I was reading Heather Cox Richardson's post this morning and the song "Joshua fit the battle of Jericho, Jericho, Jericho.. Joshua fit the battle of Jericho and the walls came tumbling down" Historical note.. looked it up after that " "Joshua Fit the Battle of Jericho" is a well-known African-American spiritual. The song is believed to have been composed by slaves in the first half of the 19th century. Some references suggest that it was copyrighted by Jay Roberts in 1865. In 1882, the song was published in Jubilee Songs by M."
Well T and company lost. A federal judge has sided with Bolton
A federal judge on Saturday denied the Trump administration an emergency temporary restraining order to block the release of former national security advisor John Bolton’s book, "The Room Where It Happened."
The big picture: Copies of the book already leaked to a number of media outlets and its biggest claims have been widely published, including Bolton's allegation that President Trump asked Chinese President Xi Jinping to increase agricultural purchases from the U.S. in order to improve his electoral prospects in farm states.
Defendant Bolton has gambled with the national security of the United States. He has exposed his country to harm and himself to civil (and potentially criminal) liability. But these facts do not control the motion before the Court. The government has failed to establish that an injunction will prevent irreparable harm."
https://apple.news/Axdow3EmpRGyr9MNRCTzIvA
@tgraf66 I disagree respectfully. The EC reflects the popular vote to some extent. If the popular vote is big enough this time around, (And, I think it will be.) the EC will be just a formality as it usually is. The KEY is turnout. Democrats MUST turnout in record numbers. I think they will based on the explosion of protests the day after T's inauguration in every state in the country and abroad. AND the stunning mid-terms. One of Hillary's problems was that people believed that she had it in the bag to the extent that it wasn't all that important to VOTE. I don't know a single person this time around who will take this election for granted. In addition, Trump is losing numbers even among so-called Evangelical voters (Down 10 points). He's losing among Seniors in Florida. If those polls continue through to October, he's done.
Posted by: @seeker4
@tgraf66 I disagree respectfully. The EC reflects the popular vote to some extent. If the popular vote is big enough this time around, (And, I think it will be.) the EC will be just a formality as it usually is. The KEY is turnout. Democrats MUST turnout in record numbers. I think they will based on the explosion of protests the day after T's inauguration in every state in the country and abroad. AND the stunning mid-terms.
The popular vote was big enough last time, and we still got what we have. Formality or not, there are a few issues with the EC, as I'm sure you're aware. First, it's outdated, outmoded, and paternalistic and needs to be abolished or *heavily* modified. The second problem is gerrymandered districting that keeps many states from being as blue as they could/should be. Even record blue turnouts in such districts are not likely to make much difference since they are, by design, red districts.
The third, related to the second, is that most states still use the "winner take all" model to allocate EC votes, so all that's needed for the R's in those states is to win the majority in the gerrymandered districts, and the whole state goes red regardless of the true will of the people in those states. While this can be beneficial for both sides in any election, it's still not equitable. I'm certain that there are R districts in the heavily blue states like CA and NY that are just as disenfranchised as the D's are in red states.
Unfortunately, there's little that can be done about the first two problems. Solving the first will require a Constitutional amendment or convention, but for now we have what we have, and we have to deal with it. Any solution to the second is hampered by state-controlled districting, although some small progress has been made in that area. North Carolina (and I think one or two others?) has been forced into more fair districts, so that will be a bit more of a battleground, but I'm not sure how much. Still, unless such redistricting is forced through in state-by-state court battles - or better yet, federalized by amendment - that's not going to change anytime soon, either.
With regard to the third problem, after the 2016 election, several states made non-binding coalition agreements to award all electoral votes to the winner of the overall popular votes in those states. The idea was that if they could get enough states to agree to this such that there were 270 EC votes tied up in them, they could essentially decide the election with just those states. I don't think they managed to get that many in the end, but if the states involved do hold to the agreements that were made, it will definitely be an improvement in terms of honoring the majority vote. However, I'm not a fan of disenfranchisement for anyone of any party, and doing it that way still lacks fairness.
Posted by: @seeker4
One of Hillary's problems was that people believed that she had it in the bag to the extent that it wasn't all that important to VOTE.
I would blame a lot of that on the mass media in 2016. The fact that a few major polls were heavily promoted across most news organizations in the six months before the election drilled home the view that Ms. Clinton would likely win. The media - deliberately or not - created cognitive bias by dismissing and/or ridiculing any polls that showed any possibility that the Orange One even had a chance, even though there were in fact polls saying that it was not only possible, but even likely. Now, in 2020, it's beginning to happen again with the over-promotion of a few polls touting Biden's rise and the Orange One's fall. Hope springs eternal, I suppose, but the definition of insanity still stands.
Posted by: @seeker4
I don't know a single person this time around who will take this election for granted.
Except for those who will again assume that there are enough intelligent people in the country to prevent it from happening again, as well as those who have already been and will continue to be victims of voter suppression, such as those in GA. In KY, the number of polling places has been reduced by nearly 95% from over 3700 to just over 200 for the entire registered voter population of over 3.5 million in the state.
Posted by: @seeker4
In addition, Trump is losing numbers even among so-called Evangelical voters (Down 10 points). He's losing among Seniors in Florida. If those polls continue through to October, he's done.
And you see, that's the problem. Polls are only as good as the honesty and integrity of the data behind them. There were many reports after 2016 that said that some if not many people who took part in the polls flat out lied in their responses, but the media is telling you that the polls say X! The polls say Y! The omnipotent, omniscient polls are sanctioned by us and therefore must be correct! Pfft. I mean no offense, but after the last four years, I'm not falling for that again.
I am - perhaps foolishly - still hopeful for the results, but there are still five more months before the showdown at the voting booth, and I will continue to tell people to ignore the polls and do their civic duty.
@tgraf66 I'm going to try to keep this short. If one uses a poll and believes it's a promise, that would be a mistake. Polls are indicators--moments in time, and they require interpretation and knowledge of the quality of different polling agencies. There are good ones, mediocre ones, and bad ones, but they make the news as if they are equal. Lumping all of them together as if they all equal the lowest common denominator really isn't fair. Further, the good polls account for "false responses". However, not wanting to follow any poll is a position I won't argue with. I am not arguing that you should by any means.
A couple of other points: Hillary's popular vote win wasn't enough by a long shot. Her biggest vote numbers were coming from specific areas and, therefore, not enough to effect the EC. She had very narrow losses in the battleground states. What I am saying now is that turnout needs to be so great that it overcomes the problems with the EC and the differences in how states select their delegates. If the turnout is great enough, it will overcome even gerrymandering enough to win. I know for a fact, that many who thought she had it in the bag, will definitely vote this time.
We totally agree about the EC. It is antiquated and needs to go.
In conclusion: I'm fine with anyone who doesn't want to follow polling as closely as I do, but my field was research so I wince at blanket statements that lump all polling groups into the lowest common denominator. Personally, I'm very interested in all of it: methodology (construction of survey questions), reliability, and on and on. That there is a ten point drop in White Evangelical Support for Trump is exciting to me. I'm aware that the poll captures a moment in time only. I'm not assuming that it will hold. I'm watching to see if it trends over time and across different polls. That poll suggests that their eyes might be opening regarding who Trump is. The question is: if judgeships look good again, will they continue to honor the Faustian deal they made. Or once their eyes are open, can they close them again?
May I serve you all a small plate of Schadenfreüde for Sunday brunch?
Rule #1 of Campaigning-FILL THE ROOM
Rule # 2 of Campaigning-FILL THE ROOM
@laura-f Rule No 3: After you only fill half of the room, lie about it.
#4 And if you say something self incriminating, just later tell people you were joking. Like you tell the country that you deliberately ordered a slowdown of covid testing, “When you do testing to that extent, you’re gonna find more people, you’re gonna find more cases. So I said to my people slow the testing down.” (Trump at Tulsa Rally)
The trump campaign just announced the next rally will be held at Chucky Cheese in Tupelo Mississippi. They are hoping for a sell out crowd!
He must be so mad from his embarrassment that his last tweet was 6hrs ago ?.
Someone wrote this:
These folks who ‘reserved’ the tickets for his rally yesterday, all they really did was get his hopes up for a million people to attend. Playing on his vanity.
Tickets didn’t reserve seats, they did nothing except help him collect phone numbers to beg from.
They did not take away seats from people who wanted to attend. Those people who showed up, that was it, total.
No one was kept from a seat by online ‘ticket reservations.’
He earned that crowd. And claiming lots of people were prevented from entering his big show by protesters, then why weren’t they still outside as his ‘overflow’ crowd?
When you only have a couple ounces of bullshit, you can only spread it so far....
1578 actual attendees. People are over his same old victim act. They are not looking for reruns of the Real Housewives of the WH from 4 years ago.
Since I had my vision of the anvil falling on Ts head right before his debacle at West Point, he has continued to be hammered.
As I said, it will continue downhill for him. He is a broken man. Events will occasionally look like like wins for him. And then it will fall to dodo. He's finished
Only 1578 attendees? I’d heard figures saying the stadium was half to two thirds full, but I didn’t realize the numbers were that sparse.
Under 6200. Read the previously attached. Many were hired actors from Craig's List.
Regardless, 6200 is very embarrassing to him. The venue holds over 19000.
I know actors who were hired here in NYC for his early events. They were never paid.
Is anyone else feeling the passing of an era right now? The Jupiter-Saturn conjunction at 0 degrees Aquarius on December 21 is exactly six months away, but I'm getting these waves now of loss and of sadness that we're not going back to the old comforts of our pre-pandemic lives.
There was so much that was wrong with that way of life, so much. But it's a bit like saying goodbye to childhood, as you step into adulthood. You're excited about what lies ahead, but you haven't lived it, so there's trepidation, you're not sure if you'll be able to handle it. And you miss the days when you weren't required to act, when everything was taken care of for you. Are we at the cusp of a similar transition for humanity?
Yes! I can definitely relate to this. The energy seems so sad right now - exactly like you said. Waves of loss about the fact that we won't be returning to the old way of life. I think my younger daughter is feeling this acutely as well. She has the hardest time sleeping (and has since lockdown) and everything hits her at night. We are working on some practical ways to help her cope, but it is so palpable right now. Also, our current weather (at least here in Michigan) is that hot, humid, stifling air, so that doesn't help the mood any. Feels like we are in the thick of things and awaiting a more positive shift. But loss definitely is the predominant feeling.
I feel so much of what you have both described, to the point where it is affecting me physically. Last night and this morning I felt horrible. I agree that the energy we're feeling is palpable. @cc21, I also agree that the hot, humid, stifling air doesn't help; we're experiencing that in Northern Virginia as well. It's not good for many of my health issues or my mood. I wish I was living in a dry, cold climate, but that's for another thread.
We're all trying to ride this wave the best we can, but it's not easy. I've been saying to myself "just take it a day at a time," but even that doesn't feel right ... maybe a "moment at a time" is more fitting right now. And perhaps we should consider focusing more on the rebuilding and Great Turning, rather than on the Unraveling? What kind of world do we want to live in? What actions can we take now to help make that happen? I do understand that we can't have the Great Turning without the Unraveling, and we are in the thick of things. What's that saying, the only way out is through? I just know that for me, I can get stuck and lose hope if I focus too much on the unraveling piece.
It's times like these, during these periods of upheaval, feelings of loss and isolation, that I am very grateful for this community. We will get through this.
Much love to all of you.
@jeanne-mayell @Lawrence Lying is his way of life. He's made this comment before about testing and he never looked to me like he was joking. Couple that with increased testing for himself and his staff while trying to diminish it for us. The attempt to say it was a joke also got him into more trouble because you don't joke about the pandemic when there are so many deaths. Lawrence's anvil is working hard to right this wrong.
I too feel the oppressiveness of the collective. Like you, I worry about what our lives will be like going forward.
But for some reason I am also feeling optimist. Because I am seeing things that seem to herald the end of Trump and the beginning of the GREAT REBUILDING!
Yes, Trump and the Republicans are still in control. Yes, after the 2016 election, we are rightfully concerned about voter suppression know that they will try to tilt the election in their favor.
Yet already I see events that suggest that they will fail. Badly.
First, consider the current state of the collective right now. So much has changed in such a short few months. Was it just February that the Republicans refused to have a hearing on Trump and gave him a free pass on corruption?
And now the economy has tanked, and many people are staying home due to fears of Covid 19. Those who did not take it seriously and called the virus a hoax are now facing record numbers of outbreaks in predominately red states. And in a few weeks (if the same scenario that occurred in New York occurs everywhere else), we will see many doctors beg for help while their morgues are overfilled with bodies and hospitals are scrambling for ventilators.
But yet I see hope. And it is because of people like us.
For years, we have suffered under Trump's rule. All of us. Consider the following:
1. Black Lives Matter-where is the Trump supporters? Shouldn't they be out protesting against Black Lives Matter? Shouldn't they be marching around with their guns and guarding the Confederate statutes? They certainly didn't mind protesting in Charlottesville a few years ago. But since George Floyd's death, they are AFRAID!!!! They saw the numbers of people who marched for this. They know that the population is angry, and that any violent actions on their part will be answered in kind. Racists are now being sought out and targeted with the same vigor that they themselves had gleefully hunted down their victims).
Notice that the Black Lives Matter has still not faced a pushback from the Republicans. Before, when people said "Blue Lives Matter," it was accepted, because it was meant to mean that you supported law enforcement and acknowledged that their lives were on the line. This movement helped to stifle any progress from the Black Lives Matter protests back in 2014 (Ferguson) because it freed conservatives from responsibility. They could say "Blue Lives Matter" and not be seen as racists.
Fast forward to 2020. Republicans can no longer hide behind "Blue Lives Matter." Now it is being seen as an excuse to carry on racist practices. Further, as Trump has hold-heartedly embraced the "law and order" persona without even attempting to understand the protesters' grievances, he has taken away any sympathetic voice to the police. The police are now being seen as being aligned with Trump, and it is killing their reputations with the public as a whole. The protesters are being smart when they say "All Lives Won't Matter until Black Lives Matter." Republicans now have no response to counter the knowledge that there is systematic racism in the justice system and reform is needed before this country can move forward.
Now, Republicans will ultimately push back. They will point out that Floyd had a criminal record. But while Floyd has become the rallying cry, this movement is not about him only. It is about all the other people who were killed unjustly, many of them who did not have a criminal record. So I expect some victim shaming in the months to come, and am preparing myself mentally to combat it.
2. Covid 19. Ah, the great equalizer! An opponent that Trump can't send his followers after with guns and threats. The red states, after months of mocking New York and others who suffered from the virus, are now finding their populations succumbing to the virus. It is becoming real to them now, and they will suffer greatly for it because they will not take precautions. Because of Trump, wearing a mask has become a political issue, so many will not wear one. Because of Evangelicals, many people will not wear a mask because by wearing one, you are basically saying you don't trust God to protect you, and thus you are not a Christian. So by going out in public without taking precautions, you are saying that your faith will protect you.
Uh...yeah? I am a Christian too, and I believe that while belief in God is paramount, God also cautioned against putting yourself in dangerous circumstances. Would you go into battle without body armor? Further, the sheer hypocrisy that conservatives say that they are protected by God to where they don't need masks yet feel the need to carry automatic rifles around for protection? How exactly is that putting your faith in God?
Needless to say, these two ways of thinking is already contributing to a huge spike in cases and deaths in the red states, and it is only beginning. I suspect that by August, many areas in rural America will feel the effects of the virus first hand and will suffer the aftermath of their negligence, while their Democratic neighbors will continue to take recommendations seriously and limit the affect that the virus will ultimately have on them.
3. Trump. He is his own worse enemy. Even if polls show Trump losing by twenty points, I predict that many anti-Trump voters will vote in November for two reasons. First, they are traumatized by the events of 2016, and they feel that they must vote, as voting Trump out has become literally a matter of life and death. (I doubt we would have had the number of deaths if Hillary were president. Heck, I think even Pence would have a slightly lower death toll, and that is saying a lot given his terrible record.) Remember that Democratic voters are motivated by fear. They are afraid of what will happen if Trump is re-elected.
Republican voters, on the other hand...not so much. How many of you have heard horror stories about what would happen if Biden became President besides the usual talking points from Fox News (becoming a socialist country, all Evangelicals hunted down, liberals ruling the world, etc.) It doesn't seem as real to them as it is to us. We have actual experiences where we can point out how Trump has effected our lives. But Republicans are having a hard time looking at Biden and saying "we suffered greatly when he was in charge!" When Biden was VP, they had a recovered economy and dealt with SARS with a minimum number of deaths. Few if any Republicans can honestly say that their lives were worse off when Biden had power, so they aren't motivated by fear. Also, many of them will buy into the "all the polls are wrong" and be complacent. They will have less motivation and thus will likely not come out to vote like Democrats will.
4. Attempts to limit voting.-Seriously, didn't Republicans learn already that this doesn't work? Didn't they already try this in Wisconsin? And now Kentucky is going to try this out? What do you think is going to happen when you close the voting polls. African American voters are still going to show up! And yet you risk the possibility that your own voters (typically white and elderly) will not show up due to fear of Covid 19. Further, as a good portion of Trump supporters are racist (they are, we know they are), they may be afraid to come to the poll booths if they know that the polling places have long lines of angry African American voters waiting to vote, especially given the mood of the nation right now.
5. Supreme Court. It is still too early for this one, but if the Supreme Court goes against abortion and against Trump on his taxes this week, then it is over for Trump. The Republicans will become demoralized that their plan to take over the Supreme Court didn't work (many will forget that other abortion cases are waiting in the wings, but that is a worry for another day), and Trump will be so upset about his taxes that he will devolve further and won't be able to focus on the election. Heck, he is barely functioning now!
So, while it seems that the country is falling apart, remember that we all seen that the collective would feel at it's lowest this year. Sometimes one needs to hit rock bottom before they can wake up and fix the problem. That "hitting rock bottom" is now, and we will come out of this stronger and wiser than ever. So take this time to reflect and plan. We are at the final corner and are about to find the exit if we can just make it the last few feet. And we will.
Is anyone else feeling the passing of an era right now?
Yes, for years I've felt 2020 would be the point of shift, and then it would take 5-8 years for progressive people to rise to the top of the culture so that we'd feel America had reached a new level of humanitarian leadership.
Is anyone else feeling the passing of an era right now?
Yes, for years I've felt 2020 would be the point of shift, and then it would take 5-8 years for progressive people to rise to the top of the culture so that we'd feel America had reached a new level of humanitarian leadership.
I'm not surprised at the length of time you feel it will take. It will take that long to deal with the legal and criminal fallout from this administration, restore/replace/repair all of the things T has destroyed - including the international reputation of the US - and get our country back on its feet. And given that depressions historically last about that long, it fits with the long economic cycles as well.