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The Covid-19 Pandemic (When posting new information, please cite sources)

(@sidwich)
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Joined: 8 years ago
Posts: 48
 
Posted by: @laura-f

@enkasongwriter

I'm sorry, but this data looks very sketchy to me. There is no indication of which data they are compiling from what sources. It is an entity based in Singapore, which may or may not be a good thing.

A better source is the NY Times modeling by metro area in the US:
NY Times US Interactive

I don't think it will be possible to reach "100%" with SARS-CoV-2. We already know it mutates quickly, and there are now 12 different strains that all came from the "master strain" in Wuhan. It is more likely to become endemic - meaning it will always be circulating. You can track that here:  www.nextstrain.org

Lastly, for herd immunity to be considered successful generally requires 60% of a population to have become infected with coronavirus. By contrast, you need 90% herd immunity for things like mumps and measles. Small silver lining. A couple of links to reflect on that:
Popular Science

MIT Tech Review

Science Alert

To me, anyone who is saying we'll reach 100% of anything is spreading false hope. COVID-19 is here to stay, will most likely resurge in Fall, and then again in 2021.

 

I'm also somewhat skeptical of this model.  Just eyeballing it, it looks like it's predicting we should be around 10K new cases a day by now on their bell-shaped curve, and the data that I'm seeing (see Worldometer.com) indicates that we're still up at over 30K new cases a day as of yesterday.  That would make us at the very least 10 days behind their model, and the data looks much more like a plateau than a bell.



   
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(@goldstone)
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Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 108
 

So my friend just told me today that her mother is tested possitive for Covid. But here's the thing: She had it the late 2019 and everyone in the family at the time thought she had a flu.

Strange. I wonder what that means in general.



   
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(@Anonymous)
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@allyn

I had read a story about police officer in Florida that gets seasonal allergies and he got tested and he was positive for Covid.

I am in NY they are making testing available and emergency clinics and even pharmacies. I think it’s great more places to get tested instead of getting it through the government. 



   
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(@jeans3head)
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Joined: 7 years ago
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@goldstone it means the body does not produce antibodies. It is like the common cold in that sense. How long have we been trying to cure the COMMON COLD? My doctor, who has been my primary care physician for 35 years told me the reason they ask you how long have you had your symptoms is because a virus will turn into a bacterial infection after about 10 days. What makes this virus so terrible is the ease that it spreads and the power of it’s striking. Even dogs and cats are getting it. Even if we do reach herd immunity, it will still strike with force.

  I remember when they came out with a vaccine for LYMES DISEASE. My daughter and I went to my doctor to ask for the vaccine as we had both had it. It was and is a devastating disease. He told us “No!” We were very upset. A few months later I was hearing stories of people who did get the lymes vaccine and they developed MS...... JUST A NOTE TO BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!



   
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(@Anonymous)
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Trump has tried to blame everyone but him on the pandemic. He is now asking US spies to find “evidence” that is started in lab in Wuhan. Let’s play a game that he correct on this. It still does not excuses him for not getting ready for this in time to save American citizens. It is well know that he was told in briefings since January and he just doesn’t read and did not care.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/us/politics/trump-administration-intelligence-coronavirus-china.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR2t1Oo5K9-B2aaSgfJHKYsYxnsBMMHswLMclXSwYtZyCVBDcFAXyMN9yKo



   
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(@triciact)
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Joined: 8 years ago
Posts: 1146
 

We here in CT are on a downward slope (yay) and if it continues we will be in a soft-reopening of businesses on May 20th. Hairdressers, nail salons and only OUTdoor restaurant seating will be available with distance restrictions. I for one can't wait to have my hair done and nails so I'm looking forward to it.

One gal in Georgia told me that when she went to her hairdresser recently she had to stay in the car, they came out to get her. She was not allowed to bring in her phone, purse etc. and that she had to put her keys in her pocket and the money in a little baggie for when she paid. The stylist wore a mask and gloves, and she changed the gloves often, after each procedure (coloring etc) and each person.

I don't plan on going to restaurants until much later than the end of May, and my vacation is going to be by my pool - IF this darn cold spell we're having goes away. My God-daugher's wedding is still on for July 2nd but I can't see her being able to have 200 people. She'll be lucky if 50 people are allowed in the same room that can hold hundreds.



   
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(@triciact)
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@jeans3head

My husband's cousin was misdiagnosed back in her 30s. She had lymes but was told it was MS. Because they never treated her promptly for Lymes, she is now in her 40s in a wheel chair and is losing movement now in her hands too. It's so sad.

I was diagnosed a few years ago with Lymes from a Spider bite! the spider must have chowed down on a deer tick is my guess. I went to a Lymes specialist who only took cash or credit but no insurance. I was on antibiotics for 6 months and was finally feeling like a human being. Seeing what happened to my husband's cousin gave me some ammunition to seek help when the medical community (at the time) was being told there was no such thing (years ago) as chronic Lyme disease. That's why the specialist had to do it without taking insurance otherwise he would have lost his medical license. Things are different now though.



   
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(@enkasongwriter)
Noble Member
Joined: 8 years ago
Posts: 424
 

New York Parks are open already, albeit for solitary walks or hikes. Likely many businesses will open on May 15, albeit soft open. By late May or early June, most businesses will be able to reopen.



   
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(@mcance)
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Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 26
 

my state plans on opening golf courses and parks this week but with restrictions on social distancing everything else plans to open on the 8th i pray that people will take this seriously because my state has been considered a hot spot and still is considered to be one i keep seeing cases climb up but also keep seeing the curve flatten mid may. 



   
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(@frank)
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Posted by: @laura-f

@enkasongwriter

...

I don't think it will be possible to reach "100%" with SARS-CoV-2. We already know it mutates quickly, and there are now 12 different strains that all came from the "master strain" in Wuhan. It is more likely to become endemic - meaning it will always be circulating. You can track that here:  www.nextstrain.org

...

 

Actually this virus mutates relatively slowly (much more slowly then the influenza virus), which means a vaccine will be much more effective then the current flu vaccine.  So while it will always be around, it will be more like mumps, measles and rubella.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutation-rate.html



   
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