Some indications in hurricane prediction models and ensembles (gfs/euro) of a weak tropical cyclone trying to form in the east pacific or northwest Caribbean and move into the eastern gulf, lots of uncertainty, but at the very least increased chances of rain and some gusty winds for Florida in about a week
Well, we can certainly use the rain, having had almost none for several weeks in North Central Florida.
I also love to watch hurricanes though not as up-close as you do. I like to go out on the porch and watch the drama unless it gets *too* dramatic. Living inland, we are pretty safe from most winds and floods except for falling trees-- but I got my trees all trimmed up last month and there is plenty of non-perishable food in the house in case the power goes out . All the recent storms in the midwest and South have gotten me a little spooked but I still think we're good. The last serious hurricane here was Francis in 2004.
@ana I remember Frances and Jeanne hurricanes of 2004 lots of gusts to hurricane force here! It’s good you are inland and safe from the strongest winds. The weather models now bring a tropical storm towards Florida somewhere between the big bend and the southern peninsula in 7 to 10 days so rain chances going up and also windy. The water of the gulf is 10 degrees above normal and the ocean heat content is high- so there is a chance of some rapid intensification, if shear can drop low enough. We will see but watching closely. Jeanne Mayell mentioned many gulf storms rapidly intensifying and the last 2 hurricanes to impact me (Hurricane Ian category 5 and Hurricane Idalia Category 4) underwent rapid intensification. Shear may prevent that intensification in this system but certainly by August and September many gulf systems will have the conditions needed to rapidly intensify.
@navinsinghmedgmail-com thanks for The info. do you have any links For the weather models? I’m curious to know what goes into those Projections and who’s making them. I promise we will get around to doing some meditation on it.
Yes two big models- for the euro model for hurricanes and rain for the gulf;
for gfs model for hurricanes:
I'm in Vero Beach this morning. Will be heading down to Ft. Lauderdale soon to catch the Disney Magic. As we are watching local news at breakfast in the hotel, they are calling for 5-15 inches of rain from this system. Glad we'll be sailing before then.
Living in a hurricane prone area, I'll attest to the usefulness of tropical tidbits.
@cindy Message to South Florida: If you'd like to direct some of that rain a few hundred miles north, we would be grateful for it. :-)
@navinsinghmedgmail-com Thanks for the links, which I will read. I also found this info from NOAA,that predicts a warmer than average ocean temps. (I had already "seen" these high ocean temperatures would be the driving force for a strong hurricane season), but NOAA confirmed it.
They also pointed out that the current El Nina in the Pacific will add to greater hurricanes (because el Nina's produce less wind shear. (Wind shear stops hurricanes from forming).
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season