I read this article: https://newrepublic.com/article/140948/bluexit-blue-states-exit-trump-red-america?utm_source=social&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=sharebtn It is from The New Republic and titled BLUEXIT
A MODEST PROPOSAL FOR SEPARATING BLUE STATES FROM RED
So from thought to word... I remember Jeanne saying that states and localities will pick up responsibility for the people that the Feds cut. I live in NY and already there is the Excelsior Scholarship which pays tuition at state schools for state residents.
Kathy, thanks for posting this. New York State is the first to pay full tuition for its residents. The measure was started in April if this year. That is a huge step.
When the prediction group first started meditating for positive visions, the notion that the country would become more locally oriented came to me right away.
There is a bill for single payor in NY but I don't think they have all the votes. I suspect the first round, it will get voted down mainly because of the uncertainty regarding Medicare and Medicaid in the Senate and House. It will probably take passage of the Federal Health Care Bill for NY law writers and budget office to get together to hammer something out that has a reliable funding source. Much like what California is going through. I suspect they did not pass theirs for the same reason.
To put the localism in perspective, It has always been the case that the blue states were providing more Care to their citizens than the red states. The blue states are richer and also more humanitarian.
They supplemented the amounts that the Feds pay the poorest citizens to get by and they offered more generous health care. IF you're poor it has always been better to live in Massachusetts, California or New York than Alabama or Mississippi.
The question remains whether the Congress will cut federal income taxes however. The New Republic article you referenced calls for a near elimination of federal taxes so states can then raise state taxes to pay for the programs the Feds are slashing.
My feeling is that the GOP won't cut federal income taxes across the board, only for the rich. They want to keep getting the money we pay them so they can transfer it to themselves, e.g. military oontracts, reduced deficit (a deficit that exploded during GW Bush to pay for Iraq war and tax cut for the rich.
If they really want to succeed in transferring the business of caring for American citizens to the states, as they claim, then they would include in their proposals a huge drop in federal income tax for everyone. Then the blue states could raise state taxes to cover social programs. It would create a new America -- one with even greater geo-political extremes.
And of course some amount of people would migrate from red to blue for the social benefits and others would migrate from blue to red for the lower taxes Businesses would also move.
Over time the other vision I had for the next ten years would come true. Americans would no longer care about what goes on in Washington DC. The GOP would hasten their own demise.
P.S. NYC already offers free care at a clinic and I thought the 17 city hospitals provided free care too, but maybe not any more. I worked as an analyst at the NYC office of management and Budget a long time ago when that was the case. But times have changed and New York State and New York City a vastly different entities, the former is much more conservative.
The New Republic article also addressed the issue of rural versus urban Americans which is where the red versus blue divide really exists in this country. The red states tend to be more rural states. As for their mention of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, those are (I believe) blue states whose polls got hacked. If we knew the true vote for those states, I believe Clinton would have won them.
It's a complex issue but the bottom line is that blue states are going to try to pick up the slack left by the federal GOP. And there will huge battles to reduce federal income taxes so that states can increase theirs to pay for their programs. Like the article said, it is a blue-exit without secession. I would like to take a closer look at predicting how it will go when I have the chance.
Yes but states like NY and California already possess large concentrations of wealthy people-- the financial, health and tech centers. There are rural areas that are pretty conservative but in NY they are most vocal about the guns (Gov. Cuomo is particularly villified on his SAFE Act) and taxes but honestly, much of the taxes they complain about are property/school taxes. There are discounts on both income and school taxes for senior citizens. Many move if they can to the South where they feel more sympathetic but not all are suited to that kind of heat (I like to point out Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas don't have that problem). I'm looking forward to your class/training in August. Last time I could not participate. Just an aside.. what are your thoughts on the Church of Light/Brotherhood of Light?
I read that article when it first came out. The points made really struck me, because I know devoted Trump people in Massachusetts so I've always questioned the idea that this was a liberal state. My hometown of Toronto also at one point elected Rob Ford so I understand what it's like to think you live in a liberal area and then be surprised by reality (I grew up in Ford nation the area that voted for him the most). The article addressed rural vs urban and people moving to areas where they feel ideologically secure. While I don't like the idea of us all living in bubbles and not communicating with each other, I think at this point the right wingers simply don't listen to anything that goes against their innate biases, it's like talking to a brick wall, nothing penetrates, no facts, no reality, nothing. So if that's what we're dealing with, then it's perfectly reasonable to try to build communities locally around people that live in a fact based world and base their decisions on compassion and sound reasoning. I think this is what's going to happen, because the majority of the country that isn't deluded by right wing media is going to want to come together and keep themselves and their communities safe from this threat, which is a real and very scary threat. My big question is taxes. The feds can't expect people to keep paying the same level in taxes while they increasingly get nothing back for it, it's literal theft. So how I'm wondering is this tax fight going to go? Can the GOP be persuaded to cut taxes on lower classes than the 1%, can the states make that case and win?
Another article on the same topic. This one gives examples of localisation already happening.
It is like we are all speaking a different language living in our alternate realities and the article addressed this in this paragraph:
"A political sea change takes place only when you can get people on the other side to come over. But you can only get them to switch if you can get them to listen to what you have to say, and you can only get them to listen if you share something resembling the same idea of objective reality. This is the bleakest new reality of all: That common ground is gone. You Trump Staters don’t read or listen to the same news sources we do. You don’t even care what a legitimate news source is, as the rise of all those fake news sites has demonstrated. Two-thirds of you believe that unemployment rose under Obama, even though he actually cut it by more than half; just 17 percent of you acknowledge that Obamacare has driven the percentage of Americans without health insurance to a record low. Exactly what is the messaging strategy to win over those of you willing to believe that Hillary Clinton and John Podesta are running a secret child-sex-slave ring out of a Washington pizza parlor? Or that President Obama is a secret Kenyan? Or that a routine military training exercise is a UN attempt to conquer Texas? Or any of the other bizarre and inane conspiracy theories that are now promulgated daily as the gospel truth not just by a few, fringe elements but by leading members of our new government’s security apparatus?"
Normally I would disagree in staying in our respective bubbles -- particularly with a belief system in that we are all really one. But seriously, we are in different worlds already. As our cities -- particularly NYC and some of the cities around it become less affordable, people do move up and out -- to other more suburban and rural areas that become developed with more housing. They bring their ideas with them. We lived in the Hudson Valley for a while and moved North--first lived in the city here and bought a home in the suburbs to raise our son but my husband started out in Yonkers, and my family started out in Long Island. We have next door neighbors that moved here from Queens. I have discovered that most Republicans (Tea Party variety) miss the ability to empathize. They do not consider the effects of legislation until it actually affects them. I see that in many stories lately in reference to deportations and healthcare and still some would still vote for him because they are most comfortable in being subjects to an authoritarian and would basically still vote for him if he shot a person on 5th Avenue in daylight (heck, even a broken clock is right twice a day).
Kathy and Natalie, thanks for a great discussion. You are so articulate and informative.
Natalie, I don't yet know, in terms of prophecy, whether the GOP will lower federal income taxes. Massachusetts has already said they don't have the revenues to replace the programs the GOP Congress wants to eliminate or seriously cut back. Imagine paying the same income tax you've been paying and then instead of an additional 6% tacked on for state tax, as occurs in Massachusetts, you have to pay an additional 20% on the margin. I'm making up that figure, so perhaps there's a real one out there already that fits what would have to happen if blue states were to fully replace Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and family aid programs .
Also Massachusetts is a strange state. It's always voted blue, the Congressional delegation have some of the most liberal democrats in the Congress. Yet, it loves alternating with Republican then democratic governors. And the state legislature is a mix.
I too am looking forward to the upcoming online class I'm leading on July 26th at 8 pm eastern (not August). Here's the link. I hope people sign up. I want to see the results afterwards. I'll be doing positive visions as well as just plain visions. Then for those who want to stick around, I'll sit there with my cards and respond to questions.
Thanks Natalie for this article. It was very interesting. I think there is a long way to go though.