UKisland, this deal may have all the disadvantages of being in the EU plus all the problems of being out of the EU during the transition period, but after the transition period Britain is going to be definitely out of the EU. So don't worry, you'll get what you want eventually.
The dominant future I'm getting right now is that this deal goes through and May stays in power. But I'm getting another strong option, that has been pretty strong for a long time and has never gone away, and it's that May is ousted out of power before the end of this year. After that, the UK will get a national unity government with the Tories and Labour united, because the Tories can't go on alone after that. The current deal with only minor tweaks will then be approved in Parliament. But the important thing is that the current deal still leaves a lot of things undecided, and the rest will be decided by both Tories and Labour during the transition period.
Thankyou for your input and informative post. I just feel drained regardless of people's wanted outcome we need to stick on this. A second referendum would really add fuel to the fire. But I can agree may has to resign I would sooner see the UK stay together more then anything, yes I want brexit as well.
Maria D White, thank you for your predictions, I read them with great interest. These are very difficult times of uncertainty for literally everyone. Small businesses don't know if they will be able to survive after the transition period, manufacturers(especially small manufacturers, and there are many of us) wont have free access to valuable EU market, pound value is falling by day. This is very sad as people have put years of hard work to build a business... Unfortunately we see what right wing mentality does to the country when we look at US. People have short memory. If we look at the history we never had it this good in Europe. Peace for such a long time which is most important and of course financially people are having so much more opportunities. I pray that this terrible thing never happens.
Been having computer issues, that's why I haven't been posting on this forum lately. Now I'm back online.
As an update to the Brexit situation, the option of May being forced out and heading towards a national unity government is now the dominant one.
A second referendum is still rather unlikely. The main obstacle is: what would the question be? If MPs cannot agree on a deal, they won't agree on a question, either.
Dina, I completely understand your concern about small manufacturers, since I work for a small manufacturer myself. But you have to understand that small manufacturers aren't all in the same position when in comes to Brexit. It depends on where your suppliers are and whether you export or not to the EU. Many small manufacturers sell only to Britain, and would welcome barriers to EU competitors (though it's unlikely that there will be huge barriers). It also depends on how specialized your products are, in other words, whether your customers are willing to accept higher prices if you have to sell at higher prices because they have few or no other options. So it's a rather mixed bag: some small manufacturers will be harmed by Brexit, some will benefit, and some will see little difference in the end.
I know that it's been said the EU has guaranteed peace, but trade links didn't guarantee peace before the First or Second World Wars. And trade between different parts of Spain didn't prevent the Civil War. There are many valid reasons to be in favor of economic integration, but the idea that it guarantees peace is simply wrong.
The good news is that at least some of the uncertainty about Brexit will go away pretty soon. The bad news is that some of that uncertainty will remain. There is still plenty up in the air.
It's nice to read you again !
If May is forced out, will there be elections or someone nominated from the tories ?
I agree about trade and peace. Unfortunately. We have been told a tale.
I wouldn't have supported pro-leave if I were British but now I start to think it might not be so bad regarding the situation on Europe.
Breaking news on Brexit deal:
"Theresa May pulls plug on Brexit vote amid 'widespread concern' over Northern Ireland backstop."
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/10/uk/brexit-vote-delay-theresa-may-gbr-intl/index.html
You may have seen in the news that May has just won a vote of no confidence. This doesn't mean that she gets to stay, though. In the US it's terribly difficult to get the president out of office, but in Europe it's generally relatively easy to get rid of a country leader that isn't doing their job properly, and there are usually several mechanisms for this, that vary from country to country.
In the case of the UK, there are two different mechanisms: the prime minister can be booted out by people of her own party, which is the vote that has just happened. Or she can be booted out by the opposition. This is very likely to happen next, and this is the vote that she's likely to lose.
After that vote of no confidence, because it would be triggered by Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, once May gets ousted it would be for him to either cobble together an alternative government, or if he can't, snap elections would happen. Brexit is pending and Europe is unwilling to delay Brexit day for very long, because EU elections will be happening in June and they are unwilling for the UK to participate in them if the UK is leaving. That means the most likely scenario is that a national unity government will be cobbled together, with a buch of Labour and Tory MPs that can agree on enough about Brexit to get some kind of deal on Brexit day (possibly delayed a little). And after the deadline they can call for snap elections.
It may sound strange that a national unity government can work, but when it comes to Brexit, the divisions go right across party lines. There are Remainers and Brexiteers on both parties. There are more Remainers in Labour and more Brexiteers in the Tory Party, but still enough of the others that trying to pass a deal while sticking to party lines is not really doable. Still, there are big differences among the parties, so there is no guarantee that a national unity government will work and manage a deal, no matter how limited and fuzzy. But it's the only option with realistic chances of working.
It's hard to tell who will be the prime minister of that government because the situation is still very fluid and timelines are moving all the time. I think the prime minister will be a Tory on account that it's the party with the most seats, and clearly it can't be May after the vote of no confidence. I'm getting Boris Johnson as the most likely one, but definitely others have a good chance as well. The deputy prime minister would be Jeremy Corbyn and in practice both of them would ask to be treated as equals to stress the intention of keeping things united until elections are called.
On the possibility of a second referendum, I don't see it happening. There have been some questions about the legality of some of the Brexit campaign financing, but nobody has argued that they are serious enough to justify repeating the referendum, and if it hasn't happened by now it means it isn't going to happen. People who talk about a second referendum always stay vague on specifics, because when you come down to the specifics, it becomes clear how difficult it is. There is little justification for just repeating the same question. If the second referendum is going to ask a different question, what is it going to be? You would need to get a majority of MPs to agree on that question. If there weren't deadlines coming fast, the government could agree on some sort of deal and have a referendum between that deal and staying in the EU, but there isn't enough time for that. Having a second referendum goes through persuading the EU to give the extra time for that, and the EU would say that if the UK is serious about that, please cancel article 50 first. And there aren't the MPs to cancel article 50 right now. Many Remainers make the mistake of thinking that Labour is solidly Remainer. It's definitely not.
Thanks, Maria! What a fascinating look in the way your government works. It will be interesting to see what happens!
An excellent read on Brexit.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-nine-lessons-of-brexit/
Or if you can't get that one it is transcribed here.
https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/
Just heard about Parliament voting against May's Brexit deal so I thought I'd bump this thread back to the top.
This is shocking news. Maria, and others in the UK or Europe, what do you see happening next? In particular, do you think there is a greater chance of another referendum now? Or does the UK just cash out of the EU with no deal in place?