@fnwilliamson Hi Nathan, welcome to our forum. Thank you for posting. We are living through yet another tumultuous year with civil discord, inflation, war in Ukraine, a former president being indicted. I’ve sensed that the stock market will be volatile, but evening out by the end of the year. However, the stock market is not the economy. I haven’t sensed any kind of economic calamity. I can understand your worry and suggest you practice meditation to help yourself feel calm. You are welcome to join our Circle of Light meditation on Wednesdays, too.
@bluebelle I see. Some people are predicting a major recession, and others are saying if it happens it will be mild, so I wasn't sure who to believe
@fnwilliamson I've seen the same, but it seems to me that the ones who are saying it will be a major recession are mostly one percenters and the usual doomsayers at the Fed. They're saying the economic growth is "unsustainable" and we need to raise the unemployment rate to 4.5% or higher, basically put people out of work. Yet, Janet Yellen is the Treasury Secretary, and she's saying there may be a few small bumps, but inflation is slowing, the middle class is doing much better, and the economy will be fine, and her message is the one that resonates with me.
The economic "powers that be" just don't seem to have the influence that they used to. Other economies are slowing down around the world, Russia is economic toast and China is also scrambling economically, but the US just keeps chugging along. I don't know why, but I get the impression that the ones with the money are trying their best to force a recession for whatever reason, but with the things that Biden has done (infrastructure, build back better, etc), it's just not happening and they're getting frustrated.
Having said that, there are still some moderate issues with supply chains, but with more manufacturing coming home, they don't seem to be affecting the US as much as other places. I can't explain it, but it just feels to me like the US is going to be as Ms. Yellen says, a few bumps, but overall, fine.
@fnwilliamson @lovendures, explaining the economy in simple terms.
I don't feel that the Fed's current interest rate hikes are trying to hurt the common people in favor of the wealthy. I also think the Fed is doing its job to stabilize the economy.
We don't want a 1929 situation. We want a stable economy, which means, not too slow and not too fast.
Right now the economy is moving too fast because of a post-pandemic surge in working and spending. Yes it is great that everyone is working. But that activity has created a frenzy in spending which in turn has driven prices up. Last year we had the highest inflation in decades. So the economy got too heated, and to cool inflation, the fed started increasing interst rates.
That's what they are supposed to do. When the economy is too slow, they lower interest rates to encourage spending so the economy doesn't come to a halt. When the economy is too fast or heated, we get inflation because people are working and spending so much that prices go up.
When prices go up, we have inflation. Inflation in the extreme is bad. For example, people on fixed incomes (like Social Security), become poorer over night. Everything gets more expensive so companies start charging even more to pay their rising expenses, and people have to get raises to keep up, and the situation can become a runaway train of spiraling prices. So that's not good either.
Nothing in the extremes is good for the economy. We want stability. People behave like a herd and that can mean radical reactions that can tip the economy upside down overnight.
Although it is complex, you could say that the current instability began in 2020 when employment tanked as we almost all quarantined at home. Many were laid off. Companies went bankrupt or closed down whole divisions. We could have had a world wide economic crash, even chaos. So the government gave widespread unemployment payments, lump payments to businesses, and the Fed lowered the interest rates to near zero to get people and businesses spending.
When we all had to quarantine, my dog groomer tearfully closed her little dog groomer shop. But then she used unemployment and those federal payments along with the Fed's lowered interest rates to remodel a bit. She reopened when the quarantine was lifted. It turned out that the pandemic prompted a surge in pet ownership and now she's doing a booming business. She's just one example of how the lowered interest rates kept the economy from crashing. So in 2020, the economy did not come to a complete halt. Yay.
But now everyone is back to work and they are working up a storm. Unemployment is nearly non existent. People are spending and borrowing, and last year we had the biggest inflation in decades. This inflation could turn into a runaway train of inflation and that would be bad.
Volatility is bad. Stability is good.
So the fed began raising interest rates to cool off this sudden surge in inflation. But when the fed raises interst rates, investors get nervous. And we all start to have fears. I felt those fears too.
Right now, people have a "bad feeling about the economy" because of more Fed rate hike fears.
The Fed's job is to create stability in the economy. While I'm not saying there aren't agendas that help the wealthiest, the recent interest rate hikes are to stabilize the economy so we don't have runaway inflation.
It's working. Inflation is down right now even while employment is high. That's good.
The Fed's goal is to keep a stable economy with interest rates not too high or too low.
What is interesting is that in spite of fears that we all felt last year about the future economy, some of us felt good about what the economy would be in the Spring of 2023. As i was meditating on this time in September 2022, I got an okay feeling about the economy. So did @clara and @bliss. And these became hits because things are okay right now, statistically speaking. (See my latest post today on hits.)
But investers are still fearful because short term interest rates are much higher than long term. It's called an inverted yield curve and it is a sign of looming recession. So hang on. Save your money.
Fear continues because the feds will probably raise interest rates again. But inflation is now ticking downward and that is good. We just hope people won't overreact and then we swing too slow.
If everyone already knew the simple macroeconomic model I just described, sorry, I didn't mean to speak down to anyone. But just in case, I thought I'd provide it. Hope it helped someone out there.
I don't pretend to understand the nuances that @tgraf is talking about, although I do know some of what they have done to favor the wealthy. I agree that the government favors the wealthy in its decisions. And dergulation of banks that Reagan and Bush and then Trump did, have jeopardized the economy by allowing banks to behave recklessly, like the Silicon Valley Bank that was reckless and too big to crash) My Senator, Elizabeth Warren know alot about this problem and has been advocating bank regulation now for years.
Thanks for taking the time to write this detailed an well thought out explanation. I appreciate it.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the retail sector since we are seeing an increase of bankruptcy's right now, though with the low unemployment rate, it also appears there are many jobs to still be found.
On a related economic topic, Phoenix currently has higher gas prices than Los Angeles which is unheard of. We can often be 75 cents to a dollar less than L.A. but never, ever the same or higher. Where I live it has been 4.99 for 2 weeks. People are back to really planning their errands strategically and trying to save as much gas as possible. My hybrid is currently averaging between 45-47 miles per gallon and I am thankful for that.
For me, the raise in interest rates, food prices and gas prices are most concerning.
I recently stocked up on some frozen food product lines that were being discontinued at Sprouts due to multiple product line packaging changes. Still good food within a decent expiration date time. 75-90% off. One was plant based burgers for 25 cents a patty ( it was a 2 pack for 50 cents) in one particular case. I bought 8 2- packs. haha. Another was bland based seasoned chicken shreds for $2 for 2 servings in each package and plant based fish for nearly the same price. We will be having lots of plant based meals over here for awhile.
@jeanne-mayell No need, you've explained the macro viewpoint well. It's not that I have any deeper or more nuanced view or explanation; it's just something feels off about it. We're in the middle of the river/lake thing I talked about in my dream post, and it feels like there's a powerful and dark undercurrent that hasn't been exposed yet, but soon will be, and when it is, all hell will break loose in terms of the anger the populace is going to have toward the .05%. I think that's the one remaining "big" thing that I felt is going to happen. We're starting to see hints of it with the Supreme Court stuff, but there is much more to come. It feels overwhelming and makes me pretty anxious since I can't see the road ahead clearly enough to settle the human part of my mind. The soul part still sees the overhead view of the river/lake thing in my dream and knows we'll get through it, but can't provide any reassurances about *how* that happens.
This is a great thread! I'd like to add on interest rates that one of the key ways to help with a recession if/when one comes is lowering interest rates. For a variety of reasons - lowered rates during the Obama era to stave off some financial issues, the Trump administration not raising those rates, and then of course, the big one - COVID 19, our interest rates were hovering at .25% even in March of 2022. Had an economic recession begun during that time that lever would have been mostly pulled and other actions would have had to be taken.
During the Great Recession of 2008, interest rates were temporarily lowered to nearly zero. It went back up gradually over time topping at 2.50% at the the midterm of TFG's presidency. It got lowered again in 2019 going as low as 1.5%. And it again hit zero in March of 2020 in response to COVID 19.
This article from Forbes is a good one: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
We do have other levers we can pull in the event of a Recession, but this one is usually very effective in the short term and I for one am okay with them going back to a manageable level because - recessions are always going to happen. Truth be told, I was more nervous when things were at the 1%-2% range during TFG's presidency because there wasn't much wiggle room.
@tgraf66 I had to look through some of my old posts recently to find a prediction I made and I noticed several periods over the last two years where I felt a buildup of pressure that had me (and everyone it seems!) on edge. Most recently was the first wave of indictments. I'm feeling the pressure build again and while I don't think it completely centers on the economy with the debt showdown, I also know this new build up isn't at peak for explosion yet and anything can happen. I would guess summer - whether June or July. But I'm definitely with you feeling things building again.
@dannyboy Not to harp on my dream post, but it definitely feels like we're underwater at this point, and I know that we will be until we get far enough past the lowest point and walk back upwards enough to get our heads above water again. I'm not usually one to buy into negativity, but I'm honestly at the point that I'm beginning to wonder if we will in fact get through this. In spite of my own posts in the past that we can't allow ourselves to sink into the mire of the noise and BS, I'm very much finding it hard to maintain my usual level of "we can do this". I'm not honestly sure we can, and right now, I just want to live long enough to take care of my mom and the cats and then shuffle off this mortal coil with a very big "FU, and good riddance!". Don't get me wrong, I have no intention of "forcing the issue", so to speak, but as I think I've mentioned before, I won't be sad to leave this time.
@tgraf66 well my friend, if that’s where you are right now, then that’s where you are right now. Not to bring the footprints in the sand parable to you but allow me (us) to carry you through this time as you have carried us from time to time :-).
@dannyboy I come here often when I see things in the news to see if anyone here has any insights into what's happening, but it seems as though no one on this side or in spirit is paying attention to current events. While I do occasionally have a flash of something, I'm really not much of an intuitive. I know that sometimes we just have to keep going in spite of everything and often we can't see why things happen the way they do, but a hint or three from those on the other side who do have a larger perspective would be nice, preferably something more than generic platitudes.
@tgraf66 Well - I try to make it a point not to leave the house with any of my platitudes on empty and I keep my generic platitudes on a special shelf that's not for posting in forums, but to your point on predictions, I do get intuitive predictions from time to time, and on this particular note I'm not seeing anything that hasn't already been said here. Volatility for a time before leveling out. Even Jeanne's cocktail napkin reading (I know Jeanne, I know!) had the first part of 2023 being a bottom of sorts - I know she read it as late 2022 but I never looked at that thing without my brain correcting it to the first half of 2023 and I feel like I'm vindicated in that read :-)
@dannyboy, I totally agree with "volatility for a time before leveling out." Not just specific to the economy, but across the board, in virtually every area of our collective lives. No wonder we're all exhausted and, at times, feel dispirited. During those times I remind myself, "I've felt this way before. Just let go and ride the wave." The one thing I'm still learning is how to distinguish between intuition and my own, very human, inner agendas. I do believe that the more I let go, the more I sense I am being divinely guided. For as intuitive as I believe I am (or sometimes not, LOL!), life is still a holy mystery. And I remain hopeful for our future.
Hmmm. I am not sure I have ever gotten a condescending message from Spirit. Vague yes. Never condescending. I certainly haven't felt the energy of visions and messages being condesending either. Even the messages for humanity I've received have been about love, hope and encouragement.
I haven't always understood why I get certain visions (a monkey with a crown on it's head comes to mind) but that is just part of the mystery. They can be fascinating and remind me of brain teasers. They are also like video games where you understand how to solve puzzles on level one, only to level up and start learning a new concept on the next level. I think we sometimes need to build new skills in order to have better communication with Spirit.
About the Economy, I've have a steady feeling that while things may be a bit of a roller coaster ride for awhile, they will even out. It will take longer if the Republicans continue to foolishly mess with the debt ceiling however. Also, most of the retail bankruptcies are for stores which have not adapted to current consumer shopping trends and are no longer relevant. I rarely found something I needed or wanted at Bed Bath and Beyond anymore but could unusually find something ideal at Target just down the road.