I saw McConnell celebrating by the end of the summer, which I took to mean that the bill would pass in some form, though not in its present form.
Behind closed doors, the GOP leadership are pressuring their membership with a combination of: (1) ways to spin their votes to their constituents so they won't lose their seats over it and (2) threats that if GOP members don't vote for the bill, they will lose party support for their reelection, and in fact the party will finance opponents to beat them in the next election. This type of pressure has worked for all but a few hold-outs who believe they will lose their seats anyway if the bill passes in its present form.
The GOP political consultants are now trying to figure out ways to make the bill palatable for the hold-outs.
If the bill passes, the final modifications may be further delays in implementing the full force of the bill - which enables GOP members to tell their constituents that, but eventually flattening these programs (Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, and health insurance rules) over the long term. They hope they can sufficiently disguise the impact from all of those who will be hurt, and also make changes and get them passed before the Congressional Budget Office can assess the true loss to the public.
They have already managed to obscure the fact more than half of Medicaid funds go to the middle-class elderly who worked all their lives but exhausted their funds to long-term care. Most younger people don't realize how hard the impact will be on them - not just that they won't be able to afford to purchase health insurance for themselves unless their employers provide it, but that they will bear the financial and lifestyle burden of caring for their elderly parents without health care for them.
Fox has deliberately not provided any news about the bill, essentially leaving their viewers, many of them trusting seniors, in the dark as to how they are going to be devastated by this bill.
I know a couple of folks who are ardent Trump supporters and will be devastated by this bill. And they have no idea. Both have preexisting conditions. They don't listen. It's really frightening.
Any backlash on this, Jeanne? Will states form healthcare coalitions? What about the AMA? Will doctors have to choose between treating patients and obeying federal authority?
My own counselor told me today, after 5 years with her, that if this bill passes, she'll have to close her doors, because the ACA and Medicaid is basically keeping her in business...
I feel like states and cities are going to start filling the vacuum with the help of philanthropy... think Michael Bloomberg or Tom Steyer on climate change alone. A revolution in governance is coming.
i learned the other day that by 2030, 60% of the world will be urban and that grows to over 70% by 2050. These also tend to be the most progressive places.
The future is in the city.
These GOP policies will hurt people but not for long. They don't have time on their side.
Meghan, the health care industry will take a huge hit if this thing goes through as written.
It wouldn't happen all at once because they are going to phase in these cuts over a period of years.
But eventually health prices would go up for everyone. Hospitals have large fixed costs, so if suddenly a lot of people can't pay, then they will have to find a way to get the money for all those costs to pay for all that expensive medical equipment, the bricks and mortar, technology, administrative staff. They will have to consolidate with other hospitals, close doors to many patients, lay off nurses, and staff, and doctors. Hundreds of clinics will close. The nursing home industry will take a huge hit. Mental health clinics will close and others will consolidate.
States and cities will try to fill the gap, and they will do a lot, and like we have foreseen, people will do so much giving, like never before.
But the loss in federal revenue will be too much for them to do it all. They will have to raise taxes to pay for the shortfall.
This shift along with other cutbacks they are planning, could hit right at the time Brexit is causing a contraction in Europe, and the overall effect, along with some developments brewing in China, could trigger a recession.
Remember that this health care bill is a big income redistribution -- from the poor and middle class to the rich. And the rich don't create jobs, contrary to what they want you to believe. They take a lot of their money out of the country -- to foreign goods and banks. It's an energy drain from the U.S. economy.
Positive aspects:
If it goes through, there will be good things that happen when people swoop in to care for others. People will seek less expensive therapies, many of which are healthier and less invasive. There will be a rise in barefoot medicine. Some stores will start providing cheap pharmaceuticals.
Also for many people, less health care can be a good thing. Over 250,000 people die each year from health care itself. That's right -- iatrogenic disease (disease caused by the physician) is the third leading cause of death. So cutbacks like these will save many people from harmful health care.
But, and its a big but -- many people who need care won't get it. And many people will die from not getting the care they need. And families will have to care for their sick elderly -- a huge burden for families who need to work, especially if their elderly parents need medical care and it will no longer be affordable.
And Paul, I agree -- things have to get worse before they get better. But they will get better! If this thing passes, we will adjust and good will come from our life-affirming reaction to it all.
A California state democrat has just shelved the healthy California bill, which if it had passed the California house would have given California a single payer healthcare system. Previously this bill had passed the California state senate. The bill was advocated for by national nurses United. I had an instinct this would happen, but that same instinct tells me that by 2020 this bill will pass and California will have a universal healthcare system. I feel very strongly that by 2020 this will happen.
Natalie, thanks for the information and your intuitive sense about it. California is the most likely to institute single payor. After all, they had free higher education. New York City is another locality to watch.
Hi Everyone! As someone who has met Assembly Speaker Renden and been to the Capitol several times to lobby for resistance efforts, and who also has met with my state senator, Toni Atkins - a co-sponsor of the bill, I can shed some light on this. There are 2 reasons why this had to be shelved for now: 1. As a state, CA needs to wait to see how the AHCA/federal thing pans out. We all know it will pass, but we need more specific info about it because that will affect how our state bill should be written, we want it to be truly universal. This bill was not comprehensive enough; 2. A main component missing from the bill was financing - how to pay for all that without hammering middle class taxpayers, plus there are issues with some existing federal law in that regard and I think he wants to see how federal will shake out before we make our plans. Speaker Renden is basically like a classroom teacher handing back a paper. He's saying it's incomplete and not good enough to be graded at this time, he's sending them back to the drawing boards. State reps are free to write a whole new bill, which makes sense, rather than do what we do here in CA - it gets submitted to both our houses multiple times for votes and revisions. Apparently he felt that that wouldn't be enough. To my fellow Californians I say don't despair, this will happen by end of 2019, and for those watching us, I say don't worry, we got this, we'll show you how it's done.
The vision I had earlier about there bill: I saw McConnell celebrating by the end of the summer, which I took to mean that the bill would pass in some form, though not in its present form.
Looks like my vision of McConnell celebrating at the end of summer wasn't necessarily about passing some form of a health care bill. I don't know why the man was happy, but I realize that the timing -- could still be about the health care bill since I just learned that they have until the end of July to get the bill passed.
When I looked at him during first few weeks of July, he looks sad and disappointed, so I think that's more of an indicator that he can't get the bill passed.
Tampering with Medicaid and Social Security, especially Social Security, and anything that hurts the elderly, which this bill will do, has always been a suicidal move for politicians. Looks like most Senators don't want to lose their seats.
Once again, I am reminded of an important rule in getting predictions correct -- stick to the visions and don't interpret.
He might be happy because he gets to go on vacation.
McConnell cancelled the August recess. Maybe now we know why he's happy in August. He's gonna pass something then isn't he...
Wooohoooo... I'm actually going to a tour of the Capitol tomorrow with my mother, via my senator's office. Should be interesting in light of all this. Wish me luck!
Wearing a sleeveless halter tomorrow, too. ? If that ain't sufficient, I'll be happy to adorn myself in bellydance gear and dance right past the speaker's lobby... ?
Meant to reply to the statement that CA has free higher ed: We do not. In fact the CA college/U system has gotten so expensive that it's frequently more affordable to send your kid to a neighboring state (ours is headed to AZ in the Fall). It's also gotten ridiculously hard to get in with less than a 3.9 GPA, even to the "back up" schools. For example, our daughter had a 3.0. She applied to 7 CA state colleges and 1 UC, and only 1 school accepted her - Channel Islands. Had she gotten into, say CS Chico, it would have cost MORE to send her there due to high costs of room and board and travel. AZ is actually closer and has way lower living expenses for students.
Paul, I agree with you. We will end out okay. I believe that.
News tonight is that Senate doesn't have the votes to pass the bill. So no bill for now. This fits my earlier prediction that McConnell looked sad and disappointed the first few weeks of July.
Started a new thread on that, here and in the comments. My posts in comments still are held up in moderation, though.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/07/17/mike_lee_jerry_moran_stab_trumpcare.html
Meghan, Thanks for posting. I don't know why in the world the wordpress application held your post. Argh. Just approved it. Comment moderation is a never ending cyber mystery. Thanks for your patience.