Ian is now forecast to slow down quite a lot as he nears Tampa Bay. Looking at the tracking maps, it looks like the movement on Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday could be less than 100 miles in 12 hours. This may be very bad for the Tampa Bay area because the storm surge will be pushing water in the bay for 24 hours or more. Furthermore, the track now has Ian making landfall just north of Tampa Bay, putting the bay on the right-hand side of the storm. The right hand side is the worst for storm surge because of the counter-clockwise circulation of the winds. The bay is shallow and surrounded by urbanization. A lot of built up areas will be flooded, barring a change in Ian's course and/or predicted speed. There is a mandatory evacuation order in place for coastal Pinellas County (St Pete, Clearwater, Tarpon Springs etc.) ( https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2022/09/26/pinellas-officials-urge-evacuation-ahead-ian-get-out-right-now/
I think Tampa Bay is the area that's going to need the most help, in whatever form.
Track and cone of uncertainty may be viewed at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/223342.shtml?cone#contents
I know it's crazy but I love these storms. Obviously they can mess with the well-being of humans and the built environment, but in themselves they have an beautiful, rejuvenating, cleansing energy. And they serve to remind us of the awesome power of nature. I like to sneak out briefly and feel the wind and the rain, watch the treetops blow around, and take in some of the energy when it's not dangerously intense.
You are right, it is crazy. But i have always felt the same way about these storms. Just try to appreciate the rarity and the rawness of the moment- if you survive, there will be plenty of time to worry about how bad the house and car got trashed in the months and years afterwards.
As a surfer kid, these storms were the only times there would be like, actual California type waves on the Gulf Coast. My parents would have been horrified, had they known why i was always so interested in watching the weather report.
One of my nieces has just moved to Tampa, with her kids. Now i kind of know how worried my parents must have felt. But i also hope that she will take a moment to just breathe it all in.
@ana, I also love the storms and love going out in them. I wish you good protection in this one.
I have family all around Tampa on the coast. In my life, from early childhood onwards, I spent more vacation time on Clearwater Beach than any other. The authorities have totally evacuated Clearwater Beach.
But one family member texted me at 3:45 am. He is driving home from a vacation right into the storm, to secure his home. He's just outside the evacuation area, so he says he's not worried. I’d be concerned though if I were him because this is do-nothing Florida which is not much different than Texas in its rampant development and lack of concern for the environment and anyone there than the very wealthy.
Praying for protection to all in Florida and hopes that the only things that are adversely effected are the reputations of Ron Deathsentence, Rick Scott, and the rest of the Florida cronies who passed a rule a few years ago that no government employee can use the term "global warming."
@unk-p, @ana, I live on the NC coast. We call it hurricane alley here. I'm south of the outer banks, but we get hit just as often as the OBX which comprise 2/3rds of our coastline. I've been through more storms than I can remember. I've stayed through most, even a handful that were so destructive their names were then retired. I live on a peninsula so I'm surrounded by water on 3 sides. River is to my west by half a mile, intercoastal & Atlantic to my south & east by 1.5 - 2.5 miles. It is amazing to watch these storms roll in. They all have unique personalities. Some are mostly bluster, while others are all rain, & there are some which are an incredible combination of both. Longtime locals know what to do, when to stay & when to go. People with relatives inland leave more frequently, where those who don't & those with pets tend to stay. It helps making the decision to evacuate knowing the wind rating of your home. Mine was rated to 130 mph when it was built (top end of Cat 3). The surfers love the storms coming in. Even those which are far off shore & never come close will pick up wave heights here. I typically watch in awe, but there have been a few that have rattled me. I have a cousin who lives most of the year in Ft. Meyers Beach (summers are spent north in Rehobeth Beach), and my aunt is in a nursing facility in St. Petersburg. My cousin is anxious being north while her ailing mom is currently on the cusp of manditory evacuation areas.
I, too, have loved storms but echoing Lovendures, I urge Floridians not to be sanguine about this one. The NOAA maps anticipate a storm surge of 6-8 ft in some areas, which, on top of a slow storm dumping many inches of rain will not show the extent of danger. Responders will be overwhelmed so leave if you are in the path of this storm.
I was glad that this public official didn't mince words:
As far as natural hazards go, hurricanes are polite. Unlike tornadoes or earthquakes, they give you ample advance warning of their arrival and time to prepare and/or evacuate. Ignoring the warnings is the thing that usually kills people.
Having had a child in the Air Force and stationed at MacDill AFB USSOCOM I know they take these things seriously. They have already evacuated planes, and airmen and NASA has moved Artemis back in from launchpad to assembly hangar. When my child was there... as an USAF parent I was signed on to house up 4 airmen if needed during evacuation periods... being a normally 7 hours drive straight up I-75.
"MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, has issued an “installation-wide mandatory evacuation” by Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET for “non-mission essential individuals, including uniformed service members” and dependents, the facility said on its Twitter account on Monday."
MacDill Air Force Base has about 6,000 military and civilian personnel, according to the base's website.
If you have ever visited the base you know it's prone to flooding and a storm like Ian? With 10+ plus storm surge? Will inundate it.
It is a very large storm and will strength as it swirls in the gulf before coming ashore...before coming up through Georgia.
My thoughts are? Be prepared for the worst and pray/hope for the best. In Florida? finish prep today... in Georgia get going and start if you haven't already. Tho since we have a lot of monster tornadoes.. most of us keep a Bug Out Bag and emergency supplies for tornadoes or winter weather that shuts things down.
Stay safe everyone... have a feeling Ian will be a doozie!
Not storms , but I love setting out on the porch, and watching it rain. I like smelling the coming rain.
So many folks here have once lived near Tampa Bay.
And a couple weeks ago some expressed opinions that that whole area needed a good cleansing.
I think that wish is about to manifest... and not just by cleaning some condos off the beach (where they never should have been built), but water really is a spiritual cleansing agent and disasters tend to reset people's priorities. ( witness COVID for example)
Let's hope this is the last one that applies to Cc21's vision.
I am sensing a strong hurricane. It may not make landfall, but there is concern about it being one to watch (Florida, up along east coast and the Carolinas area.) (CC21) Predicted 9/1/22 for September 2022.
Reporting on Ian from my relatively secure observation platform in North Central Florida:
Ian now has 155 mph winds and is about to make landfall in the Ft.Myers/Charlotte Harbor area as a high-end Cat 4 producing a 12-15 foot storm surge. His predicted track and strength are identical to Hurricane Charley's in 2004. Charley was a disaster for the Charlotte Harbor area. They had many vulnerable prefab and mobile homes on the waterfront. Hopefully that is not the case now, what with the most vulnerable structures being destroyed and HOPEFULLY not rebuilt. (I am not up on whether they changed the local building codes, but I hope they did.) Orlando lost power for days and had a lot of downed trees and damaged roofs. Charley wasn't a big deal at my place -- some wind and rain and small branches down, some flooding (from rain) in low-lying areas, that's all. There were no widespread or long-lived power outages. However. Charley was a compact storm with a small windfield. Ian is NOT compact. His effects will be more widely felt. I expect more at my place than from Charley, but nothing severe.
Current conditions in North Central Florida: Cool, breezy and overcast.
It is too soon to completely assess Ian's effect on SW Florida, but this video of mobile homes being ripped apart gives an idea. (I wonder what kind of vehicle these guys are filming from? An army surplus tank? 😳 )
Up here at the safe observation post we are experiencing off-and-on rain, and near-constant winds sometimes gusting up to 40-50 mph. The treetops are blowing around, but so far I haven't seen anything but twigs and a few dead palm fronds come down in the yard and street. The power is on. This is supposed to continue for the rest of the day.
The weird thing is that it's chilly. Temps went down below 60 degrees last night whereas in the days before the lows were around 70. Usually tropical systems mean tropical temperatures. Neither I nor my husband have ever experienced a cold hurricane, and we've seen a lot of storms.
As I noted earlier, my cousin & her husband live in Fort Myers Beach, the barrier island off shore from Fort Myers & the island just to the south from Sanibel. Mary Ellen & Tom were at their place in Rehobeth Beach when the storm arrived, so they haven't been home yet. She sent me video officials took & posted on you tube for residents. It's clearly marked not for broadcast, so at this time I won't post a link, but even without close up footage, the island is devastated, as is Mary Ellen. Unlike many, her home was built on stilts, so hopefully the garage areas were the only part that went under. We can spot her roof on the video, but we can't see if there is much damage to the house. She's been told it may be weeks before they are allowed back on the island to assess things. Her friend that stayed is ok, but there is no power, cell service, or water available, so information (along with inability to travel because of debris) is scarce. It will be a long road to recovery. Gut says Deathsentence will pay a price for his handling of this because of his actions before & after the storm. Not sure if this means there's more he's done besides the Martha's Vineyard stunt in the mishandling of FL funds, or putting off things that he could have/ should have dealt with but chose not to because being seen (like the antics after Roe v Wade) was more important to him.
As I type, the wind & rain outside here is making enough noise for the dogs to sit up & take notice. Ian will make a second landfall to the south of me, but we have all sorts of tropical, flood, & surge warnings up, along with hurricane watches. I'm sure tornado watches will be added to the list as the day progresses. Since yesterday I've felt it would come ashore farther north than predicted, & so far they keep adjusting the track northward. Only time will tell how much closer to NC it will come.
@cindy Oh dear. Ft. Myers Beach got hit very, very badly. Just prior to logging in here, I saw a helicopter-view video on cnn.com:
I think your cousin's friend who stayed is lucky to be alive!
I feel it is a bad idea for anyone to try to rebuild there. It is the inherent nature of barrier islands to move and shift and change, and it's only going to get worse as sea level rises.
Since Ian is just a Cat 1, it's likely only the immediate coastline will suffer any significant damage from waves and storm surge. but as you mentioned, there are those tornadoes to watch out for. (Tornadoes scare me, hurricanes don't because generally there's time to get out of the way.)
Stay safe and evacuate if you're on a barrier island or otherwise very close to the coast!
Gut says Deathsentence will pay a price for his handling of this because of his actions before & after the storm.
You have a trustworthy gut, so this is good news. 🙂
@ana, yes, Fort Myers Beach got nailed. I had a hunch this morning that I needed to look for my cousin's home in photos or videos. I had been out shopping the day before Ian hit and as I was thinking of my cousin, I looked up and saw a full circle rainbow around the sun. Took several pics on my way home as it didn't dissipate quickly. That to me was a sign that things for her would be ok. So this morning, in the first video I saw, I spotted her house. I took a screenshot and sent it to her. It looks good, surprisingly. She was worried about mold, since they can't get on the island to do anything. But when I looked at the pic, I could see her driveway, the grass, her short white vinyl picket fence, and most of the house behind hers in her backyard. She and her husband could see what I was saying, that there probably was water, but unlike most of the island, we could see grass in the pic instead of sand-so what water had come in either wasn't deep enough to deposit sand, wasn't there long enough, or both. There is little to no debris in the front yard, so the fence didn't act as a filter for swift running water, leaving debris caught in it, or taking down the fence. The roof is intact, we couldn't see anything hanging. So most likely any mold would only be if there's a window out, or on the ground level-which is all garage and storage-not main living areas. She's one of the few that is on stilts on her street. I get the gut feeling she's in rather good shape compared to most there. She's also blessed in having two homes. My uncle (Mary Ellen's father) and Tom (Mar's husband) had opened a restaurant on the DE coast decades ago, along with a seafood shop in Ocean City, MD. Mar ran the seafood shop, Uncle Terry ran the restaurant. They'd close the shop in the winter, and she and Tom would spend winter's in FL, only returning for the tourist season. Since selling both businesses and Tom's retirement from his job, they still spend summers north where it's cooler, and return in late fall to FL. So, while they get the house in FL fixed, they still will have a home to utilize-even if it's north in the winter. Many won't have that option. She was in tears during our texting, but they were good tears. I could feel some stress exiting, and some hope replacing it. I'm sure it will be a true rollercoaster of emotions for all on the island for some time. Life as they knew it will never be the same.
It is too soon to completely assess Ian's effect on SW Florida, but this video of mobile homes being ripped apart gives an idea. (I wonder what kind of vehicle these guys are filming from? An army surplus tank? 😳 )
I watched that video last night and it was horrifying how storms have escalated during climate change. Science predicted these super storms would happen and it's only the beginning of what we will be seeing down the road. On a positive note, the commentators were hilarious.
For anyone who thinks that Ian's power is a fluke, that it's not a product of global warming, scientists have documented for decades that the power of these storms is squarely due to human-caused fossil fuel driven climate change.
It's ironic that former Florida governor Rick Scott and his many "descendants" passed a rule ten years ago that state employees were forbidden to utter or write the words Global Warming. They were trying to please their GOP fossil fuel donors and delude residents that global warming (human caused, fossil fuel driven) existed.
But the intensity of this storm, and the many future storms, is driven by the climate-change driven escalation of the waters surrounding Florida.
Warm water is fuel to these storms. They escalate more quickly to larger and faster from the warm waters. The Gulf of Mexico has always been warm. I used to play in it as a child in the late 1950's and in late summer, it was always like bath tub water. But now, it's more like soup and eventually it will be like a hot tub. On September 28, the Gulf of Mexico around Florida was more than 87 degrees!
The seas have absorbed 90 percent of the heat generated by Global Warming.
Check out this NY Times story. If you hit a paywall, I will provide some excerpts. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/29/climate/hurricane-ian-florida-intensity.html
When I read about a 78 year old Fort Meyers women who chose to stay in her home, I was so angry that the poor woman did not understand how dangerous hurricanes are now becoming. Oh I know we can all point to some famous hurricane in 1950's 60's and 70's. But we are in a new era now. @ana's video shows a glimpse of what we will be increasingly seeing.
How many people will have to die before they stop watching Fox Fossil Fuel News or put their faith in GOP liars?
An elderly relative in Orlando who was spared the worst of this storm wrote this to me this morning. They all have friends in the worst hit areas and they are pretty freaked out right now.
"There have been many heartfelt stories of neighbors helping neighbors. Several volunteer rescue groups have rescued people who risked drowning in the Naples and Fort Meyers areas. We got nowhere near the death and destruction that Ian delivered in Southwest Florida. My niece and nephew are the exception: the first floor of their home is essentially submerged. My niece woke up in the middle in the night and stepped into a few inches of water.