Will the movie going industry survive Covid?
A movie industry artist, I think she's a screenwriter, has asked me if movie theaters are going to survive Covid.
Christopher Nolan and James Cameron are urging Congress to help save movie theaters. They had gotten support from movie theater employees, and dozens of other filmmakers who want to maintain the moviegoing tradition no matter what. Will they succeed in getting Congress to save movie theaters.
Will movie theaters and the tradition of moviegoing recover from the outbreak with help, especially once things calm down?
I will try to weigh in when I can, but if anyone wants to throw cards or meditate on this subject, please do!
As I asked the community the question about the future of movie theaters, I was seeing in my mind's eye a return to smaller community based theaters, instead of the behemoth theaters. Community theaters could end out being locally subsidized, but they'd have to be able to do some kind of deal with the movie industry for that to work.
I for one do hope to get back to the local theatre when covid is over.
Okay, third post on the movie industry with no new information except that I miss and love the movies. I want to go to the movies again, and I want to go to local movies where I know people, not those giant corporations outside of town. The movies kept this country going during WWII. The movies has moved our culture forward in so many ways. We have to keep the movie theaters.
I believe that over the next few years, this country will move back to local, to community based activities, and the movies, if and when that will be safe again, are so much a part of that.
When we were kids we went to the movies every Saturday morning at 9 am. All the kids in town were there. We used to throw our flattened popcorn boxes at the screen when we didn't like the villain. Okay it was hard on the screen, but it was a blast.
My mom who is pretty intuitive (even if she would deny that) has said something very similar recently. We live in a small Military town in NC. NC entered Phase 3 of reopening this past week, which allowed movie theaters to reopen. However the larger chains (AMC, etc) are only reopening in larger cities, such as Raleigh. I can definitely see some of the bigger chains scaling back to large cities where there's more people. Then the smaller areas going back to having more local movie theaters. I too miss going to the movies, and can't wait for the day it's safe to return.
Am in the process of assembling the Wednesday Night Read the Future predictions and here is one from AK for July 2021: Movie going is back. A Marvel movie makes over $1 billion in the global box office. (AK). When I asked him about it, he said he didn't see the movie theater industry returning to pre-covid status. I feel the same.
That is what they are doing here on Long Island drive in movie theaters. The only draw back it’s old movies. If you want to go out, it still beats staying at home. Not only drove in movie theater now they are drive through haunted attractions
That is what they are doing here on Long Island drive in movie theaters. The only draw back it’s old movies.
It is old movies because those venues don't have contracts with the movie industry to show the latest movies. That is why I wrote earlier that the movie theaters I see in the future are more local likely subsidized and they will need a wholly different arrangement with Hollywood if they are going to have the licensing to show top movies.
Yes, but it won't be the same, and that's actually a good thing in many ways. The fracturing of the movie industry will accelerate with movies in theaters even more concentrating on large-scale "event" type films (like Marvel's Avengers films, Star Wars, etc).
But I think even more content will be distributed on streaming services which has actually democratized a lot of filmmaking, i.e. streaming has allowed a lot of films to be made that would NEVER get financed or distributed in the traditional model.
There will be even more films/content that are small and intimate, requiring smaller casts and crew that can maintain safety precautions. Because of the smaller economics, they won't have to pander to the giant 4-Quadrant blockbuster Hollywood formula that focuses so strongly on white, middle-class teenage to twenty something men.
By bypassing traditional movie distribution and they're also able to find audiences online that would not otherwise be able to find them. A movie like Alice Wu's "The Half of It" IF it could get financed (big IF) would have never made it to the rural areas where it really NEEDS to be seen but now anyone can see it in the comfort of their own bedroom.
As many of my filmmaking and writing friends pointed out, the loudest voices for keeping Netflix out of the Academy Awards were from established, white male filmmakers who have benefitted from the old boys club of Hollywood that's always justified making movies for and about white men because of the economics of it. That's changing now, and the public health situation is just accelerating that change.
Here is what one reader (the one who sent me predictions from Read the Future Night) said after I asked him about his movie theater prediction:
I'm not sure theaters will be back in the US how they once we're. I have followed the box office since 2002. AMC and Regal, the two biggest theater chains are facing massive financial difficulties that they most likely can't recover from. They are both hundreds of millions in debt and no major movie is coming out this year in the US. Most likely, the big theater chains go out of business and their theaters get bought out by other companies. Outside the US, movie going probably gets better. China, especially, is doing really well right now. (AK)
It seems very likely, especially since most of the studios have been pushing release dates or releasing films for streaming instead. I've seen this story floating around the past few days about the debt AMC owes. I'm sure Regal and others are in a similar boat.
https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/default-warning-amc-credit-rating-downgrade-1234790910/
It's a pitty that like other industries, the movie theater business is pretty much a monopoly in a lot of cities. So one chain goes down and many cities won't have alternative options for some time.
Regal movies theaters are closing all locations.
I am for the use of films that have diverse angles/details, but I am also for the traditional use of theatrical releases. I want to use them both, a hybrid of sorts. Plus, somehow, I always think that Netflix should help out with the reconstruction of movie theaters.
Plus, there's a new film adaptation of DUNE coming soon. It was delayed until 2021, will it, in a way, help with the rebuilding of cinema post-COVID?
I think cinema will come back. I just do. I threw some cards and they were very positive about the return of the cinema. But it will take time. I was just thinking about it and realized that once people are no longer afraid to be together with strangers, once there is a vaccine, there will be a market for going to the big silver screen. There simply is not substitute for getting out for he night and seeing a film on a big screen. The only concern I have is the possibility that lurks in my mind of another pandemic. Anyone who is going to invest in movie theaters has that worry. That's why I can see smaller community based, and community subsidized theaters down the road rather than the big movie chains.
While cinema has only been around for a hundred years, theatre has been around for thousands. People like to go out, and gather together and enjoy watching actors tell us a story. I do not believe that will end.
...Oh... and I was being such a worrywart! All in all, I was starting to become more of a worrywart.
Amazing that once Trump is gone and his administration is toast, the government's going to have to help the theaters recover, one way or another. Recovery will take time. Who knew?
Well, thank you for the whole thing. I'm going to try to work on some stories about the ordeal, told allegorically within the science-fiction genre.
The Washington Post had an interesting article about how Covid is changing the film industry.
@jeanne-mayell I really hope you're right. It could take some help and some time for movie theaters to finally rebuild.
Even before Covid, I remember hearing rumors that the movie industry was losing business to online streaming. High prices to go out to the movies and high prices for concessions made it a luxury to many. I suspect lower prices for large screen televisions and sound systems are also making in-home streaming more desirable for many.
I'm a big movie and television person. I personally enjoy going out to the movies and typically go out to see anywhere from eight to a dozen movies in any given year (except this year, of course). To save money I usually go to lower priced matinees and have lunch before the movie so I'm not tempted to spend on concessions.
I remember going to drive-in theaters with family as a kid and would love to see those make a comeback. I've seen a few pop-up drive-in movies this year as a result of Covid. As someone mentioned in an earlier post, I would also love to see more diversity of independent films.