from what I've read, many scientists believe the sea level will rise a maximum of 2.5 meters by 2100 and that the ice caps will not have fully melted, but a part of me feels they are underestimating this.
Yep, policymakers and most researchers (at least in public) are underestimating the effects of climate change big time. There's solid evidence that bodies like the IPCC water down their projections in order to please moneyed interests. But the biggest driver of this blunting effect is probably cultural. If we admit that that sea levels will rise 7 meters by 2100, then we have to relinquish all of our coastal cities, and the vast majority of people aren't ready to take that step. There's also the demonstrated fact that most people are unable to grasp the ramifications of exponential growth. But this is starting to change with this pandemic, at least for those of us paying attention.
@jeanne-mayell You've projected that 2030 will another pivot point year like 2020. But the big theme in 2030 will be climate change and a collective recognition that we're dealing with an exponential process. Can you say anything more about what will be in store for us in 9 years?
Hey @coyote
I agree with you - I think there's a lot more they don't account for- but more of this will hopefully be revealed soon and that will mean a more accelerated effort to do something. But it could take another 5 years before that happens, I really hope not though.
I'm also concerned we haven't done more farming in large greenhouses right now, otherwise we will see a major interruption to food supplies globally due to drought and other extreme conditions. It all seems like an afterthought all the time - very much like how slow some countries have been to deal with covid - and I include the UK in that.
It will be interesting to see what Jeanne has to say about the next 9 years.
from what I've read, many scientists believe the sea level will rise a maximum of 2.5 meters by 2100 and that the ice caps will not have fully melted, but a part of me feels they are underestimating this.
Yep, policymakers and most researchers (at least in public) are underestimating the effects of climate change big time.
The climate system is highly complex and there are many potential unpredictable/unknown events that might potentially perturb it. Science can only give you the "best odds given what we know now".
But the key point is that it is not important right now whether we are under- or over-estimating the degree of climate change and its consequences.
People in general just need to understand that screwing with the climate system-- which we KNOW we are doing taking by carbon (fossil fuels) out of the ground and spewing it into the atmosphere as CO2-- is an act that has potential for very very serious consequences. One thing we DO know pretty much for certain is that CO2 traps heat in the atmosphere. So here we are, leaning on the climate balance pan harder and harder and harder and expecting/hoping it won't tip. We may not know exactly when it will tip, or how violently it will tip, but we know for sure we're leaning on it and that leaning on it can tip it. And that's really all we need to know. The risks far outweigh any short-term advantages in "business as usual". We need to just take our thumbs off the balance pan and leave the d*mn thing alone. (Should have done it while ago.)
(The phrase "Don't poke the bear" also comes to mind-- with the climate system as the bear. I mean, you don't know for sure how the bear will react, but you just need to know the potential is there for serious violence. So you don't poke it.)
from what I've read, many scientists believe the sea level will rise a maximum of 2.5 meters by 2100 and that the ice caps will not have fully melted, but a part of me feels they are underestimating this.
@luminous You are correct that they are vastly underestimating it. Sea level rise is something I've been looking at for a decade. I get at least 20 feet sea level rise by 2100. It will be higher in some places, like the Eastern Seaboard. I just know it. Where did you get 2.5 meters? It's too low, although it's much higher than what they used to predict. I see Southern Florida under water by 2100. Barrier islands, like Vero Beach, Clearwater Beach, will be gone long before that. I have lived in and loved both these places.
The most prescient climate scientist has been James Hansen, the former NASA scientist during Bush who initially rang the alarm when the Administration tried to muzzle him.
Hansen is the only one who has the science and the intuitive ability together. I haven't kept up with the latest studies so would love to hear if he has revised his 2016 predictions.
@coyote, I agree that sea level rise is only part of the future picture. But it's easier to gage than the other aspects of climate warming, such as drought, wind speed, fires, extreme storms, species death and pestilence. Sea level Rise is also an indicator of the extent of global warming. By the time we reach 20 feet sea level rise, the other indicators will be off the charts.
@jeanne-mayell You've projected that 2030 will another pivot point year like 2020. But the big theme in 2030 will be climate change and a collective recognition that we're dealing with an exponential process. Can you say anything more about what will be in store for us in 9 years?
Just did a quick vision. When I read your question, I see storms at a level never seen before, and frequent enough for people to realize we have to change housing construction in some areas to deal with these storms. At the moment I am seeing tropical areas, palm trees bending sideways, torrential rains, extraordinary high winds. Cars rolling over like tumble weed. In the West, fires will cause more migration. And drought will change the rules about what can be grown. New drought-resistant staples. Infrastructure changes big time: all electric cars, no more gas stations, just electric fueling stations, home heating will be changed. It's going to be a big march towards all sustainable fuel.
The storms and fires will be in the news, but we will be okay. We've weathered worse in the political landscape. People will become activated and there will be so many helpers devoting their lives to helping people adjust to the new normal.
I think I got that figure from:
Both the low-end and “worst-case” possibilities were revised upward in 2017 following a review by the U.S. Interagency Sea Level Rise Taskforce. Based on their new scenarios, global sea level is very likely to rise at least 12 inches (0.3 meters) above 2000 levels by 2100 even on a low-emissions pathway. On future pathways with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, sea level rise could be as high as 8.2 feet (2.5 meters) above 2000 levels by 2100.
Oh and wow to your vision. Thanks for sharing that. I really hope we can also be smart at protecting marine life somehow when the temperature of the oceans change. I feel very concerned about food shortages due to farming being affected as well. We don't seem to be preparing for this very well.
I'm not going to lie, I'm terrified of what is going to happen with the changing climate but I know that eventually, we'll pull through. When I think about 2030+ till 2100 I have two subjects in my mind first "Climate Change" and second "Rebuilding". I also believe that in next 10-20years onward animal conservation would gain a lot of momentum and importance and while lots of species would go extinct in the wild,I think that many of them would be secured by the efforts of zoos and the governments to preserve as much of them as possible in captivity.
As for the ocean, I think we'll find a way to create efficient cooling machinery to help with the worst hot spots. Not a cure-it-all solution but something that would help at least partially. I remember seeing a project of that kind on the internet, it has been a while ago but I think it might have worked by releasing small ice caps or something similar, I'm not entirely sure but the machine definitely stuck out to me at that time.
Unfortunately, some lessons are harsh and hard to learn but ultimately the disaster would teach us love and respect we somewhat lost along the way. As much as the situation is dire I think it has to happen one way or another for us as a whole to change our ways.
@ana @polka, I feel we are going to make it as well and I appreciate your hopeful attitudes. I am hopeful too. But I'm not comfortable with the arrogant attitude of years' back that technology will solve the climate problem. Global warming happened because the drivers of our civilization are so arrogant that they think they can continue living as we always have, consuming more and more, treating the earth like a waste dump and endless supply house. So first we have to realize who is the boss -- it's Mother Earth.
Two comments I got to a climate prediction article I posted eight years show that people simply don't understand the sheer size of the earth compared to our piddling selves. Here's one:
Comment: Could a large lake be built to drain off the rising water from climate change?
Jeanne: That’s an interesting question that helps us get a sense of the situation we are in. The seas cover 70% of the globe. To reduce the sea level rise by only 1 ft, you would need 3 ft of water on all the earth’s land. If the seas rise just 20 feet, (and eventually they will rise 220 feet), a rough calculation is that the lake would cover the whole U.S. and be about 70 feet deep, give or take 10 feet. Once all the earth’s ice melts, and it will melt, that lake will be 700 feet deep not to mention, how the heck are we going to move all that water to heights that are way above seal level?
@jeanne-mayell You're right, maybe I was overly optimistic ^^''' I hope that we'll find a balance between technology and nature at some point. I think that we (as a humans) thought we are above nature for so long we forgot we part of it. Its about time we started to return to it instead of taking from it.
You also right with saying that Mother Earth is the boss, she knows what to do. Oddly enough, although I'm terrified of all the changes I also anticipate them at the same time, afterall it has to get bad in order to get better.