The Cascadia predictions are based on actual science but no one should freak out about them. The odds of anything happening in the near term and causing mass destruction are low.
Exactly. 1 in 10 chance over fifty years - there are greater worries than this.
As a resident of western Washington state, I’m definitely familiar with that New Yorker article on the Cascadian Subduction zone and the Juan de Fuca plate. The twitter earthquake guy sure sounds radical to me, @sistermoon. I follow earthquake activity because of my location and I have never seen any reputable researcher publish a global warning like the Canadian Earthquake Researcher on twitter. In my travel around Northwest coastal areas, I’m always reminded of our vulnerability to tsunamis because tsunami evacuation routes are posted in every coastal town. And I also know that there have been major tsunamis that hit the northwest centuries ago.
Now I’m not especially tuned into earthquakes, but others like @Tonya on our site are. For what it’s worth, I don’t have any sense of impending cataclysmic earthquakes. (Aren’t we dealing with enough already with global pandemic, ongoing political insurgency in the U.S, inflation, global warming, recession and Russia invading Ukraine? Seriously, we need a break.)
(Aren’t we dealing with enough already with global pandemic, ongoing political insurgency in the U.S, inflation, global warming, recession and Russia invading Ukraine? Seriously, we need a break.)
True -- but that's precisely why I thought it best to get everyone's spidey senses on this -- at this point, if Godzilla emerged from the sea, I wouldn't even think twice about it 🤣 🤣
Ok. So like most things it is both fact and fiction.
There are areas with “jammed” tectonic plates. These areas do produce larger than normal earthquakes (7-9 on the scale). It produces what is called a back-arc thrust earthquake.
Is there a mega quake that will shake the world apart. Not likely. (Yellowstone Eruption is much more likely)
Are earthquakes changing frequency, yes. But science seems to believe this is part of a natural process. According to the USGS, statistically we should have around 16 major quakes a year. In the past 5 decades we have exceeded that average over a dozen times. Some years more, some years less. Part of the natural process.
article mentioning “jammed” tectonic plates:
article on average quakes per year:
article on average quakes per year:
The important takeaway from that article is this:
The ComCat earthquake catalog contains an increasing number of earthquakes in recent years--not because there are more earthquakes, but because there are more seismic instruments and they are able to record more earthquakes.
The important takeaway from that article is this:
The ComCat earthquake catalog contains an increasing number of earthquakes in recent years--not because there are more earthquakes, but because there are more seismic instruments and they are able to record more earthquakes.
What is interesting is that this guy is arguing that there has actually been a significant reduction in the number of earthquakes coming from the area in question (he says the epicenter will be near the Philippines), which he argues is an indicator of a lead-up to a major event.
Which is not to say I believe him -- I actually don't have any intuitive senses regarding this at all -- but I do appreciate everyone's input and am enjoying the conversation 😊
@sistermoon Haha! As soon as wrote my whine about all the things we are dealing with, I regretted it. Just because I’m tired of daily, weekly, yearly crises, doesn’t mean there’s a magical limit at which all disasters must stop. As Jeanne teaches in her tarot class, when you pull the wheel of fortune card, it doesn’t matter whether you’re on the top of the wheel or the bottom. What really matters is how you ride the wheel. There will be periods of life when all is rosy and you’re contented and there will be periods of life when you struggle. I realize I’m philosophizing and digress from the issues at hand. I’ve really enjoyed this topic and all the responses. Thank you!
What is interesting is that this guy is arguing that there has actually been a significant reduction in the number of earthquakes coming from the area in question (he says the epicenter will be near the Philippines), which he argues is an indicator of a lead-up to a major event.
It is true that when a fault zone goes "quiet" there is a good chance that excessive stress is building up on the fault.
Faults are fractures where there is relative movement of the lithosphere (that's crust and uppermost mantle) on either side of the fracture. These blocks of lithosphere are compelled to move by mantle convection and other forces. They *want* to move. When there's constant, smooth movement of the lithospheric blocks on either side of a fault, everything is hunky-dory and there are only very small, but frequent earthquakes which usually don't cause problems. But if the blocks get stuck trying to move, a lot of stress builds up, and when the stress finally overcomes the strength of the rock, the blocks may move suddenly and often very violently, releasing all that pent-up energy as seismic waves.
Therefore, if a fault has been seismically "quiet" there is a concern that when the movement does come, it has to make up for all that "quiet time" by letting loose with a "big one". This may or may not happen. A lucky "break" (ha ha, I made a pun!) could happen if a few medium quakes occurred to release the stress, instead of one big one. And it's pretty much impossible to predict with any precision when or if the "big one" or the "medium ones" might come.
@ana Very interesting -- thank you for this explanation!
While this fella definitely seems dubious (not sure sure about some of the accounts he follows and his likes are equally odd), I'll continue to monitor his account and report any interesting updates, and anyone who has any visions or dreams of impending doom can update also.
And hopefully, if he IS onto something, those medium quakes occur to release any built-up stress.
But fingers crossed he's 🤪