Thanks a lot Stu for that brief run-down. I've been receiving the Guardian's Brexit weekly update since right after the 2016 referendum, and even for me the machinations in Westminster are becoming more than head-spinning.
One possible outcome to this that no one seems to want to acknowledge (understandably) is an accidental no-deal Brexit. Conventional wisdom has it that there is "no way" the EU 27 would reject an Article 50 extension for fear of a chaotic Brexit. Yet the same consensus agreed there was "no way" Trump would become US president or that Britons would vote to leave the EU in the first place.
As you mentioned, Stu, a cliff-edge Brexit could be brought about by the Eurosceptic lobbying efforts in Poland, Hungary, or Italy. Yet patience with the UK seems to be wearing thin across the entire continent, and even loyal EU members are afflicted with a hubristic belief that they have all of the cards and are capable of weathering a no-deal scenario. So perhaps even a core EU country could be tempted to cut Britain loose.
This whole back and forth between London and Brussels is a clash of wills that could very well bring about mutually assured destruction. Of course, no one except the most hard-line of Brexiteers and Putin-backed politicians wants that to happen, but reason is in short supply these days.
Excuse. my ignorance of British Law and EU Law - WHY can there not be a second referendum to either uphold or withdraw the Brexit altogether? Is there no further input from the public?
Hi Laura. Another referendum is possible, but it would only come about if the EU agrees to extend negotiations beyond summer of 2019 (as it stands, talks are supposed to end on March 29th). But Parliament has to approve of a new referendum in the first place, and there's no guarantee enough lawmakers will back that option. I suggest reading this article from the Guardian, which comes with a handy little flowchart that maps out all of the various ways the Brexit process could unfold.
The prospect of a re-do vote raises lots of thorny questions about the integrity of democratic governance, however. This excellent analysis from the New York Times explains the possible pitfalls of a second referendum.
Ouch and Ugh!
This is not going to end well.
The EU will only agree to a short delay to Brexit if MPs approve the current withdrawal agreement next week, Theresa May has been told.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47636011
Theresa May's Brext deal is being debated about for a third time. Jeremy Corbyn is opposed to the deal, as are the DUP and some of her own party. Mr. Corbyn wants a General Election, and he may get his wish, with some sources stating that Mrs. May will call a General Election if her deal fails again. Mrs. May has already decided that if her deal passes she will resign and let someone else from her party take over as Prime Minister.
The MP's rejected May's withdrawal agreement, again. Labor says May must go. Thousands of "leave" supporters are protesting by Parliament. Today was the day Brexit was originally supposed to happen. The next date is now April 12th though I don't see how that will happen. I will be in the UK at that time visiting my daughter, it should be interesting. She has be getting a first hand look at a very interesting time in history. Her university keeps holding information meetings and support groups for all the EU students who have been riding the roller coaster alongside the Brits and who still don't know how this will effect their studies there in in the future. I asked her how students are feeling today and she said most are just waiting and watching. She feels the jury is still out on which country is dealing with a worse situation, the US or the UK but she is leaning UK right now.
Nearly one million people went on the Peoples March asking for the second referendum. There was no violence. People came to London from all over the country. Of course Mrs May ignored them, big mistake. Her party is finished. Nearly 6 million people signed the petition asking for article 50 to be revoked, she ignored that too, she keeps on talking about the will of the people like a broken record. She forgets about the 48% of voters, completely ignoring them, most likely that number is much higher now. She should just agree to hold the second referendum, so people can have the final say, knowing all the facts what leaving actually means, because leave campaign was based on lies, lies and more lies, false promises and fueled by foreign money. They want to weaken the Europe.
The mood has changed and many, many people who voted leave and thought that leaving will be easy and we will still be able to enjoy all the benefits of the membership have changed their mind, at the time of the referendum they didn't fully understand what being part of the EU actually means and all the benefits. From economic benefits to human rights, workers rights, food standards etc Lots of young people who were too young to vote in 2016 can vote now and they would mostly vote remain. And that is their future that is affected the most.
If Mr Corbyn wants to be a PM he will have to get behind the second referendum and put it on their manifesto.
Yesterday's protests were lots of right wing drunks shouting vile abuse at police and press.
I keep on thinking about Zorons predictions some time ago, that eventually we will crash out and eventually it will lead to break down of the United Kingdom. I wonder if the timeline has changed after all this time and if there is a chance of leaving with a decent deal or remain?
Nearly one million people went on the Peoples March asking for the second referendum. There was no violence. People came to London from all over the country. Of course Mrs May ignored them, big mistake. Her party is finished. Nearly 6 million people signed the petition asking for article 50 to be revoked, she ignored that too, she keeps on talking about the will of the people like a broken record. She forgets about the 48% of voters, completely ignoring them, most likely that number is much higher now. She should just agree to hold the second referendum, so people can have the final say, knowing all the facts what leaving actually means, because leave campaign was based on lies, lies and more lies, false promises and fueled by foreign money. They want to weaken the Europe.
The mood has changed and many, many people who voted leave and thought that leaving will be easy and we will still be able to enjoy all the benefits of the membership have changed their mind, at the time of the referendum they didn't fully understand what being part of the EU actually means and all the benefits. From economic benefits to human rights, workers rights, food standards etc Lots of young people who were too young to vote in 2016 can vote now and they would mostly vote remain. And that is their future that is affected the most.
If Mr Corbyn wants to be a PM he will have to get behind the second referendum and put it on their manifesto.
Yesterday's protests were lots of right wing drunks shouting vile abuse at police and press.
I keep on thinking about Zorons predictions some time ago, that eventually we will crash out and eventually it will lead to break down of the United Kingdom. I wonder if the timeline has changed after all this time and if there is a chance of leaving with a decent deal or remain?
Mr. Corbyn already has it at least partially in the manifesto, but that is decided by members. I really hope Mr. Corbyn can form government, as the UK is being really stifled by Austerity.
Has anyone done any further predictions on Brexit? My reading up until end of March (posted above, sorry I didn't specify the timeline in the post) seems to have been correct and I've done another one for the next 4 months, but I'd love to hear other's input on what they are forseeing.