@anita and @journeywithme2, I am also in my late 60's with autoimmune issues. My husband, also in his 60's, generally has stubborn respiratory problems whenever he gets sick. Both of us are currently getting over the flu A.
I spent part of today being worried -- worried that my husband travels to/from work by subway. Worried that I need to get my driver's license renewed in person by mid-July; the DMV here is generally very crowded and chaotic. Generally worried about leaving the house and mingling with people.
But I'm tired of being worried about this. I will be smart, vigilant and take precautionary measures, but beyond that, it's out of my hands. I want to be here, fully present in my life. If I spend my time worrying, then I'm not living my life in real time. And that's a sad way for me to live.
Really good to calm people down and get grounded. So it is a relief to know that the mortality rate is likely to drop and that if you are not elderly or immune compromised, you should not get too sick. I am hopeful that if the most vulnerable are careful they won't get sick.
We still need to keep to the facts: even if the mortality rate drops by half, this virus is still many times more virulent than common influenza.
The common influenza morality rate is .1% (one tenth of one percent). Covid-19 mortality rate is currently 2.3% although, as MA1581 helpfully posted, it is likely to drop. I do not know what experts feel the mortality rate could drop to as time goes on.
But if it drops by half, it will still be ten times the mortality rate of common influenzas.
Covid-19 has been compared to MERS and SARS even though they have somewhat higher mortality rates. The difference is that Covid-19 appears so far to be much more contagious. And the mortality rate of Covid-19 is still quite high.
But you are likely to infect an elderly person if you get around them. So if you get it, take all precautions not to spread it to them and if possible stay away from them until you are no longer contagious.
I found these articles helpful:
Why it's too early to compare Covid-19 with the flu:
Good summary of infection and mortality rates so far: summarized by a U Michigan Research Center
I am not underestimating it in the slightest. Those with immune or previous health issues should be concerned about it, as they should also be with influenza. The fact that it is novel doesnt really mean much at this point. If it were not novel and we did not have a vaccine already, it would basically be the same thing. The incubation period of up to 2 weeks is concerning in regards to it spreading, and that coulsld be why we are seeing so many cases flare up worldwide all of a sudden, however we do not yet know if it is widely communicable while in its incubation period or not.
I also am not overestimating it. It wont kill 10-15% of the world's population like some say. It wont change life as we know it for the general population. It will infect hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of people in the US but 97.5-99.5% of those infected will recover perfectly fine. Again, those are the same exact things that can be said about influenza. Most people dont realize this, but influenza becomes genetically "novel" every few people it infects. That is why the flu shots are well below 50% effective. The virus's dna changes on a regular basis.
What I am saying, in summary, is that if you are included in the group of people that has specific cause for concern, take appropriate precautions and remove unnecessary risks if possible. If you are not, then just go about your daily life as normal. Hand washing, proper cough/sneeze protocol, and overall cleanliness will do a lot when it comes to combating this.
We have our first reported fatality on the coronavirus here in the US. My heart goes out to the family of the victim, and I pray that other victims pull through.
Sadly, our Predator in Chief is once again bungling the situation. While he did offer his condolences for the victim, he mistakenly called the victim a female when the victim was actually a man.
Not only that, but while we are having an emerging crisis where people are becoming more and more uneasy, what has he done?
Besides incite his followers to mess with the Democratic primary and sign a peace deal with the Taliban (which basically was nothing more but a promise to remove American troops from the region in exchange for members of the Taliban to "meet" with representatives of the Afghanistan government even though the Taliban doesn't recognize them)?
He did do a travel restriction to Iran. However, considering that travel between this country and us has been extremely low lately, I don't see how this will have much of an impact.
We need a leader who actually cares about the people they are serving. Not a buffoon who doesn't even know a victim's gender.
If Democrats are smart, they need to focus on how they would respond differently to this situation.
Hi friends. Time to take a chill pill, as they say.
Mercury retrograde. Don't stress right now. A week from Monday, it turns direct. Everything will look differently.
I predicted that late February into March would be very bad for T months ago.
In chapter 50 of the Tao Te Ching, Lao Tzu writes:
He who knows how to live can walk abroad
Without fear of rhinoceros or tiger.
He will not be wounded in battle.
For in him rhinoceroses can find no place to thrust their horn,
Tigers can find no place to use their claws,
And weapons no place to pierce.
Why is this so? Because he has no place for death to enter.
I interpret this verse to mean: we can listen to our guides, know our bodies and environments, and adopt the levels of caution that are appropriate according to those particulars. Add any more levels of worry than are necessary, though, and we become magnets for misfortune because we're no longer living in the present. My guess is that most of us here on this site can figure out how to find the right balance.
This isn't New Age woo. The disclosures of quantum physics tell us that the human mind alters the quantum field and co-creates reality (see double slit experiment).
Just talked to my hilarious friend in LA. He had the following to say:
1. There isn't one bottle of Purell in any store anyplace. He went on line to buy it.
2. He lost $100,000 in four days (stock market) and isn't worried about it.
3. He doesn't want anyone to die, of course, but he's hoping this causes Trump to lose the election.
@mas1581 I can agree with a good amount of what you said. I just want to emphasize and clarify: Incubation period is not latent period. You CAN transmit the virus during that time without being symptomatic. Also, we cannot predict how this virus will behave. We cannot assume that this coronavirus will behave like the flu that we know well even if it does evolve. Today a student was diagnosed, so it is not only a threat to the older demographics. I am not ready to assume that this virus attacks only certain types of people. I agree with the medical philosophy of "prepare for the worst and hope for the best." I for one am not going to ignore the warnings. I am not going off the deep end or stressing out about this. But I am making sure that my family is prepared for whatever comes.
I want everyone to just be safe and hopefully you are right and it turns out to be more like our common flu. But what if this turns out to be something more? I am not trying to stir up panic. I am listening to the medical professionals from the NIH and CDC and heeding their warnings with a level head.
Love you all!
Although age and pre-existing conditions do affect the survival rate, there are other factors at play too. According to China's numbers (they are the only country so far to do a study on the infected parties and the fatalities), the group that had the worst fatality rate were men over seventy with pre-existing conditions and who also smoked. Even then, not everyone in that category died.
There are several reasons for this. Obviously, age and pre-existing conditions don't help (my parents are approaching 70, and my sister has many asthma and diabetes, which would hurt her if she got the virus). Having said that, being a female helps slightly (there have been studies that women, on average, have a greater chance of survival for respiratory diseases and lung cancer than males, even though men tend to have larger lung capacity.) Smoking can affect survival rates as well.
But there are other factors that no one is talking about. People who are diagnosed early have a better chance of survival. People who are conscious of the risks and don't waive it off as "just a cold" have a good chance to survive. People who have taken care of themselves and are proactive in taking care of their pre-existing conditions will have a better chance of survival (my sister has had Type I diabetes for 34 years. Despite the statistics, she keeps her A1C levels within normal ranges and fortunately has not suffered any diabetes related complications).
But the light helps too. Because, at least to a certain example, you are what you think. By focusing on the positive, we can heal ourselves by not letting negativity break down our spirits to the point that we can no longer fight physically.
You are smart to be pro-active in worrying about your health. But please don't focus on your age and health as the top factors. As far as I am concerned, it will be hubris that will kill victims of the coronavirus, not age and health conditions. Just take care of yourself, be vigilant, and hopefully look here for support.
Yes March was a time we both had mentioned. I know you and some of us have seen money related issues being a problem, like when his taxes are released, but I wanted to ask you -- do you also get the feeling that some of his money issues could have to do with mis appropriation of funds? Could he have literally stolen in a sense from the government? With this virus and funds being more highlighted it made me wonder....
I am in the Northwest and covid-19 is starting to hit here. First fatality at a hospital a few miles from me. I don’t usually get bad feelings about pandemic scares (Ebola/SARS/etc.) but I did for this one, when the news first started going around. I’m in medical school (natural health) and can see illness on people (Please do NOT ask me for medical advice; I’m only a student). Pretty sure I saw it on a girl working at the coffee shop I went to today. I go there regularly and she was not her usual self.
One thing nobody has mentioned yet- a lot of Trump’s base is the 60+ age group. Those who are at more risk from the virus... 80+ is highest risk but it does increase fairly linearly with age. Praying that nobody gets hurt but I’m afraid they will. Best outcome is that it’s just bad enough to wake people up with no more damage than necessary for that. ❤️
Some facts that belong on the other thread, but since everyone is commenting here...
1. Alcohol isn't that effective at killing coronaviruses. Bleach is better.
2. N-95 masks won't really work (virus is too small), and are only good for 4 hours anyway.
3. Mortality rate is currently 3.4% overall (per the Hopkins dashboard), but it looks like it's closer to 40% for those over age 50 (although no one is breaking numbers down by age yet).
4. That mortality rate is about twice the mortality rate of seasonal flu.
5. Don't touch your face, and teach your kids not to. And STOP shaking hands. As I pointed out recently, we're not ancient Romans proving we don't have a weapon in our right hand. Waving apologetically is perfectly fine.
6. As long as they don't harm you, things like coconut oil and colloidal silver are fine, just understand there is no science behind claims of efficacy, and don't count on them.
7. Beware conspiracy theories. The Russians and Saudis will use anything they can to sow more chaos worldwide. COVID-19 is being weaponized, for sure, but not as a bio-weapon, more as a political one.
@laura-f I feel that I should let you know (and this is with all due respect) that I shared your information and have gotten quite a bit of blowback and I am curious to know your sources as people are asking me for them. The truth is that this coronavirus is so new that it is difficult to pin down absolute truth about it and I truly believe that your intent was to share truth. Can you help me out? ?
As I said, I posted my sources previously, on the thread related to COVID-19,but they are:
The Atlantic (well respected magazine/website), Washington Post, Sacramento Bee
CDC website (cdc.gov)
On the Media (podcast from NPR) episode "Black Swans"
And again, the Johns Hopkins real time dashboard, which is here: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
I haven’t seen a death rate anything like 40% for over 50s. So far over 80s mortality rate is about 15%. Age 50 - 59 is approx 2%
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743
The mortality rate is a completely unreliable statistic at this point. With testing being minimal at best in most of the world because of it's being novel with symptoms that are common among many viruses, it is almost a certainty that there are at least thousands of cases that have gone untested/unconfirmed. The mortality rate of this will be inflated for a while until testing becomes regular practice for all those with flu symptoms. The deaths, on the other hand, will be more heavily tested because there is a panic and when someone dies from "the flu" the question of whether it was covid19 will be instantly raised.