Did climate change happen before in Earth's pre-history and if so, does it forecast what could now lie ahead?
“You put more CO2 in the atmosphere and you get more warming, that’s just super-simple physics that we figured out in the 19th century,” says David Naafs, an organic geochemist at the University of Bristol. “But exactly how much it will warm by the end of the century, we don’t know. Based on our research of these ancient climates, though, it’s probably more than we thought.”
Last week, Naafs and colleagues released a study in Nature Geoscience that reconstructs temperatures on land during this ancient high-CO2 hothouse of the late Paleocene and early Eocene epochs.
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I'm familiar with this line of thinking, and it's rather worrying, because it's more likely to be accurate than all the climate modelling. The Earth knows better than any model.
One interesting thing, whenever the Earth has warmed, the poles have warmed a lot more than the Equator. So the further North (or South) you live, the greater will be the expected changes in climate.
I can't help but believe that extraordinary times will call forth extraordinary resilience, and extraordinary creativity to cope with the situation. Which is not to say it won't suck for some--but it's a necessary challenge on the road for human evolution. R1
R1 I glad you can’t help but be optimistic. And I agree with you. Humans always have pulled through. We will find a way.
I also want to add that if you look back in history, humans came up with extraordinary solutions. And some solutions just happened. The defeat of the Spanish armada in 1588, hampered by a great storm, as they sailed in battle towards England. Hitler's curious decision not to wipe out the British army as it gathered trapped at Dunkirk. Discoveries that we can not now imagine may yet happen to help us through climate change. Nicolas Taleb, a mathematician in uncertainty theory, who wrote The Black Swan, said we only know about 2 percent of what there is to know. One thing is for sure, we are highly motivated to come up with solutions.
Also, although science shows what will likely happen in our climate as we zoom towards 1000 parts per million atmospheric carbon, we don't know what will actually happen. A super volcanic explosion could cool the earth long enough to buy more time. Good people are working on the problem.
This is where I'm placing my bets:
One of the best-kept secrets in the world today is that the solution to global warming and the climate crisis (as well as poverty and deteriorating public health) lies right under our feet, and at the end of our knives and forks. “Regenerative Agriculture” describes farming and grazing practices that, among other benefits, reverse climate change by rebuilding soil organic matter and restoring degraded soil biodiversity – resulting in both carbon drawdown and improving the water cycle. Science says that we can actually reverse climate change by increasing soil carbon stocks.
Thank you Runestone ?
I am very interested in the soil and how to rebuild it. I try to do that in my modest piece of land. But I wasn't aware that the link between soil and climate was so important and I find that comforting (and poetic). I will read more about it.
Jeanne, I don't think that comparing fighting climate change with winning a naval battle is appropriate. OK, maybe I'm a little sensitive over that particular naval battle since I had to study the English version of it to pass my UK citizenship test. ;-)
There are already a number of ideas to cool off the Earth. But it would be frightening if we had to employ them. Who would you trust with the power of controlling the Earth's climate?
Returning carbon to the soil can help somewhat, but as long as we keep burning fossil fuels, we are just adding to the problem faster than we are fixing it.
Maria, I agree, and you are Spanish, and my ancestors are half Spanish, half Scottish - so what was I thinking? lol It came to me only because of remembering Cate Blanchett, who I love, pacing the floor as the Spanish Armada bore down on her Elizabeth I.
My point is that there are unknowns that could helps us out. And it's impossible to imagine something that we don't know about yet.
When we read the future, we can't imagine something we don't have a point of reference for. So we can only try to see if we can see us still around in 300 years. I've tried that in meditation and I've had visions of people still here.
Oh, there's definitely people around on Earth for thousands of years in the future. I'm not worried at all about that.
What does worry me is that in some futures a lot of people appear to be pretty miserable, going hungry pretty often and not feeling safe. Which is why you have to try to think now how that could happen, and what could be done to stop it from happening.