I'm seeing increasing chances of Brexit happening with an incomplete deal, that is, one that is so limited that significant disruptions happen beginning on Brexit day, affecting supply of goods. Essentials like food and medicine will be covered, but not other things, leading to massive disruption for many businesses. Scotland and Cornwall will be particularly affected. At this point, the chances are about 1 in 3 but they have been increasing.
I agree. It is going to get very nasty, from day one.
I have a deep inner feeling that the UK Government actually wants a bare exit, without any links, so as to appease the extreme right of the Tory Party. They simply do not care about the impact on the ordinary people of the UK.
I somehow still hope the miracle happens and this disaster goes away. I know highly qualified people who left already and planning to leave.
Small family businesses that wont survive outside single market without an equal deal, as most of their customers are from EU. Just sad :(
Dina,
I am getting nasty visions from Scrying....... post BREXIT, within two years, but probably sooner, the UK is going to be in an uproar. Extreme right wing policies, from the Government, and illegal minority rule, (no parliamentary majority, parliament suspended by constitutional abuse, (as it was for a while in Canada) and near war in Northern Ireland. political disturbances, mass protests, and PrinceCharles arriving in the middle of it as the new King......(protests about that. People chanting: "Who elected you king Charlie"? )
The country will hover on the edge of a state of emergency. There will be regular protests and disturbances. Police will struggle to cope, and the English "Deep state" will be doing black ops and illegal things to maintain power of the establishment. It will get worse. Several outcomes, none of them good, but some worse than others.
Zoron, do you see bad job losses as a after effect of this? I think remain or leave voters can all agree this government is making a mess of the whole thing. I have a feeling the deal that we get at the end will be just pointless. How bad are these protests going to get, that is what scares me.
Things are looking even trickier now. I see now a definite possibility of a hard Brexit, that is, Brexit with no deal at all.
To clarify, this will be a temporary situation, lasting for a couple of months. Negotiations are in deadlock, so in order to unblock the deadlock I see it's possible that things will be taken down to the wire, letting the deadline pass with no agreement. Then it becomes a matter of how long Britain can endure vs France and other EU countries. In this case, I see the Brits eventually getting their way - but only just, and at a great cost, and nobody, absolutely nobody, will be happy with the resulting mess, including Brexiteers.
Parliament will be in a mess but not suspended. (By the way, constitutional abuses are technically not even possible in Britain because there is no written constitution - whatever happens and is agreed, goes). The prime minister, of course, will resign. I get the impression it isn't May by then, I think it's Gove. The Tories won't call for another general election till the appointed time because they'll know they would lose, so they'll be willing to burn through as many prime minister and cabinets as the public demands.
Ordinary people will find ways to cope. Civil servants in general will be reasonable and willing to bend the rules when it makes sense to help common people. Eventually, things will settle down.
To make things clear, I don't think this is the most likely timeline right now, but it's a possible timeline, and one that it's best to be prepared for. If you live in Britain and have a medical condition, make sure you have plenty of the sort of medical supplies that you need by Brexit day. If you have a garden, this coming winter may be a great time to plant vegetable seeds, because fresh vegetables could be in short supply. If you live in Northern Ireland, make sure you are well prepared for potential power cuts. And if you are a woman that likes to look her best even in the worst of times - remember that cosmetics are always at the bottom of the priority list, so you'd better stockpile. Don't bother with obviously essential items - there's never going to be a shortage of potatoes or pasta - but focus on things that you may need or badly want that are less common.
Are we looking at job losses, lorries stuck in Dover etc, or do you think the main stream media are over scare mongering things?
Yes to job losses and yes to lorries stuck at Dover. Car manufacturers are already planning to pull Jaguar Landrover out of Britain and build cars in Europe. The borders will be closed, the right wing Tories and UKIP will use Dover as an example of stopping illegal immigrants coming over from Calais. It will be styled in the press as saving Britain.
The press are putting fear into the UK just now with reports of stock piling and rationing, I'm trying not to read the news and to view what's happening next year. The visions are all over the place and change from week to week. I feel like Dr Strange in the new Avengers movie where I can see 14 million outcomes!
I detest the Tories and the damage they've inflicted on us BUT it's just common sense to stockpile food and medicines just now. Either that we could get to March next year and run out of food within days. There's no deal and no guarantee that the EU will agree to one.
One of my recent visions is that I can't see Theresa May as PM on Brexit Day. I think she'll be gone before Christmas.
Could we see big protests? as I keep saying no matter if you voted for brexit or not we can all agree the government are doing a shocking job.
I am an American and am closely following this thread as my daughter will be attending University for a Masters program this coming Fall in England. It is ironic how she is "trading" one government in crisis for another. Thank you for providing some ideas of what might be in short supply.
I would assume there would be major protests going on if things are going poorly with Brexit. I wonder what she can expect to happen on campus regarding protests and lack of supplies?
Thank you for updating this thread.
As an aside, has anyone thought that perhaps Russia may have or will be involved with how things go with Brexit? If they want to create upheaval, it seems Brexit would be a great choice. If Russia is influencing some US politicians, perhaps they are doing something similar in the UK? This may have been discussed previously, I am not sure but I would expect that they would LOVE to create more chaos on social media and such as March approaches.