from what I've read, many scientists believe the sea level will rise a maximum of 2.5 meters by 2100 and that the ice caps will not have fully melted, but a part of me feels they are underestimating this.
Yep, policymakers and most researchers (at least in public) are underestimating the effects of climate change big time. There's solid evidence that bodies like the IPCC water down their projections in order to please moneyed interests. But the biggest driver of this blunting effect is probably cultural. If we admit that that sea levels will rise 7 meters by 2100, then we have to relinquish all of our coastal cities, and the vast majority of people aren't ready to take that step. There's also the demonstrated fact that most people are unable to grasp the ramifications of exponential growth. But this is starting to change with this pandemic, at least for those of us paying attention.
@jeanne-mayell You've projected that 2030 will another pivot point year like 2020. But the big theme in 2030 will be climate change and a collective recognition that we're dealing with an exponential process. Can you say anything more about what will be in store for us in 9 years?
Hey @coyote
I agree with you - I think there's a lot more they don't account for- but more of this will hopefully be revealed soon and that will mean a more accelerated effort to do something. But it could take another 5 years before that happens, I really hope not though.
I'm also concerned we haven't done more farming in large greenhouses right now, otherwise we will see a major interruption to food supplies globally due to drought and other extreme conditions. It all seems like an afterthought all the time - very much like how slow some countries have been to deal with covid - and I include the UK in that.
It will be interesting to see what Jeanne has to say about the next 9 years.
from what I've read, many scientists believe the sea level will rise a maximum of 2.5 meters by 2100 and that the ice caps will not have fully melted, but a part of me feels they are underestimating this.
Yep, policymakers and most researchers (at least in public) are underestimating the effects of climate change big time.
The climate system is highly complex and there are many potential unpredictable/unknown events that might potentially perturb it. Science can only give you the "best odds given what we know now".
But the key point is that it is not important right now whether we are under- or over-estimating the degree of climate change and its consequences.
People in general just need to understand that screwing with the climate system-- which we KNOW we are doing taking by carbon (fossil fuels) out of the ground and spewing it into the atmosphere as CO2-- is an act that has potential for very very serious consequences. One thing we DO know pretty much for certain is that CO2 traps heat in the atmosphere. So here we are, leaning on the climate balance pan harder and harder and harder and expecting/hoping it won't tip. We may not know exactly when it will tip, or how violently it will tip, but we know for sure we're leaning on it and that leaning on it can tip it. And that's really all we need to know. The risks far outweigh any short-term advantages in "business as usual". We need to just take our thumbs off the balance pan and leave the d*mn thing alone. (Should have done it while ago.)
(The phrase "Don't poke the bear" also comes to mind-- with the climate system as the bear. I mean, you don't know for sure how the bear will react, but you just need to know the potential is there for serious violence. So you don't poke it.)
from what I've read, many scientists believe the sea level will rise a maximum of 2.5 meters by 2100 and that the ice caps will not have fully melted, but a part of me feels they are underestimating this.
@luminous You are correct that they are vastly underestimating it. Sea level rise is something I've been looking at for a decade. I get at least 20 feet sea level rise by 2100. It will be higher in some places, like the Eastern Seaboard. I just know it. Where did you get 2.5 meters? It's too low, although it's much higher than what they used to predict. I see Southern Florida under water by 2100. Barrier islands, like Vero Beach, Clearwater Beach, will be gone long before that. I have lived in and loved both these places.
The most prescient climate scientist has been James Hansen, the former NASA scientist during Bush who initially rang the alarm when the Administration tried to muzzle him.
Hansen is the only one who has the science and the intuitive ability together. I haven't kept up with the latest studies so would love to hear if he has revised his 2016 predictions.
@coyote, I agree that sea level rise is only part of the future picture. But it's easier to gage than the other aspects of climate warming, such as drought, wind speed, fires, extreme storms, species death and pestilence. Sea level Rise is also an indicator of the extent of global warming. By the time we reach 20 feet sea level rise, the other indicators will be off the charts.
@jeanne-mayell You've projected that 2030 will another pivot point year like 2020. But the big theme in 2030 will be climate change and a collective recognition that we're dealing with an exponential process. Can you say anything more about what will be in store for us in 9 years?
Just did a quick vision. When I read your question, I see storms at a level never seen before, and frequent enough for people to realize we have to change housing construction in some areas to deal with these storms. At the moment I am seeing tropical areas, palm trees bending sideways, torrential rains, extraordinary high winds. Cars rolling over like tumble weed. In the West, fires will cause more migration. And drought will change the rules about what can be grown. New drought-resistant staples. Infrastructure changes big time: all electric cars, no more gas stations, just electric fueling stations, home heating will be changed. It's going to be a big march towards all sustainable fuel.
The storms and fires will be in the news, but we will be okay. We've weathered worse in the political landscape. People will become activated and there will be so many helpers devoting their lives to helping people adjust to the new normal.
I think I got that figure from:
Both the low-end and “worst-case” possibilities were revised upward in 2017 following a review by the U.S. Interagency Sea Level Rise Taskforce. Based on their new scenarios, global sea level is very likely to rise at least 12 inches (0.3 meters) above 2000 levels by 2100 even on a low-emissions pathway. On future pathways with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, sea level rise could be as high as 8.2 feet (2.5 meters) above 2000 levels by 2100.
Oh and wow to your vision. Thanks for sharing that. I really hope we can also be smart at protecting marine life somehow when the temperature of the oceans change. I feel very concerned about food shortages due to farming being affected as well. We don't seem to be preparing for this very well.
I'm not going to lie, I'm terrified of what is going to happen with the changing climate but I know that eventually, we'll pull through. When I think about 2030+ till 2100 I have two subjects in my mind first "Climate Change" and second "Rebuilding". I also believe that in next 10-20years onward animal conservation would gain a lot of momentum and importance and while lots of species would go extinct in the wild,I think that many of them would be secured by the efforts of zoos and the governments to preserve as much of them as possible in captivity.
As for the ocean, I think we'll find a way to create efficient cooling machinery to help with the worst hot spots. Not a cure-it-all solution but something that would help at least partially. I remember seeing a project of that kind on the internet, it has been a while ago but I think it might have worked by releasing small ice caps or something similar, I'm not entirely sure but the machine definitely stuck out to me at that time.
Unfortunately, some lessons are harsh and hard to learn but ultimately the disaster would teach us love and respect we somewhat lost along the way. As much as the situation is dire I think it has to happen one way or another for us as a whole to change our ways.
@ana @polka, I feel we are going to make it as well and I appreciate your hopeful attitudes. I am hopeful too. But I'm not comfortable with the arrogant attitude of years' back that technology will solve the climate problem. Global warming happened because the drivers of our civilization are so arrogant that they think they can continue living as we always have, consuming more and more, treating the earth like a waste dump and endless supply house. So first we have to realize who is the boss -- it's Mother Earth.
Two comments I got to a climate prediction article I posted eight years show that people simply don't understand the sheer size of the earth compared to our piddling selves. Here's one:
Comment: Could a large lake be built to drain off the rising water from climate change?
Jeanne: That’s an interesting question that helps us get a sense of the situation we are in. The seas cover 70% of the globe. To reduce the sea level rise by only 1 ft, you would need 3 ft of water on all the earth’s land. If the seas rise just 20 feet, (and eventually they will rise 220 feet), a rough calculation is that the lake would cover the whole U.S. and be about 70 feet deep, give or take 10 feet. Once all the earth’s ice melts, and it will melt, that lake will be 700 feet deep not to mention, how the heck are we going to move all that water to heights that are way above seal level?
@jeanne-mayell You're right, maybe I was overly optimistic ^^''' I hope that we'll find a balance between technology and nature at some point. I think that we (as a humans) thought we are above nature for so long we forgot we part of it. Its about time we started to return to it instead of taking from it.
You also right with saying that Mother Earth is the boss, she knows what to do. Oddly enough, although I'm terrified of all the changes I also anticipate them at the same time, afterall it has to get bad in order to get better.
A more detailed map:
(Click the 'choose map' option at the top and you will be able to change water level, year etc)
Also this article below explains what the sea level rise will do just in the UK alone, which is pretty damaging, but elsewhere it will probably be much worse:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/parts-uk-could-completely-submerged-24370412
@luminous Thank you for that map. It is safe to assume that the options to click are "most pessimistic" and "bad luck". I say this not because I am pessimistic and think we are in for bad luck. But because the climate projections have been magical thinking so far. They are unrealistic and I can feel how clueless people are. We continue to burn more and every bit of fossil fuel that is spewed into the atmosphere will take 500 or more years to dissipate. So it's additive.
But I am optimistic. I think our species will survive. We will learn to adapt and we will change our way of life and we will make it. But everything we do now to cut back and adapt will make it easier on our progeny.
I love @polarberry's post about desalination. Technologically it is one of the most important things we can do now to make it through.
Hi there, I had emailed Jeanne about some concerns I have that go beyond the typical thinking on climate change and she suggested I post something, so here goes.
Rising sea levels are important, but there are other earth science factors, especially geology, that we don't often think about how warmer temperatures will impact things. It's not as simple as sea levels and land elevations.
Think of what Edgar Cayce said about land rising and sinking in unexpected places. A lot of that is geology. You have to consider how the tectonic plates move, changes in pressure on the underlying rock formations, the weight of water shifting from the poles when ice melts, the loss of rock structure from fracking, underground salt formations that can dissolve when exposed to water. There's a ton of geology that could impact the outcome.
When the earth's crust warms because of climate, everything expands, putting extra forces on faults and volcanoes. It's like cooking an egg, apply heat to the outside, the inside heats up too. Rocks push against each other with more force, lava may start to move, etc.
Same with water, as no one talks about the weight of water and how it impacts the tectonic plates. The weight of extra water on the coastal areas will likely cause areas to sink and rise in unexpected ways. I think we'd need some sort of AI prediction method that factors in the atmosphere, the extra water, the geology, etc in addition to droughts, quakes, etc.
Two examples I can think of is a big quake in 1700 off the coast of Washington that caused a five foot drop in land and drowned part of a forest (and caused a tsunami in Japan) and a sinkhole in Louisiana that basically ate an entire town because an oil operator drilled in the wrong place, punched a hole in a salt dome, the dome collapsed due to water infiltration and collapsed the surface lands in the area. You can Google the Bayou Corne sinkhole if you want to see it in action.
I'm not trying to scare anyone, only point out it's likely more than just coastal land, droughts, fire and quakes that can happen from climate change.
Jeanne, please add anything I mentioned but left out here that might be helpful to consider.
@mb Thank you for the alternate geological perspective. I look at the oil being pumped off the Southern California coast and keep wondering if there will be a price to pay for it. Took your suggestion and googled The Bayou Corne sinkhole. The pollution and human toll is horrifying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-oykLjCcpc
@mb Thank you for sharing about how global warming affects the earth's crust. Seismic shifts and the impact of warming on the earth's crust are a much neglected area of global warming. When the Haiti earthquake happened, no one even ventured to explain whether the weight of expanding seas may have put pressure on the tectonic plates. One group of scientists did promulgate the theory that global warming was a cause in that the weight of mud slides from strong global warming-related rain storms had caused the quake. They surmised that all that mud sliding from Haiti into the sea put pressure on the earth's crust.
In the 1970's psychics were seeing earth changes up ahead that involved seas rising 20 miles inland on the Eastern Seaboard, a shift in the magnetic polls, and volcanic eruptions. I was skeptical about the psychic predictions of earthquakes and volcanos, but I now can see how warming can do that.
Then there is the impact of warming on continental tables. Back in 2014 I read that the Eastern Seaboard is actually sinking because it is one end of a great continental table of North America. On another end is Northern Canada's coastline which is rising up as the permafrost there melts. So as the continental table rises up in Northern Canada, it tilts down on the eastern seaboard. I read about this in 2014 but here is a more recent description of it in the Harvard Gazette.
The speed of the Gulf Stream is another factor. It's been slowing down since 2004, after alternating decades of speeding up and slowing down. Warming seas and all that fresh water melt off of Greenland cause it to slow down, and when it slows down two things happen:(1) more water that had been pulled into the Gulf Stream by its fast-moving current then sloughs back onto the eastern seaboard causing more sea level rise there, and (2) the world gets even warmer because when the Gulf Stream is moving quickly, it takes the warm water of the Caribbean up to the North Atlantic where it sinks it down into the cooler deep ocean. So the Gulf Stream has helped to temper the heat of global warming, but when it slows down, it doesn't temper that heat any more. Instead that heat gets released to the surface where we live. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44875508
I've got some new visions of global warming up ahead that I will be posting soon.
@coyote, I was wondering if you had any thoughts about the eastern seaboard sea level rise I mentioned? I remember you had looked into it.
@jeanne-mayell That seaboard rise is exactly what I meant. I think about it like a floatie in a pool where you try to get on, and as you push down on one side the other side flies up. Another thing to Google is the North American craton which is the more stable part of the continent.
You're totally right about the changing ocean currents. I look forward to hearing your new predictions. There are so many factors that I wouldn't begin to grasp how to factor them all in.
@TheUngamer that's a great version of the sinkhole story, thanks for the link. I hope the drilling off the California coast doesn't have those impacts since the Pacific side is squishing together. I would think the Atlantic side might suffer more from drilling since that side is spreading via the Atlantic ridge. It's so complicated.
Interesting comments and thread. I humbly add my reflections:
The climate is not in crisis. Humans and other earth ecosystems are. Solution is a matter of perspective, holistic or immediate. Look at the chain of events that has gotten us here. Look way past the discovery of black gold. Look at the quest for empire domination and riches that mowed everything and everyone down that got in its way to establish today. That same energy is raging today, strong stronger! And now the snake is eating its tail because it has met its cosmic/karmic past, present and future. In all of human panic, few speak of changing the paradigm that has driven this era. Once a holistic hard and honest look is taken that includes a spiritual evolution and karmic reckoning, then perhaps the physical "solutions" along with the spiritual soul evolution will take mother earth down another trajectory (not the Venus or Mars scenario). She has said enough, the ancestors have said enough. This is the ride we are on now. Hold on!
Look way past the discovery of black gold. Look at the quest for empire domination and riches that mowed everything and everyone down that got in its way to establish today. That same energy is raging today, strong stronger!
Thanks for weighing in and welcome to our community! I can happily say that nearly everyone here agrees with these sentiments and has been expressing them in one way or another for the past six years that we've have this forum. We are looking for a paradigm change, a sea change, not just a reduction in parts per million carbon. And to save ourselves in any meaningful way, we will have to make that sea change. I could say much more, but I wanted to assure you that you are among people who feel exactly the way you feel.
Back in 1989, Michael Crighton's mathematician character in Jurassic Park famously expressed a sentiment that is similar to your first point that the climate is not in crisis. It is humans who are in crisis, which was the most important point I got out of the whole book. The characters were talking about how we have to take care of the planet, and not destroy it. Ian Malcom, the mathematician character, said, "Let's be clear. The planet is not in jeopardy. We are in jeopardy. We haven't got the power to destroy the planet or save it. We only have the power to save ourselves." In other words, the planet will go on for billions of years the way it has always gone on. The question is whether humans, who have only appeared in the last blink of an eye, will be able to survive.