One part intuition, one part chess game.
I'll start with intuition: Last night when the news broke that she was confirmed, I felt heavy, but that went away quickly. I don't know if it's because we knew it was a forgone conclusion or what, but a sense of "It'll be okay, just hold on" took over me.
And the reason I didn't sleep last night was because I played chess with some outcomes in my mind. To be good in politics you have to be good at chess. I do not think Biden is going to expand the court -- if the ACA, even after almost a year in draft, debate, and revision was political suicide for the Democratic control of the senate in 2010, this is an even hotter potato. Biden may see himself as a transitional president, but he really has only two years to make a transition that proves to Americans that we're on the path we need to be on. If there's a big enough misstep he loses the senate in 2022.
I do think we'll see some constitutional amendments come out of this. I think most of American can get behind another amendment that overrules parts of Article II -- most particularly, the electoral college system. When people point to land maps of the US being mostly red with small pockets of blue, I tend to laugh -- in it's simplest form -- land does not vote. We've had two presidential elections in 20 years where the popular vote holder didn't win.
Judicial reform is a second one I think most Americans can get behind. Throughout history we've removed tons of judges from office so that part works, but the lifetime appointment piece is wrong at multiple levels. I could also see a scheme where the number of justices is directly tied to federal districts (which again, goes to population -- it would act a lot like how the house is structured on some levels.) This COULD expand the court (I think right now that would take us to 13) but sets a limit on the party of the day from using that as a threat in the future. That last part is a tougher sell but again, not out of the realm of reason, especially if it went into effect after the next election.
And finally, this is one someone else would have to weigh in on -- but, a constitutional amendment that overturns the Citizens United decision is something I think we can all agree on. We've absolutely seen in this election that Democrats have learned to operate under it's auspices. Just look at the money going in to Amy McGrath, Jamie Harrison, etc. Lots of small donors which is fine, but there's some big money back there too. Regardless of who it's working for the intent was for the will of the people to be ignored.
That last one may need to come before any of the others -- I don't want a repeat of 2008, just to live through 2010 and the subsequent years it took for Democrats to regain some semblance of control.
Here's hoping the intuition part is right. Who knows on the chess game I played.
Hi all - I agree with everyone here that this woman has had TERRIBLE cards. The one thing that cards are not as good at (at least for me) is time - so even though many of us felt that she wouldn't get in - this must mean that her tenure is very rocky and as many have noted, she will be marginalized. I've also heard rumblings that the dark money that is backing her will come to light (Sheldon Whitehouse alluded to this).
@writerjenny It needs to be three appointments to out number the conservative cabal.
@writerjenny It needs to be three appointments to out number the conservative cabal.
Not only that, but the 3 appointments must be replacements of conservative justices!
Moscow Mitch said he thinks ACB will be a "political asset" for rethug candidates. So there he is flat-out admitting that she was installed not to uphold the law, but to advance the thug agenda.
I hope Dems remember everything the thugs are saying right now, and not lose their spines, or cave to thug whining about fairness and civility. I've said it for years; thugs only care about those things when they don't hold power. You NEVER EVER fight fair with opponents who don't.
I am praying for a blue sweep of incredible magnitude. It has to be so. He is planning to steal the election through SCOTUS.
@barbarmar22 I saw two. The Knight of Pentacles- a younger man, hard working, kind, good energy, and the High Priestess- older, regal- she'll remind us of RBG. It'll return us to a balanced court, 4 liberal, 4 conservative, and a swing vote.
I'm concerned about the damage the Court can do in the meantime, but this is ultimately going to blow up in the GOP's face.
I wonder, too-when it comes out that T. colluded with foreign powers to steal 2016-how in the world can the judicial appointments of an illegitimate traitor president stand?
Could that tie in somehow to what you are seeing?
It could be because I have thrown cards for Amy many times, and they are always horrible. Or maybe it's proven she lied during the hearings, like Kavannaugh.
I disagree. I think Biden and the Democrats would be wise to add two more justices to the Supreme Court, not three. First, Democrats can logically argue that the Republicans stole two seats (Gorsuch and Barnette). But if you add three seats, Democrats would look petty and it would mean that Republicans would have justification to add seats if they ever got power again. Second, if you add two more justices, you force Roberts to be the swing judge (which he secretly likes to do anyway, as he relishes the power it gives him as well as ensure that the court won't become too politicized). Third, we have several justices such as Beyer (liberal) and Thomas (conservative) who are rather old (82 and 72, respectively). If they resign in the next few years (particularly Thomas), you can fill that seat with a liberal judge and do it in such a way that Republicans, due to their actions over the last few years, would be powerless to protest.
In short, I think Democrats should stack the court but only add two because they can honestly justify the need for two (their seats were stolen because Republicans played a double standard). That way, the Republicans are punished for failing to follow the Golden Rule (treat others as you want yourself to be treated), the balance of power is balanced in such a way that forces Roberts to vote with Democratic policies or face the prospect that more seats are added and he would loose all power, and getting two seats now could mean we add seats later if Republicans continue to disrupt the Government. Basically, we are telling Republicans "You stole two seats, so we are taking them back. But if you continue to disrupt the Government, then we will add even more seats."
It is just my opinion, of course. We have a lot of independent voters out there that I think would be ok with adding two seats after what the Republicans did, but would turn on Democrats if they added more than that.
I feel the presence of a black woman, promised by Biden, who will have more authority. I feel more depth and maturity here.
I found this interesting in light of this:
https://newsone.com/4031126/myra-selby-amy-coney-barrett-court-controversy/
Can you see what type of reading you can get concerning the Supreme Court about cases involving Trump right now? In particular, any cases Trump may launch to challenge the 2020 election results, whether or not they will pick up Trump's tax case again, and whether or not they will consider the case involving Jean Carroll (Today, the district judge in New York denied Trump's motion to let the State Department represent Trump in Carroll's defamation/rape case against him. Trump tried to claim that his actions of defamation occurred in his capacity as President, so the case needed to be taken to federal court, which would have ended in the case's dismissal).
I have been on pins and needles waiting to see if Trump's tax case will be taken up by the Supreme Court. I hope they don't, because that means Vance gets the tax records, and Trump (being Trump) will tweet threats and probably implicate himself in other crimes, which would be the perfect "October Surprise" for us.
That is very interesting (not to mention infuriating) and along those same lines, in one of Bill Palmer's latest articles, he talks about how Kavanaugh committed provable perjury, and is certain to be charged by a Biden DOJ. I remember a prediction from an earlier set that said, "Kavanaugh will be investigated." Maybe that pertains to a post-Twitler scenario and not his confirmation hearing?
AMEN! Democrats need to not only take power, but they need to make sure that Republicans are never in a position to abuse their power again. Possible avenues are the following:
1. Pass laws that makes it mandatory for Presidential candidates to release taxes before the election. (THIS IS A MUST!!!!!) Also laws on transparency and to ensure their are no more conflicts of interests. I propose they call these laws the "Trump Traitor Laws" or simply "Trump Laws" for short. Make sure we attach his name to something that will forever link Trump to his corruption.
2. Get rid of the gerrymandering that Republicans have used to win districts. From now on, districts must reflect the population of the states. One person=one vote. If this is implemented, Republicans would probably only have maybe a third of all state positions and seats.
3. Add two Justices to the bench to both punish Republicans for the way they stole two seats and to ensure that the court is evenly balanced.
4. Consider adding DC and Puerto Rico as states. This will tick Republicans off, as well as add more seats for Democrats or Independents.
5. STOP APOLOGIZING! We didn't cause this problem. It was Republicans who (1) shut down government and delay aid whenever they want, (2) deny climate change and refuse to take steps to protect our future, (3) in regards to abortion, passing laws that don't protect women who are the victims of rape, incest, or women who would die if forced to continue their pregnancies (Tennessee is one such state, much to my shame), (4) trying to take people's health care and not giving an alternative, (5) refuse to fight Covid-19 to protect lives, and (6) treat the rest of us with utter disrespect and cruelty even when we treat them with kindness (as we did in the Obama years). I say no more! We need to just take the steps we need to take and be proud of them! We need to stop trying to be nice to the Republicans in office. They had their chance, and they refused to be kind. So why should we bend over backward to try to keep from upsetting them. Being kind didn't work, so I say we need to be forceful and show them that their actions is what caused Democrats to take steps to actively take their power away.
6. Consider getting rid of the Electoral College. I don't foresee this happening right away, but it needs to be considered, because it has been another tool on how Republicans keep stealing elections and silencing the voters' will. It happened in 2000 and again in 2016. Why should millions of voters be penalized based on where they live? Shouldn't all votes carry equal weight?
7. Expand our power. Even if Trump is taken out in 2020, many pro-Trump Republicans will try to take back the House and the Senate in 2022. For once, the map favors us, so we need to ensure that every single Pro-Trump Republican is voted out in 2022. This will drive home to Republicans that Trumpism is not how they will survive as a party.
In short, I think Democrats should stack the court but only add two because they can honestly justify the need for two (their seats were stolen because Republicans played a double standard).
@allyn, my intent was to point out that it would be futile to expect we could flip the court merely by waiting for the opportunity to replace justices, because you don't know who would be stepping down. Maybe Thomas would leave due to poor health. But if a liberal justice required replacement, there is no net gain. And administratively removing K or ACB? Wishful thinking at this point. So I'm in agreement with all who propose adding a couple of justices.
In short, I think Democrats should stack the court but only add two because they can honestly justify the need for two (their seats were stolen because Republicans played a double standard).
@allyn, my intent was to point out that it would be futile to expect we could flip the court merely by waiting for the opportunity to replace justices, because you don't know who would be stepping down. Maybe Thomas would leave due to poor health. But if a liberal justice required replacement, there is no net gain. And administratively removing K or ACB? Wishful thinking at this point. So I'm in agreement with all who propose adding a couple of justices.
If I recall correctly, part of the reason that SCOTUS was kept at 9 was that at the time there were 9 federal circuit courts, so there would be one SC justice for each circuit. If that was in fact one of the justifications, there are now 13 FC courts, so adding 4 more SC Justices would not be out of line and would give us a 7-6 majority.
@allyn Remember, even if the democrats win, they will probably only have two years to fix things before the next election will change the senate again. The democrats. also need to get rid of the electoral college and go to popular voting. Will they do it?
So many references to darkness, not just on this site, but today, New Yorker's headline:
Justice Amy Coney Barrett Is Sworn In Under Darkness
"The nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to be an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court is confirmed! ” Chuck Grassely (R) said it as if he were announcing the winner on a game show, and the Republican senators in the room reacted accordingly, standing and cheering. Barrett wasn’t so much the victor as the prize—their prize."
The photo shows Trump grinning like he just got his coup d'état ace in the hole. Wrong.
@allyn Remember, even if the democrats win, they will probably only have two years to fix things before the next election will change the senate again. The democrats. also need to get rid of the electoral college and go to popular voting. Will they do it?
Things are a little better for them this time around. When they lost control of the House and Senate in 2010 it was bad for the same reason it's bad for the Republicans now. They controlled the legislature and the executive, passed a (for the time) controversial health care bill that rallied the base into anger, and then with redistricting reshaped the political landscape for 10 years. The Republicans are in the exact same -- if not worse situation than the Democrats were at that point because at least the ACA, warts and all, has become ingrained in us at this point. I'm not certain how you come back from "kill grandma to save the economy" and injustice like ACB in two short years -- and if they do, redistricting may make it moot. This isn't an "Apples to Apples" comparison, but we're at least comparing tree growing fruits here.
I think they can easily remain safe in 2022 unless they take the right steps in the wrong order. Like I posted elsewhere, putting time and energy into a constitutional amendment like one that might overturn the electoral college, after an election that ideally won't be another Bush v Gore is a good opening move. So is doing everything they can to dismantle citizens united. But moving too quickly on judicial reform could anger the base quickly. They CAN however, remove justices if an investigation is warranted and bears fruit. (Hint: Rhymes with Smavanaugh") It's been done once before for a supreme court justice (others pulled a Nixon and exited to get away from the issue) and operates exactly like impeachment - the House prepares articles, the senate tries them. It's been done many, many, many times for lower court justices as well.
My gut is still telling me not to worry about ACB in the long run. Can't tell you why, but I trust it.