ability and couldn't find an online calculator.
4 feet <=> 1219,2 mm In 11 years, means an average of 110 mm per year . 110/3,1 = 35,7 fold increase .
The collapse of a single unstable glacier in Antartica or Greenland could provide this increase . If it happens suddenly it could send waves across the oceans .
The complete melting of Greenland and Antarctica could increase sea level by as much as 250 feet . Funding for climate change research is gravely depleted . Tipping points are plausible and out of scope of most studies .
Please consider not having property below 300 feet . I don't.
@the beast Thank you for that calculation. 37 times the most recent figures would be mind boggling if it’s correct. Hope it is wrong!
The reason I am focusing on the speed of sea level rise is that it can be one measure of how quickly all of the other natural systems are dissembling.
as a change in rate, it looks to me to be more than doubling every year for 10 years.
taking the first year at .31, and a rate of increase of 214.935% YOY, the subsequent years increases are:
| 0.67 |
| 1.43 |
| 3.08 |
| 6.62 |
| 14.22 |
| 30.56 |
| 65.69 |
| 141.19 |
| 303.48 |
| 652.28 |
the sum of those 10 years being 1219.22 mm.
sorry, got that decimal wrong.
so for 3.1mm (not .31) as the first year,
the change in the rate of SLR increases 165.813% every year for 10 years,
the subsequent years being:
| 5.14 |
| 8.52 |
| 14.13 |
| 23.43 |
| 38.86 |
| 64.43 |
| 106.83 |
| 177.14 |
| 293.72 |
| 487.02 |
and the sum of 10 years being 1219.22 mm.
I believe it simply depends on how high the land is. In a place that is at sea level for many miles inland a five foot sea level rise will extend the water inland until the land exceeds 5 feet. Also vulnerable are low lying areas near rivers near the sea. In Massachusetts, the land where Harvard University and M.I.T. is located is several miles inland from the Atlantic Ocean but these areas are low lying and will be inundated by the overflowing of the Charles River that flows into Boston Harbor. They are as vulnerable as any land right next to the coast.
Check out this NOAA interactive sea level map that shows what happens as seas rise https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/0/-11581024.663779823/5095888.569004184/4/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion
Saltwater intrusion, and freshwater access will be problems for those just inland too. I tried to remote view an area in Florida 10 years from now. I saw dry wells, or rusted wells. I am not sure exactly.