Ian is now forecast to slow down quite a lot as he nears Tampa Bay. Looking at the tracking maps, it looks like the movement on Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday could be less than 100 miles in 12 hours. This may be very bad for the Tampa Bay area because the storm surge will be pushing water in the bay for 24 hours or more. Furthermore, the track now has Ian making landfall just north of Tampa Bay, putting the bay on the right-hand side of the storm. The right hand side is the worst for storm surge because of the counter-clockwise circulation of the winds. The bay is shallow and surrounded by urbanization. A lot of built up areas will be flooded, barring a change in Ian's course and/or predicted speed. There is a mandatory evacuation order in place for coastal Pinellas County (St Pete, Clearwater, Tarpon Springs etc.) ( https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2022/09/26/pinellas-officials-urge-evacuation-ahead-ian-get-out-right-now/
I think Tampa Bay is the area that's going to need the most help, in whatever form.
Track and cone of uncertainty may be viewed at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/223342.shtml?cone#contents
I know it's crazy but I love these storms. Obviously they can mess with the well-being of humans and the built environment, but in themselves they have an beautiful, rejuvenating, cleansing energy. And they serve to remind us of the awesome power of nature. I like to sneak out briefly and feel the wind and the rain, watch the treetops blow around, and take in some of the energy when it's not dangerously intense.
You are right, it is crazy. But i have always felt the same way about these storms. Just try to appreciate the rarity and the rawness of the moment- if you survive, there will be plenty of time to worry about how bad the house and car got trashed in the months and years afterwards.
As a surfer kid, these storms were the only times there would be like, actual California type waves on the Gulf Coast. My parents would have been horrified, had they known why i was always so interested in watching the weather report.
One of my nieces has just moved to Tampa, with her kids. Now i kind of know how worried my parents must have felt. But i also hope that she will take a moment to just breathe it all in.
@ana, I also love the storms and love going out in them. I wish you good protection in this one.
I have family all around Tampa on the coast. In my life, from early childhood onwards, I spent more vacation time on Clearwater Beach than any other. The authorities have totally evacuated Clearwater Beach.
But one family member texted me at 3:45 am. He is driving home from a vacation right into the storm, to secure his home. He's just outside the evacuation area, so he says he's not worried. I’d be concerned though if I were him because this is do-nothing Florida which is not much different than Texas in its rampant development and lack of concern for the environment and anyone there than the very wealthy.
Praying for protection to all in Florida and hopes that the only things that are adversely effected are the reputations of Ron Deathsentence, Rick Scott, and the rest of the Florida cronies who passed a rule a few years ago that no government employee can use the term "global warming."
@unk-p, @ana, I live on the NC coast. We call it hurricane alley here. I'm south of the outer banks, but we get hit just as often as the OBX which comprise 2/3rds of our coastline. I've been through more storms than I can remember. I've stayed through most, even a handful that were so destructive their names were then retired. I live on a peninsula so I'm surrounded by water on 3 sides. River is to my west by half a mile, intercoastal & Atlantic to my south & east by 1.5 - 2.5 miles. It is amazing to watch these storms roll in. They all have unique personalities. Some are mostly bluster, while others are all rain, & there are some which are an incredible combination of both. Longtime locals know what to do, when to stay & when to go. People with relatives inland leave more frequently, where those who don't & those with pets tend to stay. It helps making the decision to evacuate knowing the wind rating of your home. Mine was rated to 130 mph when it was built (top end of Cat 3). The surfers love the storms coming in. Even those which are far off shore & never come close will pick up wave heights here. I typically watch in awe, but there have been a few that have rattled me. I have a cousin who lives most of the year in Ft. Meyers Beach (summers are spent north in Rehobeth Beach), and my aunt is in a nursing facility in St. Petersburg. My cousin is anxious being north while her ailing mom is currently on the cusp of manditory evacuation areas.
I, too, have loved storms but echoing Lovendures, I urge Floridians not to be sanguine about this one. The NOAA maps anticipate a storm surge of 6-8 ft in some areas, which, on top of a slow storm dumping many inches of rain will not show the extent of danger. Responders will be overwhelmed so leave if you are in the path of this storm.
I was glad that this public official didn't mince words:
As far as natural hazards go, hurricanes are polite. Unlike tornadoes or earthquakes, they give you ample advance warning of their arrival and time to prepare and/or evacuate. Ignoring the warnings is the thing that usually kills people.
Having had a child in the Air Force and stationed at MacDill AFB USSOCOM I know they take these things seriously. They have already evacuated planes, and airmen and NASA has moved Artemis back in from launchpad to assembly hangar. When my child was there... as an USAF parent I was signed on to house up 4 airmen if needed during evacuation periods... being a normally 7 hours drive straight up I-75.
"MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, has issued an “installation-wide mandatory evacuation” by Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET for “non-mission essential individuals, including uniformed service members” and dependents, the facility said on its Twitter account on Monday."
MacDill Air Force Base has about 6,000 military and civilian personnel, according to the base's website.
If you have ever visited the base you know it's prone to flooding and a storm like Ian? With 10+ plus storm surge? Will inundate it.
It is a very large storm and will strength as it swirls in the gulf before coming ashore...before coming up through Georgia.
My thoughts are? Be prepared for the worst and pray/hope for the best. In Florida? finish prep today... in Georgia get going and start if you haven't already. Tho since we have a lot of monster tornadoes.. most of us keep a Bug Out Bag and emergency supplies for tornadoes or winter weather that shuts things down.
Stay safe everyone... have a feeling Ian will be a doozie!
Not storms , but I love setting out on the porch, and watching it rain. I like smelling the coming rain.
So many folks here have once lived near Tampa Bay.
And a couple weeks ago some expressed opinions that that whole area needed a good cleansing.
I think that wish is about to manifest... and not just by cleaning some condos off the beach (where they never should have been built), but water really is a spiritual cleansing agent and disasters tend to reset people's priorities. ( witness COVID for example)