Just heard on Reuters that April 15 is a big holiday in North Korea, being the birthday of one of the founders. They usually celebrate with a show of military force, and are reported to be excited about a war with the United States. The timing with the taxes protest March in DC makes me nervous.
Interesting development: This article was posted today, April 12: China Threatens To Bomb North Korea's Nuclear Facilities If It Crosses Beijing's "Bottom Line" - see http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-11/china-threatens-bomb-north-koreas-nuclear-facilities-if-it-crosses-beijings-bottom-l .
Also, a psychic predicted on 3/7/17: "I had a visual of the United States Flag and the Chinese Flag coming together side by side. “Both nations have grown tired of Kim Jong Un, his removal is imminent, the regime is ending.. it’s over” “North Korea will become a part of China giving them a strategic edge in Asia.. all will unfold soon” I had a visual of Kim Jong Un being led away, he had a look of fear on his face."
That could be one of the more positive, hopeful outcomes, marzantar. I worry North Korea will strike first.
From: Graham
Subject: North Korea
Location: Pacific.
Outcome. Red Alert
Probability : High
Expansion:
The situation re North Korea is becoming very serious.
We now have a confrontation where an American naval task force, with a super-carrier, is on track for a location near North Korea. It is going to come into range of the Korean anti-ship missiles fairly soon. (The Koreans have supersonic cruise missiles) Likewise, the American fleet will bring North Korean targets within range, at the same time. At that point, even a mistake by either side, could be very serious. We are literally in the hands of fate.
This is the flash-point. I think the Koreans are more unstable and paranoid than we think.Kim will be under large pressures, from his own ruling circle, not to lose face, or be humiliated. This is now close to flash point time. If nothing happens for a week, we are past the danger point. I feel that Kim will lash out, in some way, and then it is in grave danger of escalation. Will do a serious post on this later. The situation is a bit fluid at the moment. The one thing I do know is that the Koreans have made a full battle plan, in the event of an incident, that includes a set of responses that go all the way up to full scale war and invasion of South Korea. I do not think his generals are very keen on this. But the military plans are there, to be activated. They are updated, and there are a variety of options available to the North Koreans. Even they do not know, at this point, what the response would be, in the event of an incident.
Japanese war ships are joining US ships. I figure this will either antagonize more or make him stop & think maybe his ideas might not be so good
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/12/japanese-warships-join-us-fleet-north-korea
Urgent Flash alert: RED
China and USA are moving into place for a "Resolution of the Crisis" as they put it. They are anticipating the triggering of a North Korean coup by using this to pressurise the military. Such a coup may misfire. In that case Kim will attack immediately it is technically possible. If the Coup succeeds, crisis effectively over. If coup fails, then we are back on serious crisis track. If No Coup, but crisis continues then China will wait for the Americans to act, then decide their own options. The crisis is therefore moving, in that case, to either the Americans withdrawing beyond missile distance, or being the first to strike. Decision taken in Washington, but events may upset it beforehand. Korea, if the madman is cornered, may take decision to do a first strike, which will involve striking South, and also attacking Americans. Kim is in a state of terrible indecision. Either way, his survival is now under severe threat. More later.
This is such a scary situation, especially for all the people in that region. They lives depend on on two mad men on both sides. I pray for peaceful solution to this.
What's the probability of Kim Jung-Un's elite turning on him, giving up the NK nuclear program, and installing a leader controlled by China in order to stay any actions taken against them?
Seyrin,
The whole set of international discussions, between China, America, and Russia, has sort of resolved that this would be the best outcome. But if anything goes wrong, from international pressure on the regime to overthrow him, it will be an absolute disaster. Kim will launch a major attack if the coup fails. He may launch a major attack anyway. He will not back down, in the face of the advancing American task force and planned bomber strikes on North Korea. These are ready and prepped so that they can go at fairly short notice. So if the Americans push hard enough, he will lash out. The likelihood of a coup is fairly low. What is likely, if no coup, is a final confrontation with America. I think the Americans have not done enough contingency planning. They do not know exactly where the nuclear weapons are stored, or the actual readiness of the long range missiles, able to heat the USA. The greatest danger is the korean navy, who can put to sea a nuclear strike sub, and tens of conventional subs, some able to fire missiles. They would be able to attack America. The whole issue is now swirling around and the outcome could go several ways. Absent the radio announcement that the "Great Leader" has tragically died of a massive heart attack, or a coup, some kind of military action is now inevitable. The war will probably start as a mistake, or misjudgement, then escalate. It all now depends on kim and trump, which one blinks first. I think neither will do so. So the matter is reduced to timing, and one of scale and impact. It will be resolved over the next few days. One way or the other. I fear the worst. After an initial clash, there will be an escalation, as neither side backs down. Afterwards, the Americans will be revealed as having faulty intelligence and poor planning. This might be disasterous.
re: Korea:
I do get that Kim is in a state of terrible indecision, and beginning to panic. He has not got the mental capacity to get through this one. he feels very threatened. There is an atmosphere of stalinist fear in North Korea, amongst the leadership. Anything might happen.