I just heard back from a virologist and professor friend of mine who was gracious enough to answer some questions I had about the possibilities of antibodies for this virus and about a vaccination. Here is his response:
Covid is caused by Sars Coronavirus 2, which is a large RNA virus. What this means is it has a moderate ability to mutate compared to a simple DNA virus like HPV. As a result, sometimes having antibodies does not mean durable protection. This is because complex RNA viruses play tricks on the immune system, essentially telling them to make antibodies to a non-essential protein- it’s a smokescreen strategy. Still though, most (90%) of people w normal immune function will develop strong immune protection. But this issue will not be a problem for vaccine efforts, which are directed at the S glycoprotein, which is essential for infection. What we are worried about are those ppl w latent or chronic infections which can keep the outbreak going by infecting ppl after we return to work. So, it’s not like a regular cough virus, it may continue to harass us until we have a vaccine or effective drug. Nonetheless, I have lots of confidence that we will innovate our way out of this, as we always do before. But we have to be careful (covidulant) in the mean time.
What I took away from this conversation.
1. He is hopeful. Hopeful for treatment and/or hopeful for a good vaccine. He is confident that we can be innovative and figure something out. We have figured out difficult things in the past.
2. Having antibodies may be helpful for most, but not all people.
3. In some people who harbor latent/chronic infections, they will continue to spread the virus after things return to "normal".
4. We really need an effective vaccine or drug treatment .
One thing I'd like to add to that is that as time progresses and the virus mutates, it will become less and less deadly. Add to that the fact that each day we learn more of how it attacks the body and can develop treatments for its major issues. Getting covid 2 years from now will probably still be very possible but it will not be the same life threatening risk it is today. I see it eventually ending up in the repertoire of seasonal flus we have gotten used to and pose minimal threat, just as the Spanish flu has.
This is a concern. Asymptomatic farm workers in Washington state are testing positing for Covid-19 a study has found.
One thing I'd like to add to that is that as time progresses and the virus mutates, it will become less and less deadly. Add to that the fact that each day we learn more of how it attacks the body and can develop treatments for its major issues. Getting covid 2 years from now will probably still be very possible but it will not be the same life threatening risk it is today. I see it eventually ending up in the repertoire of seasonal flus we have gotten used to and pose minimal threat, just as the Spanish flu has.
What is your basis for saying "as time progresses and the virus mutates, it will become less and less deadly"? Per my understanding, this is not a given. In 1918, for example, the Spanish Flu mutated into a deadlier strain in round two.
a lot of people that are very sick with covid have been using plasma this is something that doctors should start focusing on until there is a vaccine plasma donations for the ones who have been suffering with covid have been recovering from using plasma this could save a lot of lives.
A virus that is less virulent has a better chance of spreading. People who are gravely ill do not move around and come into contact with many others. Thus as the virus mutates, the strains that usually get passed around fastest are the ones that keep the population less ill and thus mobile. The extremely virulent ones tend to stay localized to a specific location and episode (think Ebola vs. common cold, both corona viruses)
In 1918, it is theorized that WWI changed this dynamic. The least ill persons stayed put on the front lines in the trenches while the gravely ill were sent back to crowded field hospitals on packed transports, thus helping to spread the more deadly second wave.
@mas1581 and everyone: Gentle reminder to all: There are a lot of statements flying around the Internet about what will and will not happen and what is and is not true. Please give us links to medical research for these statements so we can evaluate them. If the statements are from intuition, then fine, but please say that so we can evaluate them with that in mind. Thanks. :-)
If I reference a covid study, I will link from now on. My conclusions, however, are made from my education(BS in microbiology with emphasis on genetics) and years of studied scientific evidence long preceeding all this media mess.
When I say something such as the Spanish flu is now just a seasonal flu, I dont have an article online that supports it because that info predates the internet and primarily sits in textbooks. It is, however, long standing accepted scientific fact. The multiple mutations of viruses almost always (very very few exceptions) making them less deadly is the same long standing scientific fact.
Would you prefer me to exclude these types of conclusions if I cannot immediately reference them with online findings?
@mas1581. Even when it is hard to find references, it helps if bloggers give us some way to evaluate a statement they are presenting as fact. When people make statements here with no link and no information, we can't evaluate it unless we do our own research. Often there is great back up out there.
And if the back up you provide is that you have an undergraduate degree in microbiology with a specialty in genetics, that's great and amazing. I recall you did mention that once earlier, now that you mention it again, but there are 600 people in this community so not easy to remember people's credentials, especially with a semi-numerical alias. I'm not likely to ever forget it now, though. LOL. However the thousands of people who view this site each day might not have read that earlier post. So good to help them out.
And you guys who post your intuitions with absolutely zero basis in fact, we welcome that too, as long as you tell us that it's an intuition, which usually you do. If it comes from a dream, then tell us it was a dream. We are all ears. We have a whole section for dreams, for Tarot readings, numerology and astrology and whatever form of intuition you want to use. If it's astrology, then great. We want to know. @Lawrence and @vestralux and some others do that and we love it.
One thing I'd like to add to that is that as time progresses and the virus mutates, it will become less and less deadly.
Yes, this is what I am hoping for. Maybe this explains why the virus is a lot more deadly in Italy and Spain, and then New York, if we follow the path of this pandemic. Our "staying at home" will give the healthcare professionals time and resources to help those who get sick recover.
@drolma @lovendures @mas1581 I was playing with the Yes-No Oracle Tarot Spread this weekend with the question, "Will the Pandemic Subside?" I thought it was going to say "Not anytime soon," but it gave me the answer, "Soon", which I took to mean three to six months. I don't think "subside" means it disappears, but that low to medium risk people will come out of isolation. The way this spread works, the answer is where the Wheel of Fortune falls when you shuffled and lay out the cards. It fell in the second quadrant which means "soon." I have to admit that when I saw it I got something else than it is supposed to be saying. I saw the fool and thought that people will come out too soon and there will be hell to pay for that.
NY is ramping up the testing. I know they are going to let pharmacies to do the test and I got an email from an emergency clinic I have gone to that they are now testing for Covid and the antibodies test. I am wondering when the drs office will start also.
Thank you for asking that question Jeanne. This would make sense and I guess would depend upon where you live.
In read the future night I got June, and it would be a slow downhill process. (man pulling a cart with difficulty downhill). What I wonder right now is what will happen with colleges in the fall. I suspect logically speaking that will also be on a more local level, that some will open with a plan in place and with some modifications to programs while others will have a delayed opening, maybe start online and move to in person later, while others will delay on campus classes for a semester. I also would think that universities that have a strong research presence might have more options. UofA is currently creating antibody tests and plans to have them available for all their students/staff in the fall. ASU has been making COVID-19 tests in their lab and sending them out to medical facilities and also testing first responders and health care workers. I would assume that students and staff would be able to get a test quickly on campus, I believe a handful already have done so. There will likely be lots of COVID research projects created on universities, they may be able to track things on campus better than county/state health departments could track and make changes to how the university operates with what their research is discovering.
I am getting a "tickle", that yes, some universities will be able to do research which will help guide how campus' will open and operate in the fall. It may mean for less normal virus spread in the future with the changes that will be implemented now including more washing stations, masks in class, sanitizer and so forth. It will be interesting what innovations will be created on universities because of this pandemic.
Jessi1978 Knowing where states are in their testing and how much testing they need to get on top of the pandemic helps us to understand better what is going on. If the state can flag everyone who is infected, then they can quarantine them and keep everyone else safe.
According to the Harvard study,New York has been averaging 20,000 to 25,000 tests per day but needs to do 130,000 to 155,000 tests every day.
Testing has been the key since day one. Sadly, our government focused on the miracle cure and not testing. Like we were talking about the other night, the fact that its spread long before anyone realizes they have it makes it so dangerous. Once people get a grasp of who all is infected, symptomatic or not, then we will stop the spread quite quickly.
The difference between this and most other diseases is that most other make themselves known in relatively short time. If you know you're sick, you are going to act differently than if you think you arent. People get covid and spread it to dozens of others before they get their first cough so we are truly walking into an ambush daily. If this was deadlier, per infection, or had quicker onset of symptoms, we wouldve had this contained weeks ago even with the same federal ineptitude.
@jeanne-mayell I disagree strongly with your statement that Texas is doing enough in the way of COVID-19 testing. They clearly are not. I live in Texas and attempted twice to get tested because I have cold-like symptoms I can't get rid of. Both times I was told I wasn't sick enough to be tested. The problem with that is that the symptoms are extremely variable and you can't tell from symptoms alone if someone has it. The majority of cases are not the headline-grabbing life-threatening cases but it's still important to know if your symptoms are coming from COVID-19 or something completely different. Thanks to the deplorable lack of testing in Texas I don't know whether or not my symptoms are coming from COVID-19.
What I would like to see is a public works program where the government hires workers to make COVID-19 testing supplies, masks, and other supplies that are needed to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. We need to test nearly the entire US population for COVID-19. Some people should be tested multiple times. If we're serious about minimizing the loss of life, that's what it will take. We have to correctly identify all the people who have infection. The numbers of cases we hear on the news are only a very small fraction of the true numbers of infected people.
@jeanne-mayell When you say three to six months for COVID to subside, can that be this coming summer?