Zoron is posting this short item re his work on the middle east crisis.
I have been taking a great deal of time and effort this last week,since my last significant post....trying to focus on nothing except the Middle East situation. Thi is now rapidly developing an unstoppable momentum...nobody is now really controlling events, events are controlling them. Grim, but true.
I have been doing a lot of Divination: about a dozen runs, by various methods.....they all same the same, and it is utterly paradoxical. Isreal, if they make military moves, will succeed in the early stages, the first phase. The Americans will back them. The Saudi's will support them, but actually prove to be completely useless, and will ultimately suffer serious consequences, as a result. The initial Israeli attacks, if they make them, will result in Isreali "Victories", in a manner of speaking. The isreali's will pause, and think and plan their next move. but events will overtake them. TheIranians will take legitimate reprisals and attacks, and it will be a great shock to the Americans and isreali's. I have posted about this in detail, elsewhere on this site. But the balance tilts. The damage done to the USA will be serious, not militarily, but politically and economically. It will result in a decisive break in the Western alliance. the Europeans will walk. America will witness the ultimate collapse of NATO. The Isreali's will become very isolated. The international economic damage will be severe. In a practical sense there will be no real victory over the Iranians, who will win, in practical terms. But repeatedly, I am getting the paradoxical outcome, of initial Isreali success, if they do attack. I also get that this is descending into a serious situation, but more realistic elements in Isreal are desperately trying to avoid this disaster. But without success, at the moment. Everything is now in a balance. Expect things to continue towards war, unless something significant happens, like a Russian ultimation.
Zoron, thank you. Very scary times. What do you see happening for Palestinians, do they have any hope or do they get wiped out completely?
Dina,
The situation may seem bad, but if a war breaks out, and The Israeli's attack Iran, they will have some success from Air strikes and missile strikes, but ultimately, will suffer considerable losses of aircraft and crews, and will face international uproar and protests. They have no way of using ground troops....But the Iranians can attack the Isreali occupied sector of the Golan and if they do this, will be supported by a massive ground attack by Hezbollah Forces from Lebanon, who have massive stockpiles of missiles. The Russians are also going to gauge very carefully their moves here. At a certain point, they will take action of some kind, if an actual war starts.
On the Palestinian issue, the awful atrocities being committednd against them by the Isreali's will not break them.....but will lead to further resistance in Gaza. The isreali's, if the war escalates, are seriously considering using it as an excuse to drive a section of the Palestinian population on the West bank into exile, as "Expelling terrorists", and seizing yet more land. If that happens, then the war will seriously escalate, and we are looking at a very dangerous situation. I have covered it all in my postings....None of this is certain, but what will happen if events go in a certain way. We have entered into a period of dangerous uncertainty, and my previous posts outline the various timelines......the next two weeks are critical.
Yes, Zoron, we are truly in times of dangerous uncertainty. This fiasco and now N. Korea threatening to pull out of the summit just makes these uncharted waters even more chaotic. I feel as if ANYTHING big and unexpected can happen between now and election 2020.
Very interesting times we have ahead of us.