I just heard back from a virologist and professor friend of mine who was gracious enough to answer some questions I had about the possibilities of antibodies for this virus and about a vaccination. Here is his response:
Covid is caused by Sars Coronavirus 2, which is a large RNA virus. What this means is it has a moderate ability to mutate compared to a simple DNA virus like HPV. As a result, sometimes having antibodies does not mean durable protection. This is because complex RNA viruses play tricks on the immune system, essentially telling them to make antibodies to a non-essential protein- it’s a smokescreen strategy. Still though, most (90%) of people w normal immune function will develop strong immune protection. But this issue will not be a problem for vaccine efforts, which are directed at the S glycoprotein, which is essential for infection. What we are worried about are those ppl w latent or chronic infections which can keep the outbreak going by infecting ppl after we return to work. So, it’s not like a regular cough virus, it may continue to harass us until we have a vaccine or effective drug. Nonetheless, I have lots of confidence that we will innovate our way out of this, as we always do before. But we have to be careful (covidulant) in the mean time.
What I took away from this conversation.
1. He is hopeful. Hopeful for treatment and/or hopeful for a good vaccine. He is confident that we can be innovative and figure something out. We have figured out difficult things in the past.
2. Having antibodies may be helpful for most, but not all people.
3. In some people who harbor latent/chronic infections, they will continue to spread the virus after things return to "normal".
4. We really need an effective vaccine or drug treatment .
One thing I'd like to add to that is that as time progresses and the virus mutates, it will become less and less deadly. Add to that the fact that each day we learn more of how it attacks the body and can develop treatments for its major issues. Getting covid 2 years from now will probably still be very possible but it will not be the same life threatening risk it is today. I see it eventually ending up in the repertoire of seasonal flus we have gotten used to and pose minimal threat, just as the Spanish flu has.
This is a concern. Asymptomatic farm workers in Washington state are testing positing for Covid-19 a study has found.
One thing I'd like to add to that is that as time progresses and the virus mutates, it will become less and less deadly. Add to that the fact that each day we learn more of how it attacks the body and can develop treatments for its major issues. Getting covid 2 years from now will probably still be very possible but it will not be the same life threatening risk it is today. I see it eventually ending up in the repertoire of seasonal flus we have gotten used to and pose minimal threat, just as the Spanish flu has.
What is your basis for saying "as time progresses and the virus mutates, it will become less and less deadly"? Per my understanding, this is not a given. In 1918, for example, the Spanish Flu mutated into a deadlier strain in round two.
a lot of people that are very sick with covid have been using plasma this is something that doctors should start focusing on until there is a vaccine plasma donations for the ones who have been suffering with covid have been recovering from using plasma this could save a lot of lives.
A virus that is less virulent has a better chance of spreading. People who are gravely ill do not move around and come into contact with many others. Thus as the virus mutates, the strains that usually get passed around fastest are the ones that keep the population less ill and thus mobile. The extremely virulent ones tend to stay localized to a specific location and episode (think Ebola vs. common cold, both corona viruses)
In 1918, it is theorized that WWI changed this dynamic. The least ill persons stayed put on the front lines in the trenches while the gravely ill were sent back to crowded field hospitals on packed transports, thus helping to spread the more deadly second wave.
@mas1581 and everyone: Gentle reminder to all: There are a lot of statements flying around the Internet about what will and will not happen and what is and is not true. Please give us links to medical research for these statements so we can evaluate them. If the statements are from intuition, then fine, but please say that so we can evaluate them with that in mind. Thanks. :-)